Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 nam really hangs on to the primary. 850 low continuing to hold on at 51 near rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 51 light rain/drizzle Sussex county might be frozen. Still very light preciep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...A POTENTIAL HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED TO DROP 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... MAZ005>007-013>018-RIZ001>004-070430- /O.CAN.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.130208T1200Z-130209T2100Z/ CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA- WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY... TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE... WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK 319 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATIONS...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 24 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL INCREASE INTENSITY DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. TRAVEL MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 fyi-blizzard watches have been posted for the Boston area. they should have issued weenie suicide watches instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Nam has a enlogated low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around look at yesterdays 18z than at 0z than 6z than 12z now 18z that's why it should be "tossed" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 luckily it very much looks like the NAM is on its own here. The most progressive of solutions have more precip and a more defined surface low than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not for nothing but most models give the immediate NYC area a good amount of rain. Relying on backlash snow will get you burned 9 times out of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around It's being tossed because it's an outlier at this point. No other model shows what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around It has be horrible this year and outside 48 hrs its useless. That's why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yeah,but im betting thingschange at 54 lol...funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No snow at all? Nothing? This storm has big bust pontential but I don't know how anyone, especially a met can say it's not a storm for us when you have plenty of model support showing warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Garbage run that phases way too late, but luckily it's an off hour NAM run. Even seems to be having a hard time with the storm development for New England and changes many of them to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not for nothing but most models give the immediate NYC area a good amount of rain. Relying on backlash snow will get you burned 9 times out of 10. backlash snow is different than relying on the ccb to produce. Everyone on here knows from getting burned that backlash snows rarely produce. Starting out as rain and getting dynamically cooled in the CCB is a whole other story. And that is what is going on here. I'm pretty sure most rational posters understand that if NYC metro doesn't get into the ccb its OVER. Slop at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This thread this afternoon--->>>> This is not a NYC storm. There is a huge bust potential here. I say just be happy for the Boston crowd. Throwing out any model at this point is just uncalled for. well you must be throwing out several models to say this is nota nyc storm with such definitiveness. honestly, that is a weenie comment just as much as some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is an extreme outlier and shouldn't even be analyzed right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 why should the NAM be tossed just because it does not show a good solution, if it showed a hit people would be lauding it for coming around. I consider the nam, jma, rgem and nogaps to all be untrustworthy models I don't care if they show a blizzard or not. They are almost as useless as the rpm model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This thread this afternoon--->>>> This is not a NYC storm. There is a huge bust potential here. I say just be happy for the Boston crowd. Throwing out any model at this point is just uncalled for. Not from NYC but HPC seems to disagree with a 40% shot at 8 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 51 light rain/drizzle Sussex county might be frozen. Still very light preciep Think it'll be enough to issue a watch or just an advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Garbage run that phases way too late, but luckily it's an off hour NAM run. Even seems to be having a hard time with the storm development for New England and changes many of them to rain. Boston went from 2-3 feet to 4-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not for nothing but most models give the immediate NYC area a good amount of rain. Relying on backlash snow will get you burned 9 times out of 10. lol. We don't just get backlash snow on the models. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People like you come in here and say "throw away this model and that model" and then complain when their snow does not unfold. People hate to face reality in here oftentimes. From Typhoon Tip in the NE subforum: "I would stick to the 12z guidance if you are NAM'ing ... pending some notification from the model diagnostic room at NCEP. this run has a continuity problem with the southern stream component." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It has be horrible this year and outside 48 hrs its useless. That's why... then why do people point to it when its showing it juicy qpf I am not saying its right but the Euro even showed a weaker southern stream, so perhaps the NAM is following that trend. Does not seem like the other models are really in agreement necessarily on what is happening. Lets see what the GFS says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New Snow map from Upton: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What a complete joke this run is. Completely misses the phase Boston amounts cut by 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 People like you come in here and say "throw away this model and that model" and then complain when their snow does not unfold. People hate to face reality in here oftentimes. there are mets that post in here all the time who are very rational, often correct and sound a whole lot different than you do. The majority in here realize how high the bust potential is with this. Some snow yes but it is likely all or nothing. You'd be hardpressed to find someone that totally disagrees with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Will you guys stop it shows the same thing at 18z that it did at 12z for NYC . It focuses on the Northern Branch too long . It`s wrong , Its junk and go with the Euro which has been a dam Chinese wall on this , It hasn`t waivered in 4 days , X the Nam , it will see the storm at 12z .Thats how bad this model is .. It loses the storm in New England on this run . How many times do the same models have to burn you .If the Euro and its Ensembles lose the storm wake me . You wana see the opposite . post the Euro control run , its equally bad as it overphased . Use the mid ground guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i guess storm at sea has to include upton in his weenie rant now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A few things for all you weenies to remember 1: This is not a NYC special. HOWEVER, that does not mean no snow for NYC. The fact is, the models are near as makes no difference fully locked on the solution that brings the most snow to New England. NYC still stands a shot at a moderate, possibly warning-criteria snowfall event, but this will have to depend on a strong CCB development in a short window of time as the two streams phase on friday afternoon 2: the NAM is still in a very iffy forecast area of 48-60 hours out from the actual event. It still has room to change its solution 3: Please do not throw the NAM out. It's actually being pretty consistent in its solution, which means it bears watching. It's highly likely that the very northward placement of the 850hPa low will inject a lot of dry air into the midlevels, which will choke off any moisture before the coastal blows up. 4: Keep calm, and wait for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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