Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 48 rain from ewr south. Phase is happening off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 48 rain from ewr south. Phase is happening off delmarva Phase off Delmarva is all we need to see. Huge solution coming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looked great until 51. gets the ccb going over us and 850s warm above zero. rain. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 51 heavy rain for area. Temps yet to crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh. My. God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GFS is already developing the CCB northwest of the surface low at 48 hours along the Mid Atlantic coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 hr 54 makes it all ok :0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting to note that the 12z ECM EPS Control was much further west than the operational and significantly stronger as well. In weenie speak: it was a HECS for NYC and a BECS for BOS. I honestly wouldn't be surprise to see the 00z ECM shift back to the more western solution. The ECm EPS is a monster. Yes it is . just looked. Wish I could post the images. Mirrors Euro from 00z if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmmm. Not what I would have expected at 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay this just proves that the 18z NAM is complete garbage and belongs in the trash Especially when it's 4 km counterpart that Anthony posted even disagrees with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well I'll be a sun of a gun... 18z GFS develops some wicked banding right over NYC/LI Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Temps crashing hr 54. Probably snow at that he for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is a snowbomb for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS looked great until 51. gets the ccb going over us and 850s warm above zero. rain. ugh A CBB over us and it's raining? I doubt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 CCb is right over NYC at 54 hours...would be shocked if that wasnt snow for much of NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yup. Weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 57 NYC getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey guys before you blow your loads,at hour 51 the precip over our area is RAIN! Keep in mind that very strong 850 hPa low over upstate new york won't be giving up easily, there will be a lot of midlevel warm air to deal with, and BL temps will be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Congrats everyone. We've been waiting two years for a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 60 mod snow NYC. Central Long Island and ct getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hour 57 would pretty make up for this entire sh*t winter Amazing banding right over NJ/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hmmm. Not what I would have expected at 51. I honestly wouldn't worry, the GFS may be too warm. That CCB is really cranking and it's going to cool the surface quickly. I worry about an extended period of heavy freezing rain in the I-287 corridor. Could be a situation for a few hours where the 850's are above freezing while the surface is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey guys before you blow your loads,at hour 51 the precip over our area is RAIN! Keep in mind that very strong 850 hPa low over upstate new york won't be giving up easily, there will be a lot of midlevel warm air to deal with, and BL temps will be horrible. have you read the posts? yes we understand that when the 850 line and freezing line are north of you, that equates to liquid precip. The argument is that under the CCB all bets are off. We've seen this NUMEROUS times even in the past 4-5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Heavy snow still at hr 63 for ct and Long Island They are the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I give up. You guys need to realize not all of the CCB precip will be falling as snow. It's only snow from hour 54 onwards, all precip that falls UNTIL hour 54 on the GFS is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the rain at hr 51 won't mean much in the grand scheme of things. looks like this is going to be big, but I wouldn't lock it until next euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hour 57 would pretty make up for this entire sh*t winter Amazing banding right over NJ/LI Very nice indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still ripping up in NNJ at 63. This will have double digit totals in all of NNJ easy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hey guys before you blow your loads,at hour 51 the precip over our area is Keep in mind that very strong 850 hPa low over upstate new york won't be giving up easily, there will be a lot of midlevel warm air to deal with, and BL temps will be horrible. It is in the process of changing over and probably snowing under the deform band with dramatic dynamic cooling ongoing as the mid level lows offshore take over. And then it's heavy snow for a good period after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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