earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is more amplified and farther south/west with the northern stream already through 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are almost identical to last night, if not a hair stronger and farther west. Still the same amplified look at 500mb. last nights ens or last nights op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I stand corrected - i apologize. There are a few INSANE members in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are almost identical to last night, if not a hair stronger and farther west. Still the same amplified look at 500mb. Excellent. Who is to say that the Euro doesn't swing back with the 00z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 btw one 18z nam run is bound to be a weenie run whether its tn or tmrw. You can't go through an east coast snowstorm without one of these. I guess you can consider the 12z a weenie run, but Im hedging its the 18z that gives US some sort of weenie run, as SNE got theirs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not bad...not bad at all...borderline historic solutions on some of these SREF members...Still could go either way. Model error at 60 hours is pretty significant in threading the needle situations like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The 18z NAM is now running. Out to hour 18. its event more amped with the ridge out west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I stand corrected - i apologize. There are a few INSANE members in there The important thing is that there are very few complete misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it appears 7 maybe 8 of the SREF members are significant to major for our area. Pretty impressive. SNE cleans up though obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT posted the euro snow map on facebook http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles are almost identical to last night, if not a hair stronger and farther west. Still the same amplified look at 500mb. That's great news. Also alarming the op does not agree with the ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM is more amplified and farther south/west with the northern stream already through 21 hours. what kind of downstream implication would this have? its gonna be slower with the northern stream, which could lead to a late phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I stand corrected - i apologize. There are a few INSANE members in there Crazy. Looks like one member gives a small spot on the Cape 6" of precip, if all snow, that would be 60" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yeah, the Euro ensembles are a tick stronger with the SLP and ever so slightly to the west of last night's Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 what kind of downstream implication would this have? its gonna be slower with the northern stream, which could lead to a late phase... It doesn't appear slower, just more energetic and responding to the stronger ridging. It'll come west -- the 12z run is a huge outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREF's are way west too. Inside the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are we still looking at snow falling around here mid-day on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not a fan of the way the STJ shortwave is way out ahead of the northern stream and is flatter than 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 DT posted the euro snow map on facebook http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk 6" line cuts NYC in half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Excellent. Who is to say that the Euro doesn't swing back with the 00z run? That's really good news-if the ensembles swung back east I would've been pretty concerned. But as others have said, if we get a decent southern wave we should be good due to the amplifying trend in the northern stream. And we're close enough in to hope it's not a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 WSW just went up for NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gotta love the sprawled out 1036 high in Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Are we still looking at snow falling around here mid-day on Friday? looks to change back to snow friday afternoon by 4 or 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not sure if this posted, HPC met Paul Kocin has NYC now in the 40% prob for 4 inches at day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not sure if this posted, HPC met Paul Kocin has NYC now in the 40% prob for 4 inches at day 3. Thought it was 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not sure if this posted, HPC met Paul Kocin has NYC now in the 40% prob for 4 inches at day 3. check the map on page 11 of this thread. 40% of 8in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that southern stream is suspect on the 18z NAM... little too far SE and weaker compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z NAM weakening the southern shortwave. oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that southern stream is suspect on the 18z NAM... little too far SE and weaker compared to 12z. whats with that area of energy in OKLA - can/does that swing around the base of the northern vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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