ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And that is more impressive than both the NAM and GFS initialized with and it also could be causing model chaos for both. Bottom line though remains, will the primary phase, transfer and weaken and die out earlier than the NAM and GFS continue to show. Problem is both models initialized wrong so both models are having inherent issues, especially the Nam with its high res, like I said lets see the full 00z suite especially the euro. The euro is usually very consistent and does very well in handling THESE types of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One thing is for sure....its going to be windy! Probably going to have a lot of power outages across the area due to high winds and wet snow RE: LI and NYC from NOAA HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE NYC METRO EAST...CT AND LI. MODEL WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE RUNNING 50 TO 65 KT...EQUATING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI. THESE WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE TREAT WILL BE OUTLINED IN THE WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The ECMWF went east for one run before the Boxing day blizzard. This storm is not so straight forward, the models are having a tough time at it except the great and powerful ECMWF. So we need to see the 12Z runs before a true forecast can be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I feel like a broken record...SREF's have been generally unimpressive for NYC and south. A lot can happen still and wobbles are expected...however, it's smart to never disregard the NAM completely. agreed to some extent, although the latest srefs are pretty impressive for nyc. and you cant possibly think the nam is in the same league as the euro until about 36 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I feel like a broken record...SREF's have been generally unimpressive for NYC and south. A lot can happen still and wobbles are expected...however, it's smart to never disregard the NAM completely. The SREF's are nice for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the thing that is different about the gfs is actually it isnt nearly the SNE bomb most models have predicted--in fact in terms of snowfall it backtracked a lot more for them than our area The late phase in a very odd way sort of helps us because the primary remnant vort swings across Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One thing is for sure....its going to be windy! Probably going to have a lot of power outages across the area due to high winds and wet snow RE: LI and NYC from NOAA HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE NYC METRO EAST...CT AND LI. MODEL WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE RUNNING 50 TO 65 KT...EQUATING TO 25 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH 50 TO 65 MPH GUSTS POTENTIAL. HIGHEST WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN LI. THESE WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. THE TREAT WILL BE OUTLINED IN THE WSW. Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Problem is both models initialized wrong so both models are having inherent issues, especially the Nam with its high res, like I said lets see the full 00z suite especially the euro. The euro is usually very consistent and does very well in handling THESE types of storms How do we know the models initialized wrong? The "initialization error" lifeline is one of the more annoying out there. And even if it did somehow, the corrections might not be favorable for us anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will not dismiss any of the models at this point. I will say that the GFS is still has a very nice deformation band for the NYC/NJ/E PA region. In fact, it would not shock me if the deformation band produced high snowfall rates than the CCB snow over BOS for a period of time. One thing to usually lean on...cut the WAA QPF in half and double the deformation QPF. This could still be quite a thump if the GFS verifies. agreed to some extent, although the latest srefs are pretty impressive for nyc. and you cant possibly think the nam is in the same league as the euro until about 36 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know WXOUTLOOKS said he expected it might take 12-24 hours for the other models to come around to the Euro. Perhaps he can say whether he still feels they will yield to the Euro. He seems to have a good handle on things and doesn't exaggerate things. Hoping he posts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just realized that the PSU Ewall SREF's haven't updated yet. The SREF's are nice for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will not dismiss any of the models at this point. I will say that the GFS is still has a very nice deformation band for the NYC/NJ/E PA region. In fact, it would not shock me if the deformation band produced high snowfall rates than the CCB snow over BOS for a period of time. One thing to usually lean on...cut the WAA QPF in half and double the deformation QPF. This could still be quite a thump if the GFS verifies. How much of that kind of snow would get shut off though as the main storm gets going well east? Sometimes to me that seems over done. But again, I could see how it generates a few inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 storm at sea...i agree with you about the GFS it ends up being an alternate way we see decent snow. In other words, its possible this isn't as "all or nothing" as we though. Really what it means is that we need to temper our expectations until the point we see model consistency, because as of now everything remains on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NOGAPS almost looks just like the NAM and GFS, I know there is one psoter