Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 btw on the sref low literally tracks right over the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Per SREFs? yes sorry should've specified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREF's are a nice model to have in your back pocket in this range. Very impressive for an ensemble mean. I'm guessing quite a few members crush us with the CCB. Looks wetter than the 9z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does the afternoon discussion come out for upton? 4 ish -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Okay, when the mets are telling you a watch is warrented a watch is warrented. The media is already hyping this as a 2 foot storm. Just turn on the radio. LOL - the media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 yes more important than actual amount of precip or low track, such high qpf signifies some agreement of CCB development overhead. Like we were all saying earlier this is imperative for this to be a significant storm for us. Too late we end up with slop. Agreed, the other option is that the primary dies out quickly, the coastal takes over but the phase is late and it's a complete miss. That is pretty much what the 12z NAM was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This has the potential of having the biggest snowfall spread between Boston and NYC since the April fools storm of 1997. All other occasions of big snows in Boston had a smaller spread between NYC. I still do not get to this day how we saw nothing in that storm, the setup if you look at it was perfect, 850/700 low...everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing we're going to have to watch out for is convection in/near the Gulf with our southern stream wave. The more convection and thunderstorms we see, the more likely we are to see a positive feedback response for increased heights out ahead of the wave. The increased heights out ahead of the wave would allow the southern stream wave to amplify a bit more and not race to the northeast as quickly. The northern stream was fine on the Euro, but the southern stream was not. But seeing lots of convection would be a good sign. That helped us out for Boxing Day. nice tidbit! that's your rutgers education kicking in. no penn state grad would have come up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks wetter than the 9z SREFs. Wetter and more frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This has the potential of having the biggest snowfall spread between Boston and NYC since the April fools storm of 1997. All other occasions of big snows in Boston had a smaller spread between NYC. On 2/25/10 I believe Central Park had 22" and Boston had only 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow. Upton has more than 50% of precip as rain. That's from this morning taking into account 0z runs at the latest, GFS was not quite onboard for us at 0z, and it's 12z run is much more. Would expect those numbers to go up when the afternoon package comes out. -skisheep EDIT: Map seems to have been updated at 1:22, but it's the identical map from this morning. Would expect those numbers to increase with the afternoon package, probably 20-30% higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wetter and more frozen. 500mb evolution is better as well (not surprisingly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This isn't a warning though it's just a watch, which means that it's a possibility but there is still uncertainty. Right now with all models showing warning criteria snowfall I think a watch makes sense. It can always be downgraded later. this definitely makes sense...i agree. But why not wait until after the 0Z models tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest RPM still has 36-48" for the area. God love the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I still do not get to this day how we saw nothing in that storm, the setup if you look at it was perfect, 850/700 low...everything Maybe something in here can explain it. I never got it either. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 A look at the actual weather maps ahead of the 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 500mb evolution is better as well (not surprisingly) The 500mb evolution actually indicates that it should be even more frozen than it is. Verbatim, the SREF mean is a snow bomb. Way too warm at the surface. Makes me more encouraged after the Euro which was a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just saw the Euro Accuweather pro snowfall map: 3-6" from TTN north and east into about Union County and southern Hunterdon County. The 6"+ line runs north and east of that through NYC and most of LI, though eastern Suffolk gets 9"+. Extreme SW CT also gets about 9-12", as does southern Upstate NY. I'm not great with the counties, but I'd say about 20-30 miles north of NYC is where the 9" line is, but you don't have to go too far NE to get into the 12" line. So I guess verbatim, JFK looks to be exactly 6", NYC maybe 7", Nassau County probably 6-9" (less west, more east), and Suffolk gets 9-13" (less west, more east). This map assumes a 10:1 snow to rain ratio. Edit: I made a few changes to this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New maps from Mr. Kocin, greatly improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest RPM still has 36-48" for the area. God love the RPM. Can you post please? The in me just can't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest RPM still has 36-48" for the area. God love the RPM. Too bad it has zero support, always good for a laugh or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest RPM still has 36-48" for the area. God love the RPM. It's got to be right sometime, maybe this is finally the time? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks wetter than the 9z SREFs. you sure, here is 9Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 The SREFs are warm to start for sure...through about 54 hours. Would like to see a cooling trend there especially on a mean. But they look good as the ccb develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just saw the Euro Accuweather pro snowfall map: 3-6" from TTN north and east into about Union County and southern Hunterdon County. The 6"+ line runs north and east of that through NYC and most of LI, though eastern Suffolk gets 12"+. Extreme SW CT also gets about a foot, as does southern Upstate NY. I'm not great with the counties, but I'd say about 20-30 miles north of NYC is where the 12" line is. So I guess verbatim, JFK looks to be exactly 6", NYC maybe 7", Nassau County probably 6-10" (less west, more east), and Suffolk gets 10-18" (less west, more east). This map assumes a 10:1 snow to rain ratio. A foot, not bad, I'll take it! What's timing look like for the changeover to rain and back to snow? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just saw the Euro Accuweather pro snowfall map: 3-6" from TTN north and east into about Union County and southern Hunterdon County. The 6"+ line runs north and east of that through NYC and most of LI, though eastern Suffolk gets 12"+. Extreme SW CT also gets about a foot, as does southern Upstate NY. I'm not great with the counties, but I'd say about 20-30 miles north of NYC is where the 12" line is. So I guess verbatim, JFK looks to be exactly 6", NYC maybe 7", Nassau County probably 6-10" (less west, more east), and Suffolk gets 10-18" (less west, more east). This map assumes a 10:1 snow to rain ratio. What about KMMU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 New maps from Mr. Kocin, greatly improved mod 40% chance at 8 or more isn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Latest RPM still has 36-48" for the area. God love the RPM. IF what you say is correct about the rpm and that verifies. .I propose every nyc forum member donate 10.00 to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I assume the NYC area stations are mostly rain... and that assumption would be incorrect. after some brief intial rain the coastal takes over and there is at least .75 frozen probably translating 6 inches solid NYC and more towards East LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 you sure, here is 9Z Yes, the new runs have the 1.5" contour west of the entire area with the 1.0" contour into Western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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