MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z GFS has the low near our area at hour 48 while the Nam has it still down south. This run is way slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There were some definite improvements for the first 48 hours. I suspect that it will continue to trend towards the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's holding onto the northern feature too long. It's the only model doing it. All week the nam featured northern branch clippers 48 hrs out having 2 to 3 inch amounts on them. 4x in 7 days. And they all weakened 24 hrs , but one. Mayb ths time right. And all the global models and other short range models are wrong. I doubt it. It's weak recognizing ths southern branch feature. It means biz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. Time to retire the nam...horrible model. Toss it, has no support from anything else and it's the NAM -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 57 984 southeast of benchmark. Eastern Long Island getting hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. If it has this solution tomorrow morning then it's time to worry. This has been beaten to death already. Nam is worthless at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Imagine if the NAM pulls a coup somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. NAM is a horrible model and once again people are using it for the wrong thing. The NAM is NOT the model to use for synoptic evolution of a storm like phases, timing of northern stream vs. southern stream, and closing of upper-level features. The NAM is a mesoscale model meant for mesocale features such as: convection, radiational cooling, topographic enhancement of precipitation, etc. You've got to understand the weapons in your arsenal as a meteorologist. The NAM was never made for forecasting storms 3 days out that involve complicated phasing and closing off of mid-level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM is a horrible model and once again people are using it for the wrong thing. The NAM is NOT the model to use for synoptic evolution of a storm like phases, timing of northern stream vs. southern stream, and closing of upper-level features. The NAM is a mesoscale model meant for mesocale features such as: convection, radiational cooling, topographic enhancement of precipitation, etc. You've got to understand the weapons in your arsenal as a meteorologist. The NAM was never made for forecasting storms 3 days out that involve complicated phasing and closing off of mid-level lows. Nice. Definitely true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belsenj Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The videos aren't mine, but I'm happy to help share them. I experienced that storm growing up in Syosset and have a few photos on my site: http://www.northshor...om/19780207.asp Not far from me and my grandparents were in Syosset as well. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It's holding onto the northern feature too long. It's the only model doing it. All week the nam featured northern branch clippers 48 hrs out having 2 to 3 inch amounts on them. 4x in 7 days. And they all weakened 24 hrs , but one. Mayb ths time right. And all the global models and other short range models are wrong. I doubt it. It's weak recognizing ths southern branch feature. It means biz We have to see how the other models do tonight to see if they handle the vorts differently or if it's just the NAM tossing its usual nonsense. If we see more separation like the NAM shows, it could still go wrong for most of us. That said, NAM was a lot better than last run and it wouldn't take much to make it a lot better. Maybe it's finally catching onto consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. exactly - its a pretty high resolution model....the temp profiles here are scaring me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Eastern Long Island and Rhode Island, SE MA the big winners this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Imagine if the NAM pulls a coup somehow. Depends what tonight's GFS and Euro say. if they move in any way towards the NAM, gird your loins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 exactly - its a pretty high resolution model....the temp profiles here are scaring me. ace its pretty simple. No ccb development for us, game over. Temp profiles aren't going to matter when vv's are through the rough and you have a strengthening 980mb low near the bm. They will however matter with a late phase or light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 exactly - its a pretty high resolution model....the temp profiles here are scaring me. It can be pretty much tossed because it's a major outlier at this point. It's also trending towards the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At hour 57, the H5 low is closed off over NJ with a vortmax just off the coast of AC. On the 18z run at 63, the H5 low was still open and the vortmax was in Poughkeepsie, NY. Huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Eastern Long Island and Rhode Island, SE MA the big winners this run Alot of that is rain on this run though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. I really don't trust the nam, however you have a point, if the 0z gfs were to show this same scenario I wonder how long it would take for the gfs sucks, toss it, and garbage forecasting system chants to start.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Regardless of the models track record/credibility, can someone please explain why they believe the NAM is so much slower with the evolution of this storm vs. the GFS? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It can be pretty much tossed because it's a major outlier at this point. It's also trending towards the other guidance. Its not that far off the Euro or GFS at all, its basically now a 50-75 mile miss for the 5 boroughs, the slightest shift west of that exact track and we're slammed. This is not a bad run at all, we could have seen much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Even the nam is excellent here in eastern ffld county hour upon hour of snow. Excellent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol 00z 4km is a good deal east of the 18z run so far. So help me god if this is the trend tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 We have to see how the other models do tonight to see if they handle the vorts differently or if it's just the NAM tossing its usual nonsense. If we see more separation like the NAM shows, it could still go wrong for most of us. That said, NAM was a lot better than last run and it wouldn't take much to make it a lot better. Maybe it's finally catching onto consensus. The 5 consecutive euro operational runs and it's ensembles hasn't convinced you yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At this point, I'm expecting it. This seems like what WOULD happen in a situation like this. The mets and everyone else say to not even look at it post 24 hrs maybe 12 hrs...but people still get worked up over the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Regardless of the models track record/credibility, can someone please explain why they believe the NAM is so much slower with the evolution of this storm vs. the GFS? Thanks. The NAM is ALWAYS slow on everything, even in the short range its too slow moving storm systems, this is my theory as to why its such a poor model overall beyond 36-48 hours, its problems with speed ultimately really catch up with it, the reason the NAM may be semi screwing us is its too slow advancing the primary S and E across the ERN OH VALLEY and or too slow pushing the southern system up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please people, stop acting like this when the models don't agree with your snow hopes. There's still a chance the NAM is onto something the global models arent. Snow hopes? The model is wrong 90% of the time. The changes it made were drastically better and moved closer to the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Its not that far off the Euro or GFS at all, its basically now a 50-75 mile miss for the 5 boroughs, the slightest shift west of that exact track and we're slammed. This is not a bad run at all, we could have seen much worse. Agreed. I was quite encouraged by this run. It looks exponentially better at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 the issue I've been noticing which goes along with what many of you are saying, is the slowness of the NAM. What I'm noticing is that with it being so slow, the northern stream races out not only torching the bl, but as it clears the mid levels dry out and at least for our area the precip shield on the west side, for a strengthening storm is kinda whack. I presume if the evolution was faster that precip shield would be much more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Alignment of precip seems to be on target with the rest of the guidance. Just looks alot drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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