wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs are probably 12-16" for NYC with blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs are loaded with QPF and colder than 15z...here's the surface low track Important to note in the frames before that is that transfer occurs further south, off of the Delmarva. The transfer has been trending further and further south each run, and makes this run almost entirely frozen for us. Definitely some light rain/drizzle to start. All the pieces are really doing their parts. Stronger southern energy, weaker northern energy, stronger high pressure...all are resulting in a steeper trough axis and a further south development of the big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 SREFs are probably 12-16" for NYC with blizzard conditions. If the transfer and phase take place that far south, the sky's pretty much the limit in terms of how much snow we could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If that is in any way true...we'd basically be in the 12-24" range.....likely ? Nope...but the fact that it actually is trending further SOUTH with the development means we're soon going to be locked in for 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wow on the SREFs. Getting in that range too... Game on. Love the colder solution too for my friends S and E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Loving the current trends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Srefs a good way to start the night. .30 frozen for Philly even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is certainly a trend in almost ALL of the latest data. This is becoming more of a Miller A than a true A/B hybrid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 There is certainly a trend in almost ALL of the latest data. This is becoming more of a Miller A than a true A/B hybrid. Is that because of the weakening of the primary earlier ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Loving the current trends! There has literally not been a bad trend with this all along. The 12z Euro today was the biggest setback, and that still has 8"+ for NYC and the Euro Ens were still an epic blizzard. The whole week, the other models have been playing catch up to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is that because of the weakening of the primary earlier ? I think it's more a reflection of the craziness going on in the south man. Look at that energy in SACRUS's post above! It's game-changing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 What it comes down to is when and where the mid level centers offshore, initially related to the southern stream vort, can become dominant. That process is owing to the exact interactions during the phase...so we might see fluctuations right up until game time in this type of situation. Every single model shows the CCB rapidly developing once the 850 hPa and 700 hPa lows off the coast become dominant as the phase occurs and the inland one, in relation to the northern stream vort, dissipates. How the phase goes down will determine when and where this happens..and when and where the CCB goes bonkers and the thermal profile responds both to that and the dynamic cooling as a result of the heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What it comes down to is when and where the mid level centers offshore, initially related to the southern stream vort, can become dominant. That process is owing to the exact interactions during the phase...so we might see fluctuations right up until game time in this type of situation. Every single model shows the CCB rapidly developing once the 850 hPa and 700 hPa lows off the coast become dominant as the phase occurs and the inland one, in relation to the northern stream vort, dissipates. How the phase goes down will determine when and where this happens..and when and where the CCB goes bonkers and the thermal profile responds both to that and the dynamic cooling as a result of the heavy precipitation. I don't need to flatter you or kiss up, but seriously, you are one heck of a mod/met/teacher. Thanks for all your work and patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Public announcement The New York City office of the National Weather Service is urging people in and around the Big Apple to prepare for a major winter storm for Friday. The advice they share should be used there and throughout New England:Before the storm strikes, be prepared. At home or work, the following items should be available: -flashlights and extra batteries -canned food and a manual opener -bottled water -essential medications -first aid kit -sufficient heating fuel -a working fire extinguisher and smoke alarm -salt and sand -a battery powered radio Make sure your pets have plenty of food, water, and shelter. Make sure your vehicle is fully checked and winterized. Carry a winter storm survival kit including blankets, cell phone, a flashlight with extra batteries, a shovel, and map. If you become stranded in your vehicle, make sure the tail pipe is clear then stay inside, run the engine 10 minutes each hour for heat, keep your window open to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning, and from time to time exercise body parts to keep blood circulating and to keep warm. Tie a colored cloth to your vehicle. If you are caught outside, try to stay dry and cover exposed body parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Every county in NY state is under a WSW...how often do you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I am curious to see the NAM s Initialization w the southern sw. It will b evident right off the bat. If it keeps a strong northern vort strong. This vortex in the south is a bomb w a fuse. Dont see a set up ths often. The euro saw it early. Hope it can see whats already evident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belsenj Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NorthShoreWx, I really appreciate those video's. I grew up in Oyster Bay and remember that storm. Great stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM looks a little better oriented for the phase through 18 hours...can't really see any other major changes other than that so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Although the southern stream vort is still virtually non-existent (which for many reasons I have said is BS), there is still a lot more convective precip this run than there was on the 18z run. Perhaps that might help to salvage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm happy as a pig in **** beggars can't be choosy and a hell of a way for a new trend in our weather on the coast whens the next one LOL see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can anyone please tell me what the RPM model comprises of? What exactly is it? Earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The nam is trying to get it done this run...going to look a lot diff then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Although the southern stream vort is still virtually non-existent (which for many reasons I have said is BS), there is still a lot more convective precip this run than there was on the 18z run. Perhaps that might help to salvage something. All week the nam has loved the north stream and loses it 24 hrs out. Im drivin do i cant see the models only what im reading. If the southern vort is weak. I suspect it will trend better Will let it run out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Although there is still essentially no vorticity, there are actually subtle hints of a shortwave in the south this run, as opposed to no sign of that on the 18z run. So definitely an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Can anyone please tell me what the RPM model comprises of? What exactly is it? Earthlight? Peyote and poorly written code? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One things for sure, the temp NCEP site is much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Now we have a sign of vorticity returning on this run at 36 hours and more noticeable height rises. Convection ftw. This is definitely a better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Hr 36 light snow showers in area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One things for sure, the temp NCEP sight is much faster. I agree. If it were up to me, the site that's up would replace the one that's currently down. Perhaps because it's streamlined, it runs much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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