MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are wetter this run than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 good bit weaker on the southern wave @ 39. Barely a closed SLP on the 18z, compared to the 12z having it @ 1008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM weakening the southern shortwave. oy yeah, check my post from 5 mins ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that southern stream is suspect on the 18z NAM... little too far SE and weaker compared to 12z. Not sure if it matters though, precip is breaking out in earnest over the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 weird evolution on the 18z nam. at 39 the southern stream s/w is puny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM weakening the southern shortwave. oy I wouldn't worry too much about what the NAM shows. But whatever would cause the phase to happen later, such as a fast and weak shortwave, would be bad for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are wetter this run than the operational. Where do you get the euro ensembles from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 after what the nam did at 6z i couldn't care less about it..it's clearly lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Weak southern stream shortwave is not as bad as a fast one, though. Hopefully it doesn't increase in speed. (Not that weak is good, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM weakening the southern shortwave. oy Not concerned. I need to see more of this before getting concerned. Besides, the Southern Storm looks pretty good right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ace, its kind of embeded in the flow. probably why the southern wave is weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Where do you get the euro ensembles from? From my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ens are sexy. Oh boy are they nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Snow starting in the area at hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The northern stream definitely looks better. But you can clearly see the point I was making earlier. Less convective precipitation from a weaker southern stream leads to less height increases out ahead of the wave, and thus a potentially further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Could care less bout the NAM at this point. Don't worry bout it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The northern stream definitely looks better. But you can clearly see the point I was making earlier. Less convective precipitation from a weaker southern stream leads to less height increases out ahead of the wave, and thus a potentially further east track. I understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Inclined to toss the NAM, the SREFS, and the RPM, all which have been awful this winter, and go with a GFS/EURO/UKIE/GGEM compromise with more weight on the Euro. The NAM is out to lunch with this system and seems to have no idea what it wants to do, and the SREFS and the RPM have just been so bad that they cannot be accepted. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol the nam already looks strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Could care less bout the NAM at this point. Don't worry bout it. It worried me that the Euro trended weaker with this wave as well the last two runs, but it's nice to see the ensembles stay strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ens are sexy. Oh boy are they nice. Can you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 850's getting ready to break 0 at 45. looks like garbage. not much precip. 1012 low off hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Lol the nam already looks strange what does strange mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The northern stream definitely looks better. But you can clearly see the point I was making earlier. Less convective precipitation from a weaker southern stream leads to less height increases out ahead of the wave, and thus a potentially further east track. Even 12 hours out sometimes the NAM can completely screw things up. But I definitely see what you mean. Hopefully the rest of the models stay as potent with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 lol take a look at the 42 sim radar. About as yuck as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 thankfully its the 18Z NAM which is likely less correct than a broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 48 from I-80 south is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam looks like its gonna be a crap run, don't get worried unless the gfs, euro, ukmet and canadian jump ship tonight. I don't trust the rgem or nogaps either, they flip and flop like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 fyi-blizzard watches have been posted for the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro and the ensemble mean looks like they are very close at H500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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