TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hi-Res 18z NAM and 18z GFS good agreement on snowfall totals. Both look to have me 18"+. Wouldn't lock it in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Long Island still looks like it will still change over to rain during the mid morning period Friday and last thru the mid aft period Friday before changing back over to snow after hr 48. This will hold down accumulation for the Island. Hr 42 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h42&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Hr 48 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h48&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 I wonder how much accums would be held down by that period of mixing/rain. On 1/27/11 some of the heaviest totals were in areas that had sleet/mix. I personally had thunder sleet before a ridiculous change to snow that dumped 3-4" per hour that night. But before that we all had 3-4" of initial snow-hopefully the initial cold can be more stubborn due to the CAD and that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Like I said IF 0z has this, we might need to hope on the snow train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'll just wait until tonight before jumping for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hi-Res 18z NAM and 18z GFS good agreement on snowfall totals. Both look to have me 18"+. Wouldn't lock it in just yet. Almost looks 1/22/05-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lets look at the 500mb setup here. We have a roll over ridge in the plains, two vigorous shortwaves in the northern and southern streams, and a large high to our north. What is the main feature here that is going go allow the flow to slow down just enough and phase? Could we say the confluence to our north is acting like a block ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lets look at the 500mb setup here. We have a roll over ridge in the plains, two vigorous shortwaves in the northern and southern streams, and a large high to our north. What is the main feature here that is going go allow the flow to slow down just enough and phase? Could we say the confluence to our north is acting like a block ? It's that and the potential energy from the Southern S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lets look at the 500mb setup here. We have a roll over ridge in the plains, two vigorous shortwaves in the northern and southern streams, and a large high to our north. What is the main feature here that is going go allow the flow to slow down just enough and phase? Could we say the confluence to our north is acting like a block ? in a way i guess. I mean if the confluence was absent that northern stream s/w would for sure amplify and head way north of the area, not even allowing the thought of a phase with a southern stream s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think th e18z gfs is about as close to a best case scenario for most of the area,in response to the person who mention that the storm may not be done trending. we still have a rain issue, and a mediocre pattern, without great blocking, it cant get any better than this, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z 500 mb and surface low placement looks identical to the 12z on the GFS so I am not sure why the shift west with more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z GFS is usually a bad run but its interesting, It usually puts a big storm in the right place first out of all the runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wonder how much accums would be held down by that period of mixing/rain. On 1/27/11 some of the heaviest totals were in areas that had sleet/mix. I personally had thunder sleet before a ridiculous change to snow that dumped 3-4" per hour that night. But before that we all had 3-4" of initial snow-hopefully the initial cold can be more stubborn due to the CAD and that works out. I am not sold on the CAD. Text output puts LI with an east wind from 0Z Fri to 18Z Fri. The warmer ocean waters can erode that llv cold air away quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If the 18z gfs is correct, than I guarantee it will trend colder. I think tonight's run's will really lock this thing in as we're under 2 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 0z will make or break us, from the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z 500 mb and surface low placement looks identical to the 12z on the GFS so I am not sure why the shift west with more precip. H5 closes off further south. You gotta look closer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z 500 mb and surface low placement looks identical to the 12z on the GFS so I am not sure why the shift west with more precip. Vigorous Southern S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 H5 closes off further south. You gotta look closer than that. No it doesn't. 18 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Vigorous Southern S/W. Yeah. And the southern stream was much stronger this run. Great trends. The GFS didn't just do this for no reason lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No it doesn't. Compare hrs 60 and and 66. Look at the 500mb low. Trust me its further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z 500 mb and surface low placement looks identical to the 12z on the GFS so I am not sure why the shift west with more precip. Because the southern stream was stronger and slower, allowing for more moisture, and a cleaner phase further south. The cleaner phase helped to expand the precip further west. Plus, the huge change is that since the phase occurred earlier, the storm occludes earlier. Because of this, the closed 500mb low actually stalls and drifts east from hours 60 to 63 on this run as opposed to going northeast from hours 66 to 69 on the 12z GFS. Thus, at 63 hours on the 18z, the 500mb low is further south than it was at 69 hours on the 12z. This shifts the heaviest QPF to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No it doesn't. 18 f48.gif 12 f54.gif Also, the Northern S/W is slightly sharper and it digs a tad bit more as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The strongest PVA is also further southwest on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am not sold on the CAD. Text output puts LI with an east wind from 0Z Fri to 18Z Fri. The warmer ocean waters can erode that llv cold air away quickly. But once the low strengthens, the ageostrophic flow takes over, and your winds shift to NE and N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No one has mentioned the wind potential on the 18z gfs... I assume there'd be some pretty strong sustained winds/wind gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg showing some snow amounts from the euro and the GFS, neither shows a foot or more for LI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the southern system is stronger in the low and mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 But once the low strengthens, the ageostrophic flow takes over, and your winds shift to NE and N. The oceans aren't even that warm any more the buoy of islp had water of almost 50 degrees in mid January, its now down to 42-43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lee Goldberg showing some snow amounts from the euro and the GFS, neither shows a foot or more for LI.. That's because LI is supposed to change to rain for a extended period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The oceans aren't even that warm any more the buoy of islp had water of almost 50 degrees in mid January, its now down to 42-43 Right, and this also helps. Climatology is on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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