Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 45 it's further east. Surface 32 line north of Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This run is not going to be much snow and Boston will not be getting 2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 go to plymouth state I saw it. That's really bad that it went that far east. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not giving up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know many say to ignore the NAM....as I said in a previous post....I've seen the GFS cave to the NAM and....hmmm, ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 UKMET hasn't updated on meteocentre for me yet. here it is..WHIFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I, literally, take nothing that you say here, seriously. But, theyre actually a 21z model. Feel free to ask someone with more expertise but I'm about 100% sure they initialize at 21UTC and do not ingest 00z observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Light snow at hr 51. Mod snow in sne 984 well se of benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 54 mod snow for area. 2nd deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 57 mod snow still, two separate areas of heavy snow. Se sne and over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not liking this at all. Looks like 0z was a good time to start setting expectations. If the rest of the guidance trends out to sea and/or late phase, I'm writing this off (for the immediate metro and points west). The progressive pattern this year just won't be denied. Ahh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the trends tonight arent great, to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can someone clean up this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 60 still light to mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still about 4-7" for the area actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Don't live and die with one model suite. Good chance things will change again tomorrow. The Euro has been the most consistent. Lets hope that it holds serve at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This 12 hour precip prog shows 12 hours of precip that falls after the changeover for our area. Looks like a solid 4-8" event is still on the table guys. No need to fret. GFS actually looks like a decent colder solution. It's no foot and a half 18z craziness, but its a whole lot nicer than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Okay- so NAM picked up on something and it looks like RGEM and GFS are also trending towards NAM. SREF is the only model today to trend well. So the question is- what did NAM see, and what should we expect from the 00z Euro? Is there new data being picked up by the weather balloons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how can there be so little run to run continuity (other than the euro - but the UKMET being so far off might be a pre-cursor)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. how did we lose the nam we never had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. how did we lose the nam we never had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NYC 4-8 on 00z gfs 2-4 cnj 12-15 for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LOL - typical response and the reason no mets post here You think saying the euro is 75 25 frozen is a bold statement ? Precip starts as rain at hr 54 .25 falls 850 s crash before hr 60. 850s r minus 3 at that time. .50 falls. Hr 66 850 minus 4 .50 falls hr 72 850s minus 10 .25 falls. If that's 50 50 u got me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how did we lose the nam we never had As I have stated, the 4km 18z NAM gave me 28" of snow, apparently people can't read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still 0.75"+ for the area and 1.0"+ from the city eastward with a good portion of this as snow. Still a solid warning criteria event. Nothing historic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Remember 12/26/10? Models did the same thing, well not exactly, and euro held serve. Lets see what euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 how can there be so little run to run continuity (other than the euro - but the UKMET being so far off might be a pre-cursor)... The UKMET has been putrid this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is still about 4-7" for the area actually How can anyone complain about 4 to 8 after this and last winter Grow up Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Agreed, I think the GFS is showing a decent compromise between the crazy snowbomb and the paltry late phase of the NAM. I'd sign off on it. GFS is still 0.75"+ for the area and 1.0"+ from the city eastward with a good portion of this as snow. Still a solid warning criteria event. Nothing historic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This 12 hour precip prog shows 12 hours of precip that falls after the changeover for our area. Looks like a solid 4-8" event is still on the table guys. No need to fret. GFS actually looks like a decent colder solution. It's no foot and a half 18z craziness, but its a whole lot nicer than the NAM It's hard for me to see much precip that far west if the phase is so late. The entire mechanism for transporting the precip west is dependent on that phase and closing off of mid level centers, really. Just out of morbid curiosity I might hang on this threat until 12z completes tomorrow, but if the rest of the guidance, especially Euro trend east tonight it's really a bad sign IMO. Look at how progressive the other systems we've had have been this year, and at the last minute in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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