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February 8th Potential Bomb Part II

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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96blizz

96blizz

Posted
Posted

I heard that **** hit the fan at a certain station when the RPM output was broadcasted. BTW, despite bringing in an expert, TWC (and said expert) are still waaaay behind. At 7PM, they were still talking about the 12z GFS vs Euro.

I remember it's only been recently that all these stations seem to post 'model output' to the public.  The models mean something to us, but the viewing public doesn't understand the difference between a model (no matter how good) and what the 'consensus' is.  ALL OVER Facebook are people posting, "3" or 30" in NYC". 

 

I feel for you guys.  I do this for fun, as a hobby and to learn --- and am the 'go to guy' is me for my friends --- but you guys are my 'go to guys'!

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

18z GFS at KHPN :weenie:

 

130208/0600Z  36  10008KT  29.2F  SNOW    5:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/0900Z  39  08011KT  30.5F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03   70|  2| 28
130208/1200Z  42  07011KT  29.9F  ZRSN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10   73|  2| 25
130208/1500Z  45  06013KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.171    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27    2|  0| 98
130208/1800Z  48  06013KT  35.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/2100Z  51  04017KT  33.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.372    5:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80   48|  0| 52
130209/0000Z  54  02020KT  29.9F  SNOW   14:1|12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.876   14:1| 12.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  57  01023KT  24.9F  SNOW   15:1|10.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.696   15:1| 23.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.37  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  60  01021KT  20.2F  SNOW   23:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.223   16:1| 28.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.59  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0900Z  63  34019KT  21.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   15:1| 29.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.72  100|  0|  0
130209/1200Z  66  34017KT  23.6F  SNOW    4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035   15:1| 29.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.76  100|  0|  0
130209/1500Z  69  33017KT  23.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   15:1| 29.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.76  100|  0|  0
130209/1800Z  72  34016KT  25.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   15:1| 29.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.76    0|  0|  0
 

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

I remember it's only been recently that all these stations seem to post 'model output' to the public.  The models mean something to us, but the viewing public doesn't understand the difference between a model (no matter how good) and what the 'consensus' is.  ALL OVER Facebook are people posting, "3" or 30" in NYC". 

 

I feel for you guys.  I do this for fun, as a hobby and to learn --- and am the 'go to guy' is me for my friends --- but you guys are my 'go to guys'!

Yeah it just confuses the public and makes it seem like the forecasters don't know what they're talking about. In reality most of the forecasts are fairly close to each other. Nobody's going with anything over 10" for NYC at this time. It's very risky to put a graphic like that up when the chances of it happening are .0001% and no other model shows it.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

The fact that I have 15.1" on the season, and just in this storm alone that I can come close to it is remarkable.

 

Wow, you actually didn't overmeasure this year. I have 19"...Just kidding you, I was always on your case a couple years ago for being too high.

 

The models that show 30" snowfall are probably overdone, but it's not out of the question. HPC has 3" QPF over Long Island; imagine if that's all snow? In the Boxing Day Blizzard, places like Scotch Plains, Newark and Elizabeth had 24-30"...and I had 26" here in Westchester in the 2/26/2010 Snowicane storm. As mentioned, much of Orange County got 30" in that storm. 1888 had 48" in New Haven and close to 3' in parts of Brooklyn. Getting a storm that large is rare, but not unprecedented. 

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Yeah it just confuses the public and makes it seem like the forecasters don't know what they're talking about. In reality most of the forecasts are fairly close to each other. Nobody's going with anything over 10" for NYC at this time. It's very risky to put a graphic like that up when the chances of it happening are .0001% and no other model shows it.

 

What makes you think that? I can see NYC getting more.

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mikemurph44

mikemurph44

Posted
Posted

Wow, you actually didn't overmeasure this year. I have 19"...Just kidding you, I was always on your case a couple years ago for being too high.

The models that show 30" snowfall are probably overdone, but it's not out of the question. HPC has 3" QPF over Long Island; imagine if that's all snow? In the Boxing Day Blizzard, places like Scotch Plains, Newark and Elizabeth had 24-30"...and I had 26" here in Westchester in the 2/26/2010 Snowicane storm. As mentioned, much of Orange County got 30" in that storm. 1888 had 48" in New Haven and close to 3' in parts of Brooklyn. Getting a storm that large is rare, but not unprecedented.

NBC showed 40 inches on the rpm model output in nyc and the suburbs. It's not happening and totally irresponsible and stupid to post. Nothing even close to 40 inches is going to verify, no reason to even entertain such a ludicrous scenario.
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Snowlover11

Snowlover11

Posted
Posted

Wow, you actually didn't overmeasure this year. I have 19"...Just kidding you, I was always on your case a couple years ago for being too high.

 

The models that show 30" snowfall are probably overdone, but it's not out of the question. HPC has 3" QPF over Long Island; imagine if that's all snow? In the Boxing Day Blizzard, places like Scotch Plains, Newark and Elizabeth had 24-30"...and I had 26" here in Westchester in the 2/26/2010 Snowicane storm. As mentioned, much of Orange County got 30" in that storm. 1888 had 48" in New Haven and close to 3' in parts of Brooklyn. Getting a storm that large is rare, but not unprecedented. 

:lmao: dude I wasnt home for one time we got a 1-3" type deal... so maybe im low by 2" but anywho I have a good feeling for us.  but of course your on mt. zucker.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

you're missing the point.  No MET is going with "more than 10" because of the uncertaintly.  Any trained MET looking at the models and dynamics knows what is truly possible... 

 

I know there's a lot of uncertainty. I certainly agree. We may only end up with around 5 or 6" of slop. HPC has around 1.5" for KNYC, assume 1/3 of that is rain and you still get 10".

