WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well no...it still showed well over a foot Majority of qpf was rain even for Boston. No it was all snow for boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dude, models are not right and wrong seasonally. Their biases are exhibited differently during different weather patterns. What might make the NAM decent in representing norlun troughs, for example, might also make it suck at handling the players that result in a coastal bomb. the globals ended up being right last weekend, even thought it was thought that the high resolution nam and rgem were the only ones to look to in forecasting that norlun that never materialized. as I recall several posters said the globals were definitely going to be dead wrong showing no inverted trough signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z rgem aint pretty. Much warmer. How does it look with the placement and intensity of the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z rgem aint pretty. Much warmer. not so concerned with temps how is it with the development of the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No it was all snow for boston Not what I observed but maybe I missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In fact unfortunately there is a chance the models could trend toward the NAM and a later phase. I've seen it happen before. The model to modem runs aren't "trending" to themselves and aren't predetermined to do so...they simply calculate data and display it graphically. The NAM could be on to something at THIS point. At any rate...."consensus" was becoming possible for a 5-10" snow....closer to the 5" quite likely....a later phase would make it a 2-4 or 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In fact unfortunately there is a chance the models could trend toward the NAM and a later phase. I've seen it happen before. The model to modem runs aren't "trending" to themselves and aren't predetermined to do so...they simply calculate data and display it graphically. The NAM could be on to something at THIS point. At any rate...."consensus" was becoming possible for a 5-10" snow....closer to the 5" quite likely....a later phase would make it a 2-4 or 1-3 honestly with the late phase I wouldn't expect much. Yes we could get a couple inches of slop but really its kind of a wash if we don't get a timely phase. In terms of expectations we should all be aware of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The placement and intensity of the low looks about the same to me on the rgem. The primary is quite a bit stronger than the 18z run hence the warmer start precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem has been money this season.. Lets see what it shows in a few. IMO its the best short term model around. it seems warmer than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 As long as the primary doesn't hang around like the 00Z NAM, then it's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 In fact unfortunately there is a chance the models could trend toward the NAM and a later phase. I've seen it happen before. The model to modem runs aren't "trending" to themselves and aren't predetermined to do so...they simply calculate data and display it graphically. The NAM could be on to something at THIS point. At any rate...."consensus" was becoming possible for a 5-10" snow....closer to the 5" quite likely....a later phase would make it a 2-4 or 1-3 honestly with the late phase I wouldn't expect much. Yes we could get a couple inches of slop but really its kind of a wash if we don't get a timely phase. In terms of expectations we should all be aware of this. Yes....the tendency is of course to get worked up over the possibility of a huge storm....but we must keep in mind that this is a huge storm for New England....it is a significant storm here....that seems even more significant due to the lack of snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z rgem aint pretty. Much warmer. ya, thats the general theme...there will be loads of wasted QPF as rain with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The rgem looks nothing like the nam. Pretty big hit for the NW burbs. Good coastal development. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ya, thats the general theme...there will be loads of wasted QPF as rain with this storm. If the Nam and RGEM are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, seeing low placement and strength...rgem should be much colder with lots o snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the rgem isn't as bad as as it seemed. Later phase for sure though. Wonder if this is a trend. 00z gfs should let us know where we stand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, seeing low placement and strength...rgem should be much colder with lots o snow. It's the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem was one of the best models for a snowy solution here....if its pulling away its not trending in the right direction. But wow....Boston really gets hit so hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Heading into 0z, can someone give a summary of where we stand with each model, with approx snow amounts? Just want to make sure everythings clear heading into the most important runs of the winter... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem was one of the best models for a snowy solution here....if its pulling away its not trending in the right direction. But wow....Boston really gets hit so hard 1 run does not make a trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem was one of the best models for a snowy solution here....if its pulling away its not trending in the right direction. But wow....Boston really gets hit so hard 1 run does not make a trend though. True true....but when we're on the edge of a phasing system "to phase in time or not" is the key here....if it doesn't then it's more like 3" rather than 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Crossing my fingers for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not hugging it, I'm treating it as an equal to the GFS, Euro, and GEM models. it's part of the model suite and should be respected. Just because its showing something different doesnt mean its *going* to be wrong. This is true, brother, just because it is different does not mean it is going to be wrong; however I would look at what we have. A rather trustworthy model, the euro being very consistent. Other models caving to its consistency. Furthermore, the 00z nam didn't quite intialize correctly and looked to be having synoptic issues. This is esepcially problematic for the Nam since its a high res model. Furthermore I would expect the 4 km res Nam to follow suit as the even higher resolution would result in further complications due to initialization errors. While I think the Nam can be useful- at this point I would disregard it. If the 00z suite follows suit and shows a significant shift, then I would be a little more uneasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. in no way did we lose the NAM, it trended big time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So that's the NAM and RGEM now that we lost. If the 0z GFS follows, goodnight. We didn't "lose" the Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We didn't "lose" the Rgem. And we never "had" the NAM. Epic post right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 in no way did we lose the NAM, it trended big time.... Hi-res 18z NAM had me in the jackpot (28" of snow), not anymore. RGEM holds the primary longer so temps warm, most precip falls as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 RPM backed off a bit, now only 20" IMBY instead of 30" -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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