Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 have you read the posts? yes we understand that when the 850 line and freezing line are north of you, that equates to liquid precip. The argument is that under the CCB all bets are off. We've seen this NUMEROUS times even in the past 4-5 years. Oh please, we've had storms where it's rained on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is a beautiful run up this way, pure model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What an absolute bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gfs stalls this storm further south we are still snowing into Saturday afternoon. Big winner is not boston on this run..it's northern central Long Island and all of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 I give up. You guys need to realize not all of the CCB precip will be falling as snow. It's only snow from hour 54 onwards, all precip that falls UNTIL hour 54 on the GFS is rain. If the synoptics and dynamics of the GFS verified, i would bet a significant amount of money that your premise in the post above would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wouldn't "congratulate" anyone except eastern New England yet, lol. The phase still is a little later than I would like and results in it being too warm. I'd really like to see the 500mb close off south of us. But for sure, most of us would get annihilated anyway by backlashing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WE GOT THE GFS! As JB said the area that does best might change/mix with rain for a time, but when you have 2-3" QPF to work with thats ok. Looking like a biggie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some of us might get more than Boston this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh please, we've had storms where it's rained on the back end. dude refer to earthlight. you have not a clue what you're talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still a amazing run for me though. 1-3ft. 3ft might be over the top though. Nah 8-24" my call, because of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey guys before you blow your loads,at hour 51 the precip over our area is RAIN! Keep in mind that very strong 850 hPa low over upstate new york won't be giving up easily, there will be a lot of midlevel warm air to deal with, and BL temps will be horrible. It doesn't matter what the GFS says the primary will do because it holds onto it too long as it is a known doucmented bias in coastal transfer scenarios. The CCB is overhead 54-60 and the GFS's inability to detect dynamics under the CCB due to it's resolution limitations means the thermal profile is way too warm. It is all snow in those 6 hours without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Everyone should read this and read it again concerning the nam. Thanks Doug. The NAM has often been wrong within 6-12 hrs with details so I am not sure why people are sweating a long range run for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It is in the process of changing over and probably snowing under the deform band with dramatic dynamic cooling ongoing as the mid level lows offshore take over. And then it's heavy snow for a good period after that. i draw the R/S transition line exactly at hour 54. Everything after that is snow. I wanna see the 24 hour precip map from h54-h80 before I call this a 1 foot+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I give up. You guys need to realize not all of the CCB precip will be falling as snow. It's only snow from hour 54 onwards, all precip that falls UNTIL hour 54 on the GFS is rain. I think it would change over at hour 51, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 very snow run...snow maps should be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats everyone. We've been waiting two years for a storm like this. thanks.... but nothing has happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Max qpf for storm over Long Island and ct. 2.5-4 of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the hi-res nam on SV shows some funky temps both bl and mid levels, but in the end is a bomb and everyone still gets significant accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 3"+ for western Long Island on this run. Paul Kocin special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still ripping up in NNJ at 63. This will have double digit totals in all of NNJ easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 i draw the R/S transition line exactly at hour 54. Everything after that is snow. I wanna see the 24 hour precip map from h54-h80 before I call this a 1 foot+ event. You're assuming a model with the resolution of the GFS can accurately depict the dynamic cooling process in a cold conveyor belt deformation band. We've seen in the past that it often can't. This is the Euro from last night but 1 to 1.5 degrees warmer in the column from 800-925 hPa. Ill take the Euro thermals any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gfs SV snow maps. 12-18 for NYC. 8-12 central nj. 18-24 central Long Island. Western ct 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like HM agrees with Dsnowx53's sediments and others regarding that convection near the Gulf. Per HM in the Philly thread: There is still potential we go from crappy mixing / rain to a full-fledged comma head-induced snowfall with near blizzard conditions, even into PHL. The most likely areas of course have been highlighted perfectly by Mt Holly. I have to run now but I'm looking forward to the 00z suite. Let the convection roar across the Gulf / Southeast States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NE NJ/NYC from 2-3" QPF, I would estimate 70-80% as snow....Still should give 12-20" across most of the region I would think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 With Miller B's, you always have to be very careful that H5 doesn't close off so rapidly and the SLP turns NW in over New England. That's normally with PHL to NYC get hammered from Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have what most models are showing to be a 1036-1038 mb high sprawled out over SE Canada. I would think some of the models may be under doing the amount of CAD that will occur. Heavy freezing rain over to Heavy snow for the NW burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 While this 18z run of the GFS looks great, let's remember, it's the 18z GFS! ha ha ha Good sign though regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yea...No way in hell that is rain.. You're assuming a model with the resolution of the GFS can accurately depict the dynamic cooling process in a cold conveyor belt deformation band. We've seen in the past that it often can't.This is the Euro from last night but 1 to 1.5 degrees warmer in the column from 800-925 hPa. Ill take the Euro thermals any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I give up. You guys need to realize not all of the CCB precip will be falling as snow. It's only snow from hour 54 onwards, all precip that falls UNTIL hour 54 on the GFS is rain. i dont know if the gfs is right, but if that ccb happens as depicted,i would bet a lot of money that it will be snow. regardless, the gfs result verbatim is pretty damn good for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wouldn't "congratulate" anyone except eastern New England yet, lol. The phase still is a little later than I would like and results in it being too warm. I'd really like to see the 500mb close off south of us. But for sure, most of us would get annihilated anyway by backlashing snow. This is still really, really good. And I really think that pretty much the entire area is snow from 51 hours and after, based on the dynamics and synoptics that are being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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