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February 8th Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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The nam is basically the only model not showing at least 3-4 for NYC metro, which I fully expect to change in about 20 minutes. The part about this that is troubling is that I agree with many posters and mets with the sentiment that its an either or type of situation. There is really very little chance for a middle ground (even if the models will have you believe this this aftn). That doesn't mean we should be expecting 2 feet or nothing. But something on the order of 6-10+ or little to nothing. Lets see the trends over the next couple model runs though.

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Euro ensembles?

 

I believe the enembles and the newly popular EPS control run come out 3:30.

 

Model recap

 

GFS: 10:30AM, 4:30PM, 10:30PM, 4:30AM

GEFS: hour after the OP

NAM: 9:00 AM, 3:PM, 9:pm, 3:AM

ECM:  12:45AM, 12:45 PM

EC ensembles: 3:00 AM/PM

UKMET/GGEM:  11:AM / 11:30 PM

RGEM:   10PM, 4PM, 10:AM, 4AM

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