donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow. Upton has more than 50% of precip as rain. Those maps were from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1:28PM??? That's not this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Agreed. It's a fragile system right now, but there is still good concensus right now of a warning criteria snowfall for most of the area, thus watches should be hoisted. They can always downgrade to advisories if needed. Yeah, if I were at Upton, I'd definitely issue a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 No, they are going to issue winter storm watches this afternoon. It's nearly a gurantee. prudence, would be to wait on WSW for the NYC area. There is incredible uncertainty about what is going to happen and there is still 48 hr lead time...JMH(T)O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Eastern LI still does very well on the 12z Euro because they are able to capitalize on the banding for a long period of time and thus their column is cooled for more of the precipitation. There is a pretty sharp SW to NE gradient, as has been alluded to. so a phase a few hours earlier and most of the area gets hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow. Upton has more than 50% of precip as rain. Very good early call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 JFK might wind up with 3"-6" snow give or take a little on the ECMWF. Thanks Don - this year - beggers cant be choosers :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 so a phase a few hours earlier and most of the area gets hit Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Oh, and thanks for the more detailed info, Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 1:28PM??? That's not this morning. My bad, they updated it but didn't really make any changes from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 prudence, would be to wait on WSW for the NYC area. There is incredible uncertainty about what is going to happen and there is still 48 hr lead time...JMH(T)O. Okay, when the mets are telling you a watch is warrented a watch is warrented. The media is already hyping this as a 2 foot storm. Just turn on the radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs are out and they have very high qpf. 1.75+ NYC east. First 6 hours look warm then by hr 57 temps crash and rain changes to snow with significant accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those maps were from this morning. So baesd on the latest euro it could be less now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 please excuse this mby question, but I'm trying to convince the wife to drive up to vt from westchester thursday night instead of friday. can we be confident that schools in westchester will be cancelled Friday??? NWS forecast discussion seems to suggest rain during the day friday changing to snow at night???? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 well the fact that the euro was the only model showing that early phasing yesterday, and now backing off, tends to agree that it was a fluke. well not really a fluke, but too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So baesd on the latest euro it could be less now. Well the GFS trended very positively, so it might just be a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 prudence, would be to wait on WSW for the NYC area. There is incredible uncertainty about what is going to happen and there is still 48 hr lead time...JMH(T)O. I agree, watches are certain for CT and highly likely for LI and Hudson valley but I think the City and NE NJ they hold off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So baesd on the latest euro it could be less now. The maps were not based strictly on the 0z Euro. The GFS took a step in the direction of the Euro and the 12z Euro was not a blockbuster, but not bad either. Depending on the 18z runs, the evening maps might be bumped up somewhat. Watches might also be posted for at least parts of the forecast area by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Question for some of the mets out there, is the southern stream wave in a well sampled area yet? And if not did NOAA have any special missions for this storm? I didn't see any mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The maps were not based strictly on the 0z Euro. The GFS took a step in the direction of the Euro and the 12z Euro was not a blockbuster, but not bad either. Depending on the 18z runs, the evening maps might be bumped up somewhat. Watches might also be posted for at least parts of the forecast area by this evening. Thanks Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 prudence, would be to wait on WSW for the NYC area. There is incredible uncertainty about what is going to happen and there is still 48 hr lead time...JMH(T)O. This isn't a warning though it's just a watch, which means that it's a possibility but there is still uncertainty. Right now with all models showing warning criteria snowfall I think a watch makes sense. It can always be downgraded later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs are out and they have very high qpf. 1.75+ NYC east. First 6 hours look warm then by hr 57 temps crash and rain changes to snow with significant accums Could you post the SREF? Would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 well the fact that the euro was the only model showing that early phasing yesterday, and now backing off, tends to agree that it was a fluke. well not really a fluke, but too progressive. Other models caught onto a good phase as well though, so there must be something going on to make them think there could be a good and early phase. This might just be the beginning of an emerging consensus, since the various players should be fully sampled on land by now, or we could start to see a general backing off going into tonight to a more flat/progressive solution. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I agree, watches are certain for CT and highly likely for LI and Hudson valley but I think the City and NE NJ they hold off. They could hold off for areas SW of the city but I think they will coordinate with Mt. Holly and issue watches for the entire area. Just to clarify, all a watch means is that there is a 60% confidence in a 6" or greater snowfall. It's not committing to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I have them on SV so cant post but the evolution of the whole event looks good, 500mb closes off early, surface low near BM and lots of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREFs are out and they have very high qpf. 1.75+ NYC east. First 6 hours look warm then by hr 57 temps crash and rain changes to snow with significant accums SREF's are a nice model to have in your back pocket in this range. Very impressive for an ensemble mean. I'm guessing quite a few members crush us with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it appears roughly 0.75-0.8in precip falls frozen from NYC east. Obviously more onto LI and up into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 SREF's are a nice model to have in your back pocket in this range. Very impressive for an ensemble mean. I'm guessing quite a few members crush us with the CCB. yes more important than actual amount of precip or low track, such high qpf signifies some agreement of CCB development overhead. Like we were all saying earlier this is imperative for this to be a significant storm for us. Too late we end up with slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This has the potential of having the biggest snowfall spread between Boston and NYC since the April fools storm of 1997. All other occasions of big snows in Boston had a smaller spread between NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 it appears roughly 0.75-0.8in precip falls frozen from NYC east. Obviously more onto LI and up into CT Per SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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