killabud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it has "trended" to a better solution every other run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I highly encourage you guys to take a look at the latest SREF plumes. Just select the location on the map that you want, and it plots each member's snowfall total, and the mean. LGA's 21z SREF mean was 11.5" of snow. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130206&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=EWR&INC=ALL&NNC&max&min&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.09882475551627&mLON=-74.070240625&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even the nam is excellent here in eastern ffld county hour upon hour of snow. Excellent run what a gradient though...6 inches in Greenwich and 12-15 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Boston gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even the nam is excellent here in eastern ffld county hour upon hour of snow. Excellent run I'm on my phone, so I can't really get a good read of the model. But wouldn't it be quite warm for us? Or do we get in on the ccb action?It looks like it trended better for us though, oh so close to the historic stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 what a gradient though...6 inches in Greenwich and 12-15 here Yes....much improved run for sure and and everyone should be encouraged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the sim radar on the 4km NAM looks like march 01 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Boston gets crushed And at 18z it showed 6 inches at best. Anyone believing this idiotic model is sliding on a very slippery slope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm on my phone, so I can't really get a good read of the model. But wouldn't it be quite warm for us? Or do we get in on the ccb action? It looks like it trended better for us though, oh so close to the historic stuff It's a very tight gradient but we do just fine about 8-10 inches better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is ewall down for the count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 News 12 NJ calling for 1-3" in the city. 3-6" for the burbs and 4-8" for Sussex and western Passaic Counties. Says mostly rain in NJ. Bad forecast in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At hour 57, the H5 low is closed off over NJ with a vortmax just off the coast of AC. On the 18z run at 63, the H5 low was still open and the vortmax was in Poughkeepsie, NY. Huge change. hence, why the NAM sux. the thing is, the NAM can absolutely be crap at 6 hours, let alone 48. i remember in january 2011, when i already had 4" on the ground at about 3am, and the 00z NAM didnt have any precip north of the mason dixon line thru 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Crud. lol I agree. Anyway, people jabbering about how the NAM is going to score a coup or how its going to lead a trend are clearly not living on planet earth. This model has had 0 consistency and the only thing we can say is that the trend from 18z to 00z is better for our area. That is all. Tomorrow morning if we are sitting looking at the models and they are suggesting a late phase with little in the way of precip here, thats a whole other story. Until then lets analyze the info we have available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes you do, youre just struggling to realize it, much like everyone else. If the GFS caves towards the NAM, we're in for some serious ****. dude...let it play out. Stop hugging the NAM it has shown 0 consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 dude...let it play out. Stop hugging the NAM it has showed 0 consistency +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hence, why the NAM sux. the thing is, the NAM can absolutely be crap at 6 hours, let alone 48. i remember in january 2011, when i already had 4" on the ground at about 3am, and the 00z NAM didnt have any precip north of the mason dixon line thru 9z. Yet if it was the other way around, and the nam had the snow storm people would be crying. Saying how can you go against the gfs/euro and its ens. It's amazing how we do this every year. I can't wait for 2pm on Friday and the city is still rain. Some great post will added Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Look at the NAM Midwest and upstate NY snows, it is hard to believe that this amount of snow will occur. In addition the southern shortwave is weak as &$%@ and it races east while it's low moves almost as slow as if I was to walk that route. The NAM is moving more towards the other models, but with this run I want my money back it is still junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Rgem has been money this season.. Lets see what it shows in a few. IMO its the best short term model around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 dude...let it play out. Stop hugging the NAM it has shown 0 consistency I agree that is nam is most likely wrong, however, I remember last weekend certain people here, not saying you, loved the nam and were hugging its prediction of a norlun trough over nyc. It's either an untrustworthy model all the time, not just when it doesn't show snow or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 fwiw the 4km NAM still shows frozen precip albeit much less than the 18z 4km NAM, but much more than the either the 18z or 00z NAM. At hr 60 with a second deform band kind of expanding Westward based on sim radar, roughly 0.6 has fallen as frozen for city on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree that is nam is most likely wrong, however, I remember last weekend certain people here, not saying you, loved the nam and were hugging its prediction of a norlun trough over nyc. It's either an untrustworthy model all the time, not just when it doesn't show snow or nothing. you are correct. And I have been guilty of this in the past, but it has truly been awful this season especially 48hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The evolution of these storms is fascinating to watch (obsessivly at tmes) regardless of the outcome. 50 mile spread here can make and brake hearts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I agree that is nam is most likely wrong, however, I remember last weekend certain people here, not saying you, loved the nam and were hugging its prediction of a norlun trough over nyc. It's either an untrustworthy model all the time, not just when it doesn't show snow or nothing. Dude, models are not right and wrong seasonally. Their biases are exhibited differently during different weather patterns. What might make the NAM decent in representing norlun troughs, for example, might also make it suck at handling the players that result in a coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Boston gets crushed And at 18z it showed 6 inches at best. Anyone believing this idiotic model is sliding on a very slippery slope. Well no...it still showed well over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 dude...let it play out. Stop hugging the NAM it has shown 0 consistency I'm not hugging it, I'm treating it as an equal to the GFS, Euro, and GEM models. it's part of the model suite and should be respected. Just because its showing something different doesnt mean its *going* to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well no...it still showed well over a foot Majority of qpf was rain even for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not hugging it, I'm treating it as an equal to the GFS, Euro, and GEM models. it's part of the model suite and should be respected. Just because its showing something different doesnt mean its *going* to be wrong. and you don't see me on here harping that "we should all watch everything is trending towards the GFS and an all out blizzard for Long island and CT." Instead I'm looking at ALL the information we have available and making educated assessments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not hugging it, I'm treating it as an equal to the GFS, Euro, and GEM models. it's part of the model suite and should be respected. Just because its showing something different doesnt mean its *going* to be wrong. It makes no meteorological sense in its depiction none whatsoever and this has been explained by the Mets in this thread. I feel sorry for anyone who agrees with the NAM's depiction because you would be just fooling yourself into insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm not hugging it, I'm treating it as an equal to the GFS, Euro, and GEM models. it's part of the model suite and should be respected. Just because its showing something different doesnt mean its *going* to be wrong. Treating the NAM past 48 and even past 36 hours in a setup like this as an equal to the other models is not a good thing to do, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 0z rgem aint pretty. Much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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