TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/ HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 wsw for NYC 6-10in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not too shabby for our friends to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 As expected Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...CTZ009>012-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 20 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it will change...3-6 will probably end up being the call tomorrow Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Winter Storm Watch for NYC. 6-10 inches of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Worcester is somewhat in the same boat as NE parts of this area, if this phase is late they could end up with a garden variety snow event while BOS is destroyed, Worcester is certainly sitting prettier than BDL/HFD but there is danger there that they could at least not see more than 8 inches. Exactly why I said before if NYC/NJ miss out we won't ve the only ones fuming, most of WRN-CNTRL MA and NRN CT will be too. True, they just always seems to find a way to get a lot of snow. Far enough away from taint, and close enough to the storm to get the good stuff. It's literally come down to a matter of hours with regards to the phasing. 6 hours +/- makes a worlds of difference for a lot of us in NYC/New England. Boston sure is sitting pretty though...what I would do to be there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can we leave the predictions on what the nws offices will do tomorrow out of this thread? Jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 these are some pretty bold forecasts this far out. Methinks upton and mt holly realize high bust potential on either end here. Better to get the word out since an earlier phase means the difference between 3-6 and 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHTINTO SATURDAY MORNING...NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515-/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 25 to 35mph with gusts to 60mph might eventually end up in a blizzard watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Western Essex good for 6-12" w/ heavy snow and winds to 50mph per new NWS forecast....no southern new england storm but Ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Southern stream energy is stronger and the Euro sees that . Thats where the difference is .If the Southern branch is stronger , it closes off faster and you get a deeper storm - ala Euro and better CCB ala - Euro , so thats prob the error . The Euro ensembles ticked west , which gives me solice that it doesn`t kick it further east at 0z . But the NAM at 54 hrs isnt exactly in its sniper range , I wouldnt use the Euro control either , so I am being fair , but 12 hours ago the NAMs 6z had the storm headed towards Bermuda . It just caught the track today , tomorrow it may figure out the Southern branch is where the main focus should be not the northern SW . If the southern stream turns out stronger would that aid or thwart the development of the Ohio vally low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/ HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. With those winds , thats going to wind up being a wide spread BLIZZARD warning from NNJ to Maine . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 25 to 35mph with gusts to 60mph might eventually end up in a blizzard watch. agree, sort of. I think there is a fairly good shot of a blizzard WARNING for eastern LI and CT bc by the time this is decided it will be within 24 hours of the start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why? just a hunch...I mean the Euro showed 3-6 for central jersey pretty much its last go around. I am not a met so they must have their reasoning but even the GFS was not that big a hit for Central Jersey...just think they are rather bullish here JMO not bashing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's amazing what slight differences can do in the overall scheme of things. If the southern stream vorticy is stronger or the phase is a little bit quicker, than we would probably see 12"+. On the other hand, if it's a little bit later and the southern stream vorticy is weaker (kind of like the Nam shows) than we could get very little, maybe a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it will change...3-6 will probably end up being the call tomorrow Please go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Part of the reason this run may be off from others is the idea that Dsnowx53 has been saying all along....convection associated with the southern shortwave. Just take a look at the actual radar (3:08) vs. the NAM simulated radar (4:00) actual.JPG sim.JPG The simulated radar has no strong convection (>35 dbZ), whereas in reality there are strong storms with >50 dbZ signals throughout the GOM. Great observation. Thanks for illustrating my point. Given how much convection is actually occurring, you'd think the models would be wrong in dampening the southern stream so much. The increased convection should help to increase the heights downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it will change...3-6 will probably end up being the call tomorrow If the 0z models back off, then that's a possibility, so far, only the nam is showing next to nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 new afd very informative. Being cautious at the moment but they highlight the possibilities well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeh , If it`s stronger like the Euro has believed for the last 3 or so days , the deepening process is faster you close off earlier in the cycle , its a colder and a more rubost solution . If the southern stream turns out stronger would that aid or thwart the development of the Ohio vally low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Please go away come on - uncalled for. This is a discussion board where everyone, not only the idealists, get to post ideas. Is there such a real difference between 3-6" and 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 come on - uncalled for. This is a discussion board where everyone, not only the idealists, get to post ideas. Is there such a real difference between 3-6" and 4-8"? Banter thread joke material Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I dont know If I have ever seen Tauton paint such a large 24 inch area 48 hours in advance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ORH- 18z RGEM is really amped at 48h...too bad we can't see a 60 hour panel. Its like the opposite of the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rgem really hammers the area. It looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone post the RGEM? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Banter thread joke material its just the response that causes all the trouble. People are allowed to disagree, its a free country, but everyone should be allowed and able to post their ideas. Last I checked this subforum had like 2 or 3 mets who post consistently, the rest of us its a pot/kettle syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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