mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This could go bad for Boston in multiple ways. She could come inland and put Boston in the dry slot or on the east side, or she could stall out south of Long Island and become vertically stacked before the really strong CCB arrives up that way. Or this can go really bad for us at 0z. I have seen events like this turn sour in a heartbeat. This is a real complicated storm and alot can go bad when the new data comes in tonight, not saying don't be excited, but this isn't a lock for very heavy snowfall yet, we are talking about the 18z gfs here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the good news is that the window for a much further east path would appear to be closing fast....had GFS gone even a little east I would have been concerned. Both models could go east or west, but I think the window east also is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the good news is that the window for a much further east path would appear to be closing fast....had GFS gone even a little east I would have been concerned. On the other hand, it may be colder going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 93 storm had a sustained sleet period about midway through if I remember correctly.. in Bloomfield, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's definitely a little warm near NJ and NYC, but it flips to a bomb. Western CT would win here, but remember the little nuances with these systems over 48hrs out. At least over the last few years, I've noticed the GFS tends to be a degree or sometimes even two degrees too warm in these dynamic cooling bomb situations...and usually the western/northwestern 1/3 of the QPF bomb end up with a paste snow bomb. We'll see...this was a big trend towards the CCB really going off on top of our area and extending up to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This could go bad for Boston in multiple ways. She could come inland and put Boston in the dry slot or on the east side, or she could stall out south of Long Island and become vertically stacked before the really strong CCB arrives up that way. The only thing that could really go wrong for them is the coastal front that loves forming there does so and sneaks 2-3 miles inland for a period, thats always a concern at BOS in a dynamic system but anyone back near the "beltway" there its gonna take a catastrophe at this point for this storm to really bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 OH MY GOD... 2ft+ for me on the GFS... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wouldn't surprise me to see Upton issue Blizzard Watches for LI tonight or tomorrow 4km NAM also has a BOMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At least over the last few years, I've noticed the GFS tends to be a degree or sometimes even two degrees too warm in these dynamic cooling bomb situations...and usually the western/northwestern 1/3 of the QPF bomb end up with a paste snow bomb. We'll see...this was a big trend towards the CCB really going off on top of our area and extending up to SNE. Yeah it flips you over big time and agree with the dynamics. Either way enjoy! It wouldn't shock me for you guys to get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I feel like a kid again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think this is really all we can ask for at this point. We've been talking about the trends, and what we need to get this to be a biggie for the area. The 18z gfs shows the result, albeit the mesoscale dynamics while incredibly large, are somewhat underplayed because of its lower resolutiion allowing temps to appear warmer than what might truly occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah it flips you over big time and agree with the dynamics. Either way enjoy! It wouldn't shock me for you guys to get hit hard. I approve this statement...thanks coastalwx you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Just going on a feeling but i think the trend is not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Quick question. What does CCB stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 H5 has closed further south on the GFS for 4 straight runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Long Island still looks like it will still change over to rain during the mid morning period Friday and last thru the mid aft period Friday before changing back over to snow after hr 48. This will hold down accumulation for the Island. Hr 42 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h42&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Hr 48 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h48&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 At least over the last few years, I've noticed the GFS tends to be a degree or sometimes even two degrees too warm in these dynamic cooling bomb situations...and usually the western/northwestern 1/3 of the QPF bomb end up with a paste snow bomb. We'll see...this was a big trend towards the CCB really going off on top of our area and extending up to SNE. Thats more or less what busted the 12/25/02 system, ETA wanted no part of the CCB and the AVN/GFS had it but appeared too warm and everyone bit on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Cold Conveyor Belt=CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Quick question. What does CCB stand for? Cold Conveyor Belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Someone pinch me! I'll wait till 0z but wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah it flips you over big time and agree with the dynamics. Either way enjoy! It wouldn't shock me for you guys to get hit hard. You do the same man, hope you guys get absolutely buried. It's been a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting that some guidance gives C/E LI the most snow...while the GFS has 0 for the eastern half of the island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z GFS smh.. Guess the clown map doesn't include Long Island lol..I get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was just going to say that too the18z gfs verifies as well as any of the other runs, this is a common board myth.that th 18z is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Long Island still looks like it will still change over to rain during the mid morning period Friday and last thru the mid aft period Friday before changing back over to snow after hr 48. This will hold down accumulation for the Island. Hr 42 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h42&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Hr 48 http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kfrg&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h48&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Yeah alot of that will depend on what sort of snow rates/accumulation can drop early, if you can get a good few inches down quick like 12/5/03 and have heavy precip rates it can make it very tough, especially if winds are starting to come around more NE to get that warm layer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was just going to say that too the18z gfs verifies as well as any of the other runs, this is a common board myth.that th 18z is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 was just going to say that too the18z gfs verifies as well as any of the other runs, this is a common board myth.that th 18z is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z 4km NAM Storm wasn't even over. (Obviously use with caution) http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Love to see NYC's all time snow record from a couple years back (the one that replaced 1947's) broken then I'll swear off snow for a year. Do any models even hint at a Biblical snowstorm for NYC/LI? Apparently the RPM is your friend there. And maybe the RGEM. And the NAM Hi Res. A pretty motley crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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