February 8th Potential Bomb Part II

[Kaner587]

i draw the R/S transition line exactly at hour 54. Everything after that is snow. I wanna see the 24 hour precip map from h54-h80 before I call this a 1 foot+ event.

you dont need to simple addition would give you your answer. NYC is roughly 0.75 after 54. If you include 51 (when earthlight and dsnow believe true changeover occurs its upwards of 1.2

[Allsnow]

NE NJ/NYC from 2-3" QPF, I would estimate 70-80% as snow....Still should give 12-20" across most of the region I would think...

SV maps 8-12 central nj. 12-18 NYC. 18-24 central Long Island. Western ct 30+

[SnowGoose69]

The GFS still loves that funny little vort cutting behind the system, its had that now for about 10 runs straight, thats a bit far out and detailed but its the sort of thing that could have you going snowy a few hours longer than expected.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

thanks.... but nothing has happened yet.

 

Keep them coming!!! His profile does say hes 15 though so ill cut him some slack!

[ace0927]

GFS is a snowbomb for us

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD

[Superstorm93]

Even if .25-.5" falls as rain when you have about 2"+ of QPF 

 

[Brian5671]

Gfs SV snow maps. 12-18 for NYC. 8-12 central nj. 18-24 central Long Island. Western ct 30+

I'll stop posting for a year if that happens (The 30+)

[Allsnow]

William northshorewx and upton get close if nor more then 2 feet this run

[winterwarlock]

  I give up. You guys need to realize not all of the CCB precip will be falling as snow. It's only snow from hour 54 onwards, all precip that falls UNTIL hour 54 on the GFS is rain. 

 

 

agree...this run should give some caution, I mean people were/are still expecting a BOOM yet thats alot of rain at first, not saying we will not significant snows but it may not be the amounts some seem to think

 

Like to see further analysis of this run, talk from the mets, and tonights model runs

[IsentropicLift]

The GFS still loves that funny little vort cutting behind the system, its had that now for about 10 runs straight, thats a bit far out and detailed but its the sort of thing that could have you going snowy a few hours longer than expected.

It's been a long time since we've had a really long duration event.

[sferic]

So I guess 6 inches for NYC/ Western LI  is a lock and the maximum potential if there is less mixing or rain is?

[jm1220]

This is still really, really good. And I really think that pretty much the entire area is snow from 51 hours and after, based on the dynamics and synoptics that are being shown. 

 

I agree, it's still a crazy solution once everything stacks up, lol (what I would give for this to verify), and the model's still probably too warm with the CCB once it starts getting going. Hopefully we see a wicked squall line blow up over the Gulf and it crawls, bud.

[Mr Torchey]

Thats an insane amount of qpf here with snow to sleet back to snow, and in my opinion the sleet is questionable here..........absolute beatdown for ct.

[Allsnow]

Verbatim jackpot is western and sw ct. North shore Long Island . SV maps are no weenie. Warlock gets close to a foot on this run

[IsentropicLift]

lol.. GFS gives the NYC area more snow than Boston..

This could go bad for Boston in multiple ways. She could come inland and put Boston in the dry slot or on the east side, or she could stall out south of Long Island and become vertically stacked before the really strong CCB arrives up that way.

[Allsnow]

Thats an insane amount of qpf here with snow to sleet back to snow, and in my opinion the sleet is questionable here..........absolute beatdown for ct.

Yeah 2 feet plus if correct for u

[winterwarlock]

While this 18z run of the GFS looks great, let's remember, it's the 18z GFS! ha ha ha Good sign though regardless.

 

 

was just going to say that too

[Zelocita Weather]

WOW! What a run....

[Dosh]

Verbatim jackpot is western and sw ct. North shore Long Island . SV maps are no weenie. Warlock gets close to a foot on this run

 

Yep, the interior would see incredible ratios while the city and suburbs get a foot of wet plaster

[jm1220]

So I guess 6 inches for NYC/ Western LI  is a lock and the maximum potential if there is less mixing or rain is?

It's still a very chaotic situation and many solutions are on the table for us-we're pretty much on the edge of little vs. snow heaven. After 0z hopefully we can start locking in a decent event at least,

[Allsnow]

was just going to say that too

That is a old wise tale from back on eastern. 18z has just as much info as 00z will have etc etc. no run of the gfs is more important then the other

[JERSEYSNOWROB]

It's great to look at guys, but keep expectations low for now. Trust me I'm excited too, but until the 00z runs start showing this, it's best to be conservative at this point. For the sake of your health and sanity. ha ha ha

[SnowGoose69]

Thats an insane amount of qpf here with snow to sleet back to snow, and in my opinion the sleet is questionable here..........absolute beatdown for ct.

 

Sleet/Freezing rain never should really be forecast in these scenarios...often times it gets mentioned by TV Mets but in the cold sector of a deepening low if you're going from rain to snow the typical transition is a brief RAPL period lasting 15-30 minutes, then RASN for up to 1 hour then snow.

[Kaner587]

It's still a very chaotic situation and many solutions are on the table for us-we're pretty much on the edge of little vs. snow heaven. After 0z hopefully we can start locking in a decent event at least,

i dont think we can stress enough this all or nothing deal. Only strengthened this sentiment with the 18z suite. From nam showing nothing (most likely wrong but who knows) to the GFS to the RGEM likely being a HECS

[Kaner587]

Sleet/Freezing rain never should really be forecast in these scenarios...often times it gets mentioned by TV Mets but in the cold sector of a deepening low if you're going from rain to snow the typical transition is a brief RAPL period lasting 15-30 minutes, then RASN for up to 1 hour then snow.

exactly. Sleet does occur on occasion in the warmer sector of a coastal, like south shore of LI and jersey shore, but in this situation its highly unlikely an area sees anything more than transient sleet/freezing rain before going over to rain or back to snow

[CoastalWx]

It's definitely a little warm near NJ and NYC, but it flips to a bomb. Western CT would win here, but remember the little nuances with these systems over 48hrs out.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Yep, the interior would see incredible ratios while the city and suburbs get a foot of wet plaster

 

That would actually be a worst case scenario as 65mph wind gusts on the island and a foot of plaster would mean another several hundred thousand outage storm in the middle of winter.

[sferic]

^{Love to see NYC's all time snow record from a couple years back (the one that replaced 1947's) broken then I'll swear off snow for a year.}

 

^{Do any models even hint at a Biblical snowstorm for NYC/LI?}

[SnowGoose69]

exactly. Sleet does occur on occasion in the warmer sector of a coastal, like south shore of LI and jersey shore, but in this situation its highly unlikely an area sees anything more than transient sleet/freezing rain before going over to rain or back to snow

 

In a slow developing Miller B scenario like 1/2003 or 1/2011 there were some sustained sleet periods but yeah this system is too mature by the time it gets here for any lengthy mixing.

[Brian5671]

It's definitely a little warm near NJ and NYC, but it flips to a bomb. Western CT would win here, but remember the little nuances with these systems over 48hrs out.

the good news is that the window for a  much further east path would appear to be closing fast....had GFS gone even a little east I would have been concerned.