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

Imagine the snow drifts with that. With that your talking 6-8' snow drifts. I'll be snowed in, Won't be able to even leave the house for days. Good thing that isn't the likely scenario.

 

Sounds like the granddaddy of them all 35 years ago:

 

 

 

The blizzard of Feb 78 footage starts around 4:00 in this one.  Before that is the January storms:

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

NBC showed 40 inches on the rpm model output in nyc and the suburbs. It's not happening and totally irresponsible and stupid to post. Nothing even close to 40 inches is going to verify, no reason to even entertain such a ludicrous scenario.

I still can't believe they posted that on the air, and actual meteorologists too who should know better than to freak out the public. When you see 30" of snow forecasted by a model for NYC, most people don't grasp the difference of one model vs. another. I can see how most of us get a healthy snow event, but the hype is getting ridiculous by some.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

I know there's a lot of uncertainty. I certainly agree. We may only end up with around 5 or 6" of slop. HPC has around 1.5" for KNYC, assume 1/3 of that is rain and you still get 10".

 

This is a VERY difficult forecast. You have two problems:

1) How soon do the mid-levels (700mb) and upper levels (500mb) close off? The storm develops later than Boxing Day, and some of the models like the ECM have NYC only seeing about 1.25" QPF with some of that wasted. You need a quick capture in order to deepen this storm in time for the heaviest amounts to be in the NYC metro.

 

2) How quickly do temperatures cool off with the high pressure to the north and dynamics? This is a very mild system compared to Jan 2005, PDII, Jan 1996. It looks a bit more like Feb 10, 2010 or Feb 26, 2010 in terms of temperatures, maybe slightly warmer than the first storm but colder than the second, with a more north-south temperature gradient. Again, NYC, especially southern sections, could end up with hours of slop that cut totals. Or they could crank under a CCB for hours.

 

Here would be my predictions:

JFK: 6-10" 

NYC/EWR/LGA: 8-12"

HPN/BDR: 12-16"

HVN/OKX/GON: 16-20"

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CIK62

CIK62

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Posted

I still can't believe they posted that on the air, and actual meteorologists too who should know better than to freak out the public. When you see 30" of snow forecasted by a model for NYC, most people don't grasp the difference of one model vs. another. I can see how most of us get a healthy snow event, but the hype is getting ridiculous by some.

Remember early March, 2001?    30" was promoted for days by Accuweather here in NYC.   Coverage was live prior to a snowflake falling---from the street, supermarkets, hardware stores and the airport.   5.5" fell and the airports were opened for the fleeing Accuweather personnel---fleeing from the public's wrath, that is.

Seriously if we have 30" this will be the 10th. '30years or greater storm' in just 7 years(hurricanes,blizzards etc.)according to a post I saw here last year.   Confirm anyone?

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96blizz

96blizz

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Posted

Remember early March, 2001?    30" was promoted for days by Accuweather here in NYC.   Coverage was live prior to a snowflake falling---from the street, supermarkets, hardware stores and the airport.   5.5" fell and the airports were opened for the fleeing Accuweather personnel---fleeing from the public's wrath, that is.

Seriously if we have 30" this will be the 10th. '30years or greater storm' in just 7 years(hurricanes,blizzards etc.)according to a post I saw here last year.   Confirm anyone?

Remember this vividly.  I was on Spring Break in college in West Palm Beach and was ticked I was missing it only to be relieved to find out that golf in West Palm Beach FL was better than one of the biggest 'whiffs' of all time...

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Remember early March, 2001?    30" was promoted for days by Accuweather here in NYC.   Coverage was live prior to a snowflake falling---from the street, supermarkets, hardware stores and the airport.   5.5" fell and the airports were opened for the fleeing Accuweather personnel---fleeing from the public's wrath, that is.

Seriously if we have 30" this will be the 10th. '30years or greater storm' in just 6 years(hurricanes,blizzards etc.)according to a post I saw here last year.   Confirm anyone?

The real question to me is how much of a backlashing we get for coastal areas and how much heavy precip can make it to well inland areas (north and west folks). I think Long Island, NYC and places nearby have to deal with rain or slop for a while from the initial shot of precip. Then the all important question becomes where and how strong of a phase we get, which determines where the CCB forms. If it forms south of us over NJ or off NJ, we're in great shape given the very healthy dynamics and everyone can rack up heavy accums in a short time. On 2/25/10, I had over 10" of snow in 4-5 hours after tons of rain, 1/27/11 about a foot in 4 hours, and so on-so racking up big totals isn't a huge concern if we can just get the main banding to form overhead. But the later phase and further offshore track is still on the table, in which case most of us would be dryslotted and just get snow showers pretty much, or a very quick shot of heavier snow. So it's still hard to give a number out. In a few hours hopefully we know a lot more. The southern disturbance looks quite healthy so far on radar/WV, so that's an encouraging sign.

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

I'm trying to not get my hopes up, but I don't think we see very much rain when all is said and done.That is of course, as long as it ends up being a bomb to the benchmark with cold HP to the north. 00Z tonight will be very interesting to say the least, but I'm really liking where we're sitting (at least right now).

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted

I'm trying to not get my hopes up, but I don't think we see very much rain when all is said and done.That is of course, as long as it ends up being a bomb to the benchmark with cold HP to the north. 00Z tonight will be very interesting to say the least, but I'm really liking where we're sitting (at least right now).

 

You are probably looking at a wild ride in your backyard. 1-2" of rain followed by 1-2ft of snow.. smh One for the record books if it happens.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

21z SREF

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=mslp&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_057_mslp.gif

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=mslp&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_060_mslp.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer&param=precip_p24&cycle=21ℑ=sref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif

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