Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. We didn't "lose" the NAM. The NAM trended much better today. I don't like the RGEM doing what it did, but it still looked decent with its synoptic evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I predict that half an hour from now, everyone here who was partying 6 hours ago will be screaming bloody murder. How on earth is this dude not 5 posted or banned. He's been trolling all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Majority of qpf was rain even for Boston. Bufkit showed all snow for Boston on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. Wait what? The NAM trended towards the Euro/GFS. Settle down everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 in no way did we lose the NAM, it trended big time.... we never actually had the nam, more like we "lost" the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00Z GFS initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wait what? The NAM trended towards the Euro/GFS. Settle down everybody. Not by much though. more importantly, it's still holding strongly to the primary, which is helping kick out a lot of the moisture to the east, and this bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Majority of qpf was rain even for Boston. Bufkit showed all snow for Boston on the 0z NAM. Yep...Boston has been pretty much all snow on pretty much every model. This storm looks to be locked in for them to receive around 2-3 feet of snow. Such a high confidence forecast for them. I know they will enjoy it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Bufkit showed all snow for Boston on the 0z NAM. Yes but I was referring to the 18z NAM. I could have sworn I saw some rain in there for Boston cutting down snow totals there too. If I am incorrect, I apologize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I had the 18z 4km NAM on my side. Gave me 28" of snow! 0z, forget it. Still cautiously optimistic for the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs out to hr 24 really don't see anything diff then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Think people are not understanding this was always rain to snow. Even the ridiculous euro control rains for 6 hrs. The end result will come down too how fast we change over and at what point at the précips height does the CCB take over. The 2 to 3 inch per hour rates for 3 to 6 hours is where we get our snow totals from . This was never a100 perc snow event. So I have no issue w the RGEM and it's initial precip outbreak. My prob w the nam is its holding onto to the northern branch too long and I think that's an error . The nam is just too slow in the handoff The euro is def the coldest , so mayb a tick higher makes sense too me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If the Nam and RGEM are right. no - the GFS is a bunch of rain and Don S confirmed about half of the QPF on the euro was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z SREF:colder more precip nam: trending closer but still a miss rgem: warmer but it does have that tendency still good track phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Oh brother. Ukie is a big miss. Wayyy off shore. GFS looks very different from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Cad really showing up well now on 00z gfs Hr 33 1000 south of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Very delicate situation here....we are really right on the edge. Either need it to phase earlier and wind up sooner....or else it could phase later and give us rain/snow ahowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Cad really showing up well now on 00z gfs Hr 33 1000 south of hse GFS is going to be east. Only good news so far tonight is the SREFs. Every other model has gone the wrong direction, some in a BIG way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The rgem looks nothing like the nam. Pretty big hit for the NW burbs. Good coastal development. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html It's a step backwards for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 00z GFS has more CAD than 18z. Nrn stream slightly further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Oh brother. Ukie is a big miss. Wayyy off shore. GFS looks very different from 18z. UKMET hasn't updated on meteocentre for me yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs out to hr 24 really don't see anything diff then 18z there are two subtle differences...the northern vort isnt digging as much and the southern stream is slightly more amped EDIT - the southern stream isnt more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 39 tad further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is going to be east. Only good news so far tonight is the SREFs. Every other model has gone the wrong direction, some in a BIG way. SREFs should be treated like an 18z Model. they run technically at 21UTC and havent digested the 00z RAOBs information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Guess what the GFS now looks similar to ? The NAM.....hmmm....look at 36 hours on both....the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z Rgem Smokes the HV up into CT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 UKMET hasn't updated on meteocentre for me yet. I have seen it. The coastal is so far off shore that it's maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 42 light rain into area. Light mix north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 no - the GFS is a bunch of rain and Don S confirmed about half of the QPF on the euro was rain. Euro is 75 25 frozen. It's not debatable. Find a diff model to make you re point with. It's not 50 50. If don said that. All due respect I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 UKMET hasn't updated on meteocentre for me yet. go to plymouth state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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