in the SNE thread who says when the NOGAPS agrees with the other guidnace it always means the other models are about to make some sort of big shift, I guess implying the NOGAPS is so bad it never should agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just realized that the PSU Ewall SREF's haven't updated yet. Take a look at these: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=EWR&INC=ALL&NNC&max&min&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.09882475551627&mLON=-74.070240625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How do we know the models initialized wrong? The "initialization error" lifeline is one of the more annoying out there. And even if it did somehow, the corrections might not be favorable for us anyway. Because they mis-depicted what is going on with the energy down in the south right now. You can't make it sound like that unmodeled gulf of Mexico convection has never negatively impacted model outcomes. There are multiple instances of this happening in the past for both the GFS and the NAM. What I agree with though is this still all comes down to getting a timely phase/coastal transfer/primary death for us to see a more wintry outcome than was shown on the GFS and NAM tonight. If or if it doesn't happen is impossible to know just yet, all we can do is account for biases look at the solutions shown and watch in future runs to see what changes if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How do we know the models initialized wrong? The "initialization error" lifeline is one of the more annoying out there. And even if it did somehow, the corrections might not be favorable for us anyway. The Nam without a doubt did, just look at the differnece between current radar in gulf and the 00z presentation / 6 hrs out. The gfs at first glance appears to as well. While the initialization errors may or may not be a saving grace in this scenario, I cannot tell you. However, the Nam especially since its high res, will lead to major issues at later hours, ie. 48 hours out. Errors at the beginning lead to serious' errors at the end. For example say we were taking 2x2 18 times (2 to the 18th ) and started it as 1.99 to the 18th, work the math out and you have a drastically different result. Would thisead to more snow if it initialized correctly? That I cant say, but what I can say is now you need more info and to look deeper I to the problem, ie lets see what happens and wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The issue I primarily see is the speed at which the southern wave tries to move. I'd be a lot more comfortable if it slowed down so the northern wave catches it earlier. It does seem to be trending faster, which is counterproductive even if the northern stream amps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM just does not look right. The NOGAPS almost looks just like the NAM and GFS, I know there is one psoter in the SNE thread who says when the NOGAPS agrees with the other guidnace it always means the other models are about to make some sort of big shift, I guess implying the NOGAPS is so bad it never should agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM just does not look right. The convective impact idea is usually bogus but its possible here for sure. The NAM looks funny and the GFS looks very odd from about 39-45 hours in its precip fields, almost like some sort of convective junk is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ggem running 36 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif 48 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Will be interested to see what the canadian and ecmwf do, just looked at the nogaps for the hell of it. This is looking more and more like a 3-6 or 4-8 event for the city, more east/northeast and less west and northwest of nyc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looking at the GFS again, it wouldn't take much of a shift west to be back in the 2 - 3" liquid range again and the SE Bias could be in effect. Really interested in what the Euro will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 2 years without seeing a 8 inch storm. And people complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That 48hr Gem is looking very close to the 00Z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Comparison of NAM and GFS 00z... GFS is overall weaker... NYC 4 to 8 inches with about 2 to 4 inches on LI. NAM actually had a very strong storm but phased further east- hence the huge totals shifted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Euro doesn't budge , then it's a wrap for me. How many times do pp have to see this model have to hit a big ticket items before they buy it . Most in the private forecasting sector base so much of what they do off it and their revenue streams speak for themselves Maybe this time after being rock steady for 4 days , this is the time it blows up , but like I said if its a carbon copy of it's previous runs its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Euro doesn't budge , then it's a wrap for me. How many times do pp have to see this model have to hit a big ticket items before they buy it . Most in the private forecasting sector base so much of what they do off it and their revenue streams speak for themselves Maybe this time after being rock steady for 4 days , this is the time it blows up , but like I said if its a carbon copy of it's previous runs its done. I actually would not be surprised if the 0z Euro actually trends to it's 12z ensembles. We'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That 48hr Gem is looking very close to the 00Z GFS run. 60hr throws back some mod snow but its further east than the gfs and likely less qpf http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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