dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around Because what it shows makes no meteorological sense. I am sure Mets here can offer up an explanation to why so I yield to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Thank you, now a watch is 100% guranteed. Hopefully that sends the trolls home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 very realistic representation btw. Euro/GFS/CMC/UK blend would be 4-8in in the metro are. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People like you come in here and say "throw away this model and that model" and then complain when their snow does not unfold. People hate to face reality in here oftentimes. I think you're right in many ways, but having the Euro and its ensembles, along with the GFS catching on and the UKIE / GGEM --- seems to be cause for some tempered, cautious excitement. To me, the NAM has simply been terrible this winter with many storms, especially outside of 36 hrs. Could it be right? Sure it could. Dynamic, complex situation. I'm not throwing anything away this close, but I like my odds w/ the Euro and Ensembles vs. the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Woah, gone from ~7 to ~12. even with the EURO backing off. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php i'd take that and run anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A few things for all you weenies to remember 1: This is not a NYC special. HOWEVER, that does not mean no snow for NYC. The fact is, the models are near as makes no difference fully locked on the solution that brings the most snow to New England. NYC still stands a shot at a moderate, possibly warning-criteria snowfall event, but this will have to depend on a strong CCB development in a short window of time as the two streams phase on friday afternoon 2: the NAM is still in a very iffy forecast area of 48-60 hours out from the actual event. It still has room to change its solution 3: Please do not throw the NAM out. It's actually being pretty consistent in its solution, which means it bears watching. It's highly likely that the very northward placement of the 850hPa low will inject a lot of dry air into the midlevels, which will choke off any moisture before the coastal blows up. 4: Keep calm, and wait for the GFS Consistency of a bad meteorological solution is not consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 then why do people point to it when its showing it juicy qpf I am not saying its right but the Euro even showed a weaker southern stream, so perhaps the NAM is following that trend. Does not seem like the other models are really in agreement necessarily on what is happening. Lets see what the GFS says It's the same people that love it's qpf. We all know to cut it in half. This model run is nothing like the euro, no phase and the northern stream remains dominate. It's not event worth getting work up about. You know it's a short range model. It went from 3-4 feet in Boston to 3-6. It's not consistent and had been horrible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php matches euro almost exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Woah, gone from ~7 to ~12. even with the EURO backing off. -skisheep has to do with other model support now. Agreement between all of the major global models of a warning criteria snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'll take the relatively consistent Euro and the Euro ensembles over the NAM past 48 hours any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This storm has big bust pontential but I don't know how anyone, especially a met can say it's not a storm for us when you have plenty of model support showing warning criteria snowfall. Given the chaos of this pattern and what you would generally think is an unfavorable pattern at 500mb for a bombing low here, there's still a substantial possibility of it being a miss. That's why I said I'm not jumping on board until the 0z runs tonight. If they don't back off I think we have a real shot, if they start to I think most of us can write off a significant event. The models can still very easily back off if a small player here or there changes, and we need way more to go right than Boston does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton Nice solid event. Pretty much what the models show now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Consistency in a bad meteorological solution is not consistency. Who says its bad? Maybe the NAM is catching onto just the right characteristics in this complex system that the low-resolution global models are not. Thing is, we don't know yet who is right and who is wrong. This storm is still 2 days away, and just a day ago, looked a hell of a lot different than it does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Have not seen one model today that have given over 6" for NYC. Too much wish casting in here from the kiddies euro gives 6-10 for NYC more northern parts. GFS is 4-8. WHat exactly are you looking at. And I assume you disagree with upton too? BTW not saying I agree or that I think were going to see a foot, but this is what is being depicted as of this aftn. And I see you changed your original post to 7in. Im not sure who in here is saying anything more than that AT THIS JUNCTURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Oh snap, where is my winter storm watch As for the NAM, I'm not going to stress out too much over it yet, the 12z run showed 70 inches of snow for Boston for christ sake. But still, a late phase isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Part of the reason this run may be off from others is the idea that Dsnowx53 has been saying all along....convection associated with the southern shortwave. Just take a look at the actual radar (3:08) vs. the NAM simulated radar (4:00) The simulated radar has no strong convection (>35 dbZ), whereas in reality there are strong storms with >50 dbZ signals throughout the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who says its bad? Maybe the NAM is catching onto just the right characteristics in this complex system that the low-resolution global models are not. Thing is, we don't know yet who is right and who is wrong. This storm is still 2 days away, and just a day ago, looked a hell of a lot different than it does now. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The nam is garbage, especially past 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Part of the reason this run may be off from others is the idea that Dsnowx53 has been saying all along....convection associated with the southern shortwave. Just take a look at the actual radar (3:08) vs. the NAM simulated radar (4:00) actual.JPG sim.JPG The simulated radar has no strong convection (>35 dbZ), whereas in reality there are strong storms with >50 dbZ signals throughout the GOM. lol thats is laughable actually. not even remotely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 8" according to the upton map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I sometimes think the NAM's problems lie in its slow bias alot of the time, its always so brutally slow beyond 36 hours than all other guidance and in this setup the fact its slower with everything, northern and southern stream it could be completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton must be weenies also then since they just doubled and tripled snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 in what universe has nam been consistent with this strom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Who says its bad? Maybe the NAM is catching onto just the right characteristics in this complex system that the low-resolution global models are not. Thing is, we don't know yet who is right and who is wrong. This storm is still 2 days away, and just a day ago, looked a hell of a lot different than it does now. It showed 3 feet of snow for Boston at 12z now it shows 6 inches at most. This is not consistency. It could happen this way, no one is saying it can't but it is highly unlikely. Someone above posted the radar comaprison of the convection in the gulf and the NAM sim radar. The NAM is laughably bad in what it depicted. It cannot be trusted this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 stormatsea, the issue i have is saying this is not a ny storma ablanket statement now. i agree with huge bust potential, but you just cant make that categorical statement now. it is just as bad as the people throwing out the nam 100 percent etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton must be weenies also then since they just doubled and tripled snow forecasts. to be honest I think the conversation has been pretty level headed in here. I'm not sure what snywx and storm at sea are really referring to. In fact it wasn't till either of them posted doubting some of whats being said that the conversation changed. NYC metro sub forum has been terrible at times this winter. This storm threat thread is not one of those times however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Upton must be weenies also then since they just doubled and tripled snow forecasts. Those numbers are probably a long way off from the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For Upton to give out snow totals 2 days in advance isn't like them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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