jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton Wow, that's probably the highest I've ever seen a snowfall forecast from Upton, what they're forecasting for NE CT. I think the highest generally I've seen was 18-20" for Boxing Day 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 euro gives 6-10 for NYC more northern parts. GFS is 4-8. WHat exactly are you looking at. And I assume you disagree with upton too? BTW not saying I agree or that I think were going to see a foot, but this is what is being depicted as of this aftn. And I see you changed your original post to 7in. Im not sure who in here is saying anything more than that AT THIS JUNCTURE. The Euro dos not give NYC 6-10" BK/SI are in the 3-6" range, BX & N Queens are in the 6-8" range. Uptons new map look to be agreeing with the Euro. Pretty much 6-7" citywide with more NW & NE of the city.. Pretty much my thinking all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They are not showing up yet on the NWS site but apparently Mt Holly has put up watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those numbers are probably a long way off from the final outcome. agreed. But busting both too low and too high are incredibly high probability options at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR EAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-062-071000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.130208T1800Z-130209T1200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE- NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE POCONOS. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING, THEN IT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SLEET AND RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ GORSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Part of the reason this run may be off from others is the idea that Dsnowx53 has been saying all along....convection associated with the southern shortwave. Just take a look at the actual radar (3:08) vs. the NAM simulated radar (4:00) actual.JPG sim.JPG The simulated radar has no strong convection (>35 dbZ), whereas in reality there are strong storms with >50 dbZ signals throughout the GOM. Great catch guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well Mount Holly WFO just put in central NJ so a watch for Long Island, NYC and CT looks all but inevitable now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They are not showing up yet on the NWS site but apparently Mt Holly has put up watches Yup, Mercer/Hunterdon/Monmouth NEward.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice 5-10. There you go warlock enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am now under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 agreed. But busting both too low and too high are incredibly high probability options at this point Agreed, you could just as easily double or tripple those numbers or cut them by 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottynic Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton must be weenies also then since they just doubled and tripled snow forecasts. but yet their AFD has much lower amounts....2-4 for NYC and 8-12 out far east-they will not be issuing watches this pm either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For us the situation remains very delicate, this is all but certain to be a prolific snow event fro SNE but we don't have the wiggle room. It could easily bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 snywx I will not argue with you over inches of snow. You're wrong about basically everything you've said. The argument ends here; the 3 in line on the euro is way down in central/southern NJ. That means over SI and BK its like 5 inches and near 10 inches in northern bronx. So 5-10 for the NYC metro area. As the upton map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Mt Holly Snow Map... Sussex in the 10-14 range. Nice continuity with the western edge of Upton's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 but yet their AFD has much lower amounts....2-4 for NYC and 8-12 out far east-they will not be issuing watches this pm either first off, afd is from 117. Second of all they just updated their snow amounts, so obv they dont think 2-4 for NYC anymore. Also, twcman was in a webinar with them around 130 and they said high probability of wsw with their afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 but yet their AFD has much lower amounts....2-4 for NYC and 8-12 out far east-they will not be issuing watches this pm either I dont see an updated AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 first off, afd is from 117. Second of all they just updated their snow amounts, so obv they dont think 2-4 for NYC anymore. Also, twcman was in a webinar with them around 130 and they said high probability of wsw with their afternoon package. you are right...my bad. 4pm update is pending...would think they go with WSW's now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Personally if I was doing NYC forecasts I'd probably just put the NRN part of the 3 ERN CT counties and maybe Putnam/Orange into WSWs right now, way too uncertain still about the rest of the areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Southern stream energy is stronger and the Euro sees that . Thats where the difference is .If the Southern branch is stronger , it closes off faster and you get a deeper storm - ala Euro and better CCB ala - Euro , so thats prob the error . The Euro ensembles ticked west , which gives me solice that it doesn`t kick it further east at 0z . But the NAM at 54 hrs isnt exactly in its sniper range , I wouldnt use the Euro control either , so I am being fair , but 12 hours ago the NAMs 6z had the storm headed towards Bermuda . It just caught the track today , tomorrow it may figure out the Southern branch is where the main focus should be not the northern SW . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wouldn't shock me if Worcester got as high as #3 all time if this storm comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 snywx I will not argue with you over inches of snow. You're wrong about basically everything you've said. The argument ends here; the 3 in line on the euro is way down in central/southern NJ. That means over SI and BK its like 5 inches and near 10 inches in northern bronx. So 5-10 for the NYC metro area. As the upton map shows. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=510991985611059&set=a.175078442535750.35884.155048074538787&type=1&theater like I said 3-6 for SI & BK.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... NJZ004-103>105-NYZ071-070515- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/ EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wouldn't shock me if Worcester got as high as #3 all time if this storm comes to fruition Worcester is somewhat in the same boat as NE parts of this area, if this phase is late they could end up with a garden variety snow event while BOS is destroyed, Worcester is certainly sitting prettier than BDL/HFD but there is danger there that they could at least not see more than 8 inches. Exactly why I said before if NYC/NJ miss out we won't ve the only ones fuming, most of WRN-CNTRL MA and NRN CT will be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WSWs up in NJ now (in case it wasnt posted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING... NJZ004-103>105-NYZ071-070515- /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/ EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- 401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nice 5-10. There you go warlock enjoy it will change...3-6 will probably end up being the call tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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