Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But once the low strengthens, the ageostrophic flow takes over, and your winds shift to NE and N. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 just an fyi I havent seen lee's forecast since 430 but he was using the 12z gfs so it may not have updated if hes using the same map, I believe it had 4.7 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg showing some snow amounts from the euro and the GFS, neither shows a foot or more for LI.. I saw the graphic from Lee and it showed 3-6 throughout NYC.. He also mentioned how unreliable the GFS is as well as how close NYC is to the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 just an fyi I havent seen lee's forecast since 430 but he was using the 12z gfs so it may not have updated if hes using the same map, I believe it had 4.7 for NYC No he mentioned the 18z GFS in his forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 True. I do agree though that LI is rain through 48 hours, and maybe even through 51 as well. But I think after that, we just get a heavy wet snow bomb. There is still a substantial amount of precipitation that falls after 51 hours which would support amounts of well over a foot in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I saw the graphic from Lee and it showed 3-6 throughout NYC.. He also mentioned how unreliable the GFS is as well as how close NYC is to the mix line. I like being in Westchester for this one with the potential to stay all snow, but further northeast might do a bit better. The CT coastline looks like ground zero, for example, with this track and temperature profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg showing some snow amounts from the euro and the GFS, neither shows a foot or more for LI.. Most TV mets are calling 4-8". Don't think they have see then latest models. I certainly think we'll do better than that, especially here and in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z 500 mb and surface low placement looks identical to the 12z on the GFS so I am not sure why the shift west with more precip. It appears the mid level centers are slightly more robust, and the southern stream energy is more consolidated and the phase a little cleaner. Both of those help to develop the cold conveyor belt rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The oceans aren't even that warm any more the buoy of islp had water of almost 50 degrees in mid January, its now down to 42-43 That is true, but an extended period out of the east would allow bl temps to warm. It depends on how fast the low strengthens so the winds could shift more northly as Dsnowx pointed out with the ageo flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I like being in Westchester for this one with the potential to stay all snow, but further northeast might do a bit better. The CT coastline looks like ground zero, for example, with this track and temperature profile. yeah CT and points NE will do the best from this unless something drastic happens. I wouldn't rule out a secondary max somewhere in our region but the place to be is NE CT/N RI/E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Right, and this also helps. Climatology is on our side. Exactly, thats why I have been very bullish for snow and we have a strong high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Most TV mets are calling 4-8". Don't think they have see then latest models. I certainly think we'll do better than that, especially here and in CT. This early in the game that's a good forecast. Lets people now we're getting a good snowstorm without predicting ridiculous amounts. We're still basically 48 hours out and alot can and will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Quick question. What does CCB stand for? My wife got me the original, when it was just one volume with a pic of the Blizzard of '78 from Route 128 near Milton. It has an excellent primer, with illustrations, that any reasonably bright person can read. Must reading for any Winter Storm fan. May have to mention to my wife there is a second addition now. Order the Kocin-Ucellini book... http://www.amazon.com/Northeast-Snowstorms-1-2-Set/dp/1878220640 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM has often been wrong within 6-12 hrs with details so I am not sure why people are sweating a long range run for that model. Inside of 24 hours the NAM is still my go-to model. 48 and beyond, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There will be a sick deform band set up, could play a major role in totals further west than what is being modeled........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It appears the mid level centers are slightly more robust, and the southern stream energy is more consolidated and the phase a little cleaner. Both of those help to develop the cold conveyor belt rapidly. We'll probably need to see 0z to know if was a blip or legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Most TV mets are calling 4-8". Don't think they have see then latest models. I certainly think we'll do better than that, especially here and in CT. Except NBC is still playing the hype game by quoting Euro at 6 in and GFS at 1ft and RPM ( YES!) at 24.8 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It appears the mid level centers are slightly more robust, and the southern stream energy is more consolidated and the phase a little cleaner. Both of those help to develop the cold conveyor belt rapidly. Know you from Eastern Weather days so much respect to you & thats why I ask this: can we and do we really ever trust the 18z suite to add anything to the analytical equation with an oncoming Noreaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Except NBC is still playing the hype game by quoting Euro at 6 in and GFS at 1ft and RPM ( YES!) at 24.8 inches! I was just watching them, they did show the Euro and GFS maps, but their real forecast map only calls for 6-9" for NYC. Hard to believe anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 JB going with 1-2 Feet from N NJ (west of 287) through much of S NE. NYC tough call (paraphrasing)...12"+ or more possible in NYC but so is a period of rain, and somewhat lower accums....hes hedging for the city itself it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There will be a sick deform band set up, could play a major role in totals further west than what is being modeled........ It was a band like that which resulted in CPK's all time blizzard from 4am to 11am we accumilated on average 18 inches in and around the 5 borroughs on that beautiful Feb Saturday night just half a dozen years ago. So deform and slow down and its heaven time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 MR G is calling for 3-6 inches of snow for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Know you from Eastern Weather days so much respect to you & thats why I ask this: can we and do we really ever trust the 18z suite to add anything to the analytical equation with an oncoming Noreaster? You will only know if the 0z guidance picks up on it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 It is pretty remarkable to see the 12km and 4km NAM look so drastically different. I can't remember a time when there has been such a discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Steve D says 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Holy crap!! (Easily a triple-bunner) 18z GFS White Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 4x in the last 7 days the northern branch feature died 24 hrs in. Think back to just ths week. Which model consistently under played the northern sw and was right. While the American model took until 24 hrs out to see they were garbage. The euro knows the southern branch is the king here. The GFS and nam are just playing catch up. Out of the 4 northern features last week only 1 held So let's see if the euro is right again. I think it is And for the record the nam was the guiltiest party Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Holy crap!! (Easily a triple-bunner) 18z GFS White Plains prec.png omeg.png considering im 6miles south of HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 considering im 6miles south of HPN Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The RGEM must be at least 2'+ for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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