MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hi res nam disagrees with the Nam http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=18ℑ=nam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow, I didn't realize that it was that accurate. Appreciate the insight. I will say that it's still a bit outside of its deadly range, but it's much more reliable at 48 and 54 than the NAM is, for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGEM is gorgeous...borderline blizzard for the entire area. It's definitely out of it's most accurate range though...so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS started....biggest run in a looong time for us...if trending weaker/SE with the southern stream, I am concerned....if not looking good. Good to have the GGEM/RGEM/SREFs/EURO in your camp...but I want the GFS. 0z will be the point where I start really getting optimistic if the models hold onto or strengthen the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z RGEM looks like a weenie drew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z gfs out to 27 looks incredibly different than the nam lol. looks pretty solid so far lets see how it unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z gfs may make people faint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGEM H48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z gfs may make people faint. in a good way? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow, I didn't realize that it was that accurate. Appreciate the insight. It's pretty deadly inside 24 especially now that it has 4DVAR initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z gfs out to 33 looks amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 in a good way? -skisheep Yes. Let's see how it plays out. Looks good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Southern stream looks great on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 don't trust that model as much as the nam. it insisted that nyc was going to be under a norlun trough last weekend right up until the last possible minute, then backed off. nam did the same. they flip flop way too much the rgem has been kicking them's you kno what all winter, why are you choosing to trust the nam,which had the same problem with the norlurn since you keep saying it, i want to know your reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You can clearly see the positive feedback response to increase the heights more ahead of our southern stream wave on this run compared to the 12z run. Let's do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 All the known biases of the various models are being chipped away one run at a time. This is great, what's unfolding here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 at 39 low is intensifying sub 1004 on hse. Looks pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGEM H48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 39 the phase is going to happen earlier on 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that southern stream is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This run is going to look like 00z euro from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That mother of god pic can be used for the gfs too. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's pretty deadly inside 24 especially now that it has 4DVAR initialization You learn something new every day. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGEM H48 Sweet mercy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Blizzard incoming on the GFS?!!! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol hr 45 looks like the 00z euro from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 45 mod preciep in area. 850's through Ttn. Surface just north of NYC. 999 east of norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Interesting to note that the 12z ECM EPS Control was much further west than the operational and significantly stronger as well. In weenie speak: it was a HECS for NYC and a BECS for BOS. I honestly wouldn't be surprise to see the 00z ECM shift back to the more western solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That mother of god pic can be used for the gfs too. Lol. Okay this just proves that the 18z NAM is complete garbage and belongs in the trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Its on gentleman!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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