CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how can there be so little run to run continuity (other than the euro - but the UKMET being so far off might be a pre-cursor)... The gulf convection, the 2 streams, and the phase. TOrture for us and the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z guidance has not been encouraging, pretty depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NYC 4-8 on 00z gfs 2-4 cnj 12-15 for Boston Actually coastal c nj same as ny Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agreed, I think the GFS is showing a decent compromise between the crazy snowbomb and the paltry late phase of the NAM. I'd sign off on it. If you think this is set in stone, you don't know much about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Actually coastal c nj same as nyRossiNo it's not on SV snow maps4 inch line runs through Driscoll bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Funny how earlier in the thread people were saying the GFS looks like NAM?..NAM is nothing and GFS is 8 inches..will you please let the run finish..Haven't any of you learned anything about model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is warning criteria don't know why anyone would wanna puke that depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd take that snowfall easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Okay- so NAM picked up on something and it looks like RGEM and GFS are also trending towards NAM. SREF is the only model today to trend well. So the question is- what did NAM see, and what should we expect from the 00z Euro? Is there new data being picked up by the weather balloons? I'm not so sure the NAM picked up on anything, it was completely clueless and I think backed its way into the idea of a less phased solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The gulf convection, the 2 streams, and the phase. TOrture for us and the models The southern stream wave continues to looks nice on radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is warning criteria don't know why anyone would wanna puke that depiction The manner in which it delivers the snows is a bit odd, you sort of would rather see the snows come from the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is warning criteria don't know why anyone would wanna puke that depiction Because we have spoiled weenies here who think every year your supposed to get a 20 inch snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The UKMET has been putrid this year. thats not the answer.... almost every model has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd take that snowfall easily. Agree. This thread is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you think this is set in stone, you don't know much about weather. Just said I'd sign off on it, as in I would take that solution if it were the final result. Looks reasonable to me, and is a decent compromise between the rivaling model solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The EURO found this storm, the EURO will save this storm. If I wake up in the morning and the EURO has followed the GFS, the odds at anything big plunge rapidly. Tonight is 24 hours out, and, if the models were going to make a change, they are going to do it tonight. Not liking the trend, but, for all you EURO watchers staying up, stay positive, good luck, and THINK SNOW!!! -skisheep This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The southern stream wave continues to looks nice on radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Yea a lot of it is even out of radar range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Man, So much is hinging on the Euro now, next 2 hours will be agony for me Haha yup. The waiting game is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The EURO found this storm, the EURO will save this storm. If I wake up in the morning and the EURO has followed the GFS, the odds at anything big plunge rapidly. Tonight is 24 hours out, and, if the models were going to make a change, they are going to do it tonight. Not liking the trend, but, for all you EURO watchers staying up, stay positive, good luck, and THINK SNOW!!! -skisheep you do realize the models dont control the weather right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agree. This thread is a disaster yes were are the moderators? anyway gfs still a decent hit of snow especially compared to what we have had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The manner in which it delivers the snows is a bit odd, you sort of would rather see the snows come from the CCB. Looks like it does at hr 54 and 60. It's robust enough for me. Theres an inch of liq onto long island. 75perc frozen Don't think we should expect anything more. Ths was always a sne bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS snowmap still shows 4-8 inches for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The southern stream wave continues to looks nice on radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes And that is more impressive than both the NAM and GFS initialized with and it also could be causing model chaos for both. Bottom line though remains, will the primary phase, transfer and weaken and die out earlier than the NAM and GFS continue to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like it does at hr 54 and 60. It's robust enough for me. Theres an inch of liq onto long island. 75perc frozen Don't think we should expect anything more. Ths was always a sne bomb the thing that is different about the gfs is actually it isnt nearly the SNE bomb most models have predicted--in fact in terms of snowfall it backtracked a lot more for them than our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And that is more impressive than both the NAM and GFS initialized with and it also could be causing model chaos for both. Bottom line though remains, will the primary phase, transfer and weaken and die out earlier than the NAM and GFS continue to show. There could be convective feedback issues, the models can sometimes "burp" once or twice in a dynamic situation like this, but if the guidance unanimously swings east, especially the Euro, I think most of us can eliminate the chance of a significant-major event, outside of maybe eastern LI and much of CT. Doesn't mean there won't be a few inches though. The progressive flow and lack of a block worried me from second one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 you do realize the models dont control the weather right? +10000 THIS THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the thing that is different about the gfs is actually it isnt nearly the SNE bomb most models have predicted--in fact in terms of snowfall it backtracked a lot more for them than our area Yup and they even have surface temperature issues part of the time. Text output suggests they'd only manage a foot of snow. Hardly a Federal disaster area or worthy of closing their ports other than maybe a smart thing to do due to wind concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I feel like a broken record...SREF's have been generally unimpressive for NYC and south. A lot can happen still and wobbles are expected...however, it's smart to never disregard the NAM completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yup and they even have surface temperature issues part of the time. Text output suggests they'd only manage a foot of snow. yeah there are oother differences, but i would not call the 0z gfs an sne bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 And that is more impressive than both the NAM and GFS initialized with and it also could be causing model chaos for both. Bottom line though remains, will the primary phase, transfer and weaken and die out earlier than the NAM and GFS continue to show. Problem is both models initialized wrong so both models are having inherent issues, especially the Nam with its high res, like I said lets see the full 00z suite especially the euro. The euro is usually very consistent and does very well in handling THESE types of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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