JSantanaNYC Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If we get 12to 24 inch. Bring spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nick Gregory had 7-12 for the city and 12-16 N/NW/NE of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like the major NYC weather teams aren't buying the gfs, the vast majority of calls right now are for 3-6, or 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nick Gregory had 7-12 for the city and 12-16 N/NW/NE of the city. Nick is one of the few that high right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know this isn't our area, but heres the meteogram for korh. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=korh&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like the major NYC weather teams aren't buying the gfs, the vast majority of calls right now are for 3-6, or 4-8 I dont think its a matter of buying the GFS moreso than the fact that there is still some model madness. Thats ok for now based on what we have at hand. If trends continue to go in our favor there is no doubt in my mind 11pm and tomorrow am forecasts could change drastically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 considering im 6miles south of HPN Westchester is in PERFECT position to get crushed. I am so excited right now, as we should see considerably less mixing than the City and much better banding than places to the southwest like EWR/MMU/TEB. We might get slightly less than the CT coast but confidence is growing for a major, and potentially historic, snowfall in the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Guys, whats the current logic based, not weenie dream, forecast for Brooklyn on Friday from early morning to around three PM? It's an important decision for me, as I used to post here ( lived on the UES ) for years, before moving back to Philly. By the way, under the predecessor website name, someone here still owes me a steak dinner at Peter Luger's for my forecast on the "snowicane". Three days out I called 18+ inches measured in the Park, and he made the bet against me. I never collected. Anyway, I'm supposed to get my shoulder scoped and somehow the idea of coming out of anesthesia, with a wife who won't drive in the snow, in the middle of a MECS over the BM, doesn't sound like sound reasoning. I'd rather wait a week, then take ridiculous chances of being stranded in a hospital. Thanks for any useful info..... and if my Peter Luger friend is here, he would remember the "Philly Guy" who lived on the UES who also came up with the term, "snowicane". I believe I posted under USALEGAL or USJUSTICE or PHILLYBOYINNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT has 8-15 inches for NYC with more in eastern LI.http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If we get 12to 24 inch. Bring spring Actually we may be entering into the most favorable setups we have had all winter for snow storms if the medium-long range on several models is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It is pretty remarkable to see the 12km and 4km NAM look so drastically different. I can't remember a time when there has been such a discrepancy. I noticed the same thing also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Actually we may be entering into the most favorable setups we have had all winter for snow storms if the medium-long range on several models is correct. dbc, RGEM and other short range models are very impressive.... RGEM would be the topper, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18Z gfs ensemble mean hr 48 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12048.gif hr 60 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT has 8-15 inches for NYC with more in eastern LI. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg I just died laughing at his FB post regarding the 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Westchester is in PERFECT position to get crushed. I am so excited right now, as we should see considerably less mixing than the City and much better banding than places to the southwest like EWR/MMU/TEB. We might get slightly less than the CT coast but confidence is growing for a major, and potentially historic, snowfall in the suburbs. Yeah I like where we are sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 back bent warm front at 700 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 dbc, RGEM and other short range models are very impressive.... RGEM would be the topper, though. Yes indeed. RGEM would be epic. Some of the SREF members were absolutely mind-blowing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT has 8-15 inches for NYC with more in eastern LI. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg I think he's a little bit too far SE with the low. Also, I don't see areas that are going to mix a lot in eastern LI getting 24" while north of the city with limited mixing only gets 8-15" (although he probably figures the higher range up here). Overall, I think the jackpot areas will be central CT coastline from around HVN back towards OKX on Long Island, with 2' possible. I'd forecast 6-10" for NYC and 10-16" for the suburbs, especially northeast suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 TWC: 1-3" CBS2: 4-8" CBS Evening News: 12-24" NBC4: 6-9" Seriously TWC? They are starting to get real crappy with their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT has 8-15 inches for NYC with more in eastern LI. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg So he says we get 8-15" in 3 hours eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How did the gfs ensembles compare to its previous run, they look ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ya twc is weird sometimes with this stuff. Cantore questioned Greg postel and made him sound kinda stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT has 8-15 inches for NYC with more in eastern LI. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stG.jpg . I suggest everyone reads DT's entire discussion and not just his forecast map. He explains what can go wrong and why there are major problems with the rpm model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How did the gfs ensembles compare to its previous run, they look ok Decent, but not as robust as the Op. Maybe .75 of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 back bent warm front at 700 mb Which probably explains the CCB sitting over SW CT to LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 . I suggest everyone reads DT's entire discussion and not just his forecast map. He explains what can go wrong and why there are major problems with the rpm model The RPM model is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Decent, but not as robust as the Op. Maybe .75 of frozen. Actually, it's definitely colder than the OP and slightly drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Central LI thoughts? I can't get the maps to work on the iPhone. Can someone briefly summarize what the models depict for the NY Metro? Euro NAM GFS GGEM SREF NOGAPS JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think he's a little bit too far SE with the low. Also, I don't see areas that are going to mix a lot in eastern LI getting 24" while north of the city with limited mixing only gets 8-15" (although he probably figures the higher range up here). Overall, I think the jackpot areas will be central CT coastline from around HVN back towards OKX on Long Island, with 2' possible. I'd forecast 6-10" for NYC and 10-16" for the suburbs, especially northeast suburbs.. DT thinks there is going to be a sharp cutoff northwest of this storm, typical for most miller b's. that is why he isn't going crazy with heavy amounts in the northwest nyc suburbs, he even mentions suffern, ny which is nw of the city in rockland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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