sn0w Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NJZ002-NYZ067>070-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON... * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S. So basically I'm going to lose power for a week again, lol. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeh , If it`s stronger like the Euro has believed for the last 3 or so days , the deepening process is faster you close off earlier in the cycle , its a colder and a more rubost solution . Most of discussions for DC area are that the low to the northwest of DC(Ohio Valley) will provide too much mild air. So I am asking that if this southern stream is stronger would that weaken, strenghthen or have no effect on the Ohio Valley low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeh , If it`s stronger like the Euro has believed for the last 3 or so days , the deepening process is faster you close off earlier in the cycle , its a colder and a more rubost solution . The Euro has a good handle on the convection now so I don't think that it will have much of an impact on its forecast. But the NAM has been notorious for big misses in convection strength and placement with skews its runs form time to time. Heck, the NAM was even off with the convection on the late December run the day of the storm. I am not sure why they can't fix the NAM's initializations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Overlooked freezing rain threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem appears to be a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 come on - uncalled for. This is a discussion board where everyone, not only the idealists, get to post ideas. Is there such a real difference between 3-6" and 4-8"? Yes there is a huge difference. And it's not 4-8", it's 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaverickTrader Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Sticking with my 8:00AM forecast. NewYork City 4"-6" . Long island 7"-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem is the nirvana scenario for us all. Massive snow bomb 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There you go, winterwarlock. We have shown meteorologically why the NAM is wrong and the Euro is more likely to be right. The NAM is completely missing the convection that is currently going on, while the Euro has a better handle on it. I'd argue that the convection currently going on bodes well for the southern stream, and I'd be skeptical of models trying to really dampen it out. However, I can definitely see it moving too quickly in the progressive regime. But considering the height rises that would result from the increased convection, it might be able to slow down enough for an earlier phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem really hammers the area. It looks really nice. don't trust that model as much as the nam. it insisted that nyc was going to be under a norlun trough last weekend right up until the last possible minute, then backed off. nam did the same. they flip flop way too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem appears to be a HECS. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm already pumped for the Euro tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maps will be posted soon. Tmagan gets them I believe. Its like the early arw bombs on the srefs. Destroys all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There you go, winterwarlock. We have shown meteorologically why the NAM is wrong and the Euro is more likely to be right. The NAM is completely missing the convection that is currently going on, while the Euro has a better handle on it. I'd argue that the convection currently going on bodes well for the southern stream, and I'd be skeptical of models trying to really dampen it out. However, I can definitely see it moving too quickly in the progressive regime. But considering the height rises that would result from the increased convection, it might be able to slow down enough for an earlier phase. Everyone should read this and read it again concerning the nam. Thanks Doug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just got a WSW notice on my phone calling for 6-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maps will be posted soon. Tmagan gets them I believe. Its like the early arw bombs on the srefs. Destroys all of us. The big thing here is the primary is dead by 48 hrs...and it looks like the h7 lows are consolidating further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Personally if I was doing NYC forecasts I'd probably just put the NRN part of the 3 ERN CT counties and maybe Putnam/Orange into WSWs right now, way too uncertain still about the rest of the areas. i disagree wsw as opposed to warning allows for uncertainty....regardless i will be shocked if wsw arent issued forwholenymetro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maps will be posted soon. Tmagan gets them I believe. Its like the early arw bombs on the srefs. Destroys all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maps will be posted soon. Tmagan gets them I believe. Its like the early arw bombs on the srefs. Destroys all of us. Definitely need to see the h54 panel to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Personally if I was doing NYC forecasts I'd probably just put the NRN part of the 3 ERN CT counties and maybe Putnam/Orange into WSWs right now, way too uncertain still about the rest of the areas. i disagree wsw as opposed to warning allows for uncertainty....regardless i will be shocked if wsw arent issued for whole nymetro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS started....biggest run in a looong time for us...if trending weaker/SE with the southern stream, I am concerned....if not looking good. Good to have the GGEM/RGEM/SREFs/EURO in your camp...but I want the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i disagree wsw as opposed to warning allows for uncertainty....regardless i will be shocked if wsw arent issued forwholenymetro They have already been issued for everyone from TTN north and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Maps will be posted soon. Tmagan gets them I believe. Its like the early arw bombs on the srefs. Destroys all of us. Off the delmarva. Brings a tear to my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Most of discussions for DC area are that the low to the northwest of DC(Ohio Valley) will provide too much mild air. So I am asking that if this southern stream is stronger would that weaken, strenghthen or have no effect on the Ohio Valley low The only effect the southern stream energy will have on the northern stream low will be when it phases with it. That will cause the activity to shift offshore with the coastal low and for the energy to shift, which causes a strong low to also form aloft and close off. This causes the warm air to end its northward advance, and develop very heavy precip to the west and north of it due to effective moisture transport around the closed off mid level lows. So we want the phase to happen as soon as possible. If they remain two separate entities, we keep the warm air and a lot less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Definitely need to see the h54 panel to confirm. only goes out 48hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The RGEM is a much better (accurate) model than the NAM, IMO. It's probably one of the more underrated models we have. I can't think of a short term model that's better than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS started....biggest run in a looong time for us...if trending weaker/SE with the southern stream, I am concerned....if not looking good. Good to have the GGEM/RGEM/SREFs/EURO in your camp...but I want the GFS. When the GFS has funky runs on the 18Z it tends to be suppressed and SE, I would not worry at all until 00Z runs do something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The RGEM is a much better (accurate) model than the NAM, IMO. It's probably one of the more underrated models we have. I can't think of a short term model that's better than the RGEM. Wow, I didn't realize that it was that accurate. Appreciate the insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 only goes out 48hrs... There actually is a secret 54 hour panel of the 18z RGEM that only tmagan knows how to get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There actually is a secret 54 hour panel of the 18z RGEM that only tmagan knows how to get Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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