StatenWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does the afternoon discussion come out for upton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For up here at least watches are coming this afternoon. Yeah no question about that.. Pretty much every model gives us warning criteria snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 When does the afternoon discussion come out for upton? 4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Was just in a webinar with Upton, they said "likely" to issue winter storm watches for the area with the afternoon package. Any mention of blizzard watches for the Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some qpf amounts from the 12z ECMWF: Belmar: 1.14” Bridgeport: 1.56” Caldwell: 1.03” Islip: 1.46” Montauk Point: 2.12” New York City: …JFK: 1.24” …LGA: 1.18” …NYC: 1.15” Newark: 1.10” Newburgh: 1.14” Poughkeepsie: 1.24” Sussex: 0.92” Teterboro: 1.11” Trenton: 0.87” Westhampton Beach: 1.64” White Plains: 1.25” Note: For many locations, a significant share of the precipitation falls as rain and/or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing we're going to have to watch out for is convection in/near the Gulf with our southern stream wave. The more convection and thunderstorms we see, the more likely we are to see a positive feedback response for increased heights out ahead of the wave. The increased heights out ahead of the wave would allow the southern stream wave to amplify a bit more and not race to the northeast as quickly. The northern stream was fine on the Euro, but the southern stream was not. But seeing lots of convection would be a good sign. That helped us out for Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some qpf amounts from the 12z ECMWF: Belmar: 1.14” Bridgeport: 1.56” Caldwell: 1.03” Islip: 1.46” Montauk Point: 2.12” New York City: …JFK: 1.24” …LGA: 1.18” …NYC: 1.15” Newark: 1.10” Newburgh: 1.14” Poughkeepsie: 1.24” Sussex: 0.92” Teterboro: 1.11” Trenton: 0.87” Westhampton Beach: 1.64” White Plains: 1.25” Note: For many locations, a significant share of the precipitation falls as rain and/or sleet. thanks Don. Its almost safe to say 30 - 40% is lost to rain or mixing which still yields a decent snowfall for NYC. Still plenty of tracking and trending to be had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some qpf amounts from the 12z ECMWF: Belmar: 1.14” Bridgeport: 1.56” Caldwell: 1.03” Islip: 1.46” Montauk Point: 2.12” New York City: …JFK: 1.24” …LGA: 1.18” …NYC: 1.15” Newark: 1.10” Newburgh: 1.14” Poughkeepsie: 1.24” Sussex: 0.92” Teterboro: 1.11” Trenton: 0.87” Westhampton Beach: 1.64” White Plains: 1.25” Note: For many locations, a significant share of the precipitation falls as rain and/or sleet. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For up here at least watches are coming this afternoon I'd say confidence is too low for Upton to issue any watches at this point. They'll probably want to wait for tonight and tomorrow morning's models first. Mt Holly could go with watches for the poconos/NW NJ however. stop it there is no chance upton doesnt issue watches for area by 5pm. btw id rather be jfk than poconos for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some qpf amounts from the 12z ECMWF: Belmar: 1.14” Bridgeport: 1.56” Caldwell: 1.03” Islip: 1.46” Montauk Point: 2.12” New York City: …JFK: 1.24” …LGA: 1.18” …NYC: 1.15” Newark: 1.10” Newburgh: 1.14” Poughkeepsie: 1.24” Sussex: 0.92” Teterboro: 1.11” Trenton: 0.87” Westhampton Beach: 1.64” White Plains: 1.25” Note: For many locations, a significant share of the precipitation falls as rain and/or sleet. I assume the NYC area stations are mostly rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We were able to close off soon enough for the early November storm, but everything since then has just been a little progressive for the best results here. I can remember the late December storm really blooming over New England. Hopefully, we don't get a 12z day of storm precip shift east like that one. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12292012.html Yeah, that one was frustrating to watch. But storms like that are common in Nina regimes where blocking is nonexistent. If we get a few hour period of good snow so we don't have to watch on the sidelines completely, I'll be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Some qpf amounts from the 12z ECMWF: Belmar: 1.14” Bridgeport: 1.56” Caldwell: 1.03” Islip: 1.46” Montauk Point: 2.12” New York City: …JFK: 1.24” …LGA: 1.18” …NYC: 1.15” Newark: 1.10” Newburgh: 1.14” Poughkeepsie: 1.24” Sussex: 0.92” Teterboro: 1.11” Trenton: 0.87” Westhampton Beach: 1.64” White Plains: 1.25” Note: For many locations, a significant share of the precipitation falls as rain and/or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any mention of blizzard watches for the Island? what???? They wont even put out WS watches for LI yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What analog storm would we use for this type of event? It's been a while since we've had a rain to snow miller B type storm. Seems closest to 12/25/02 only with more snow for areas further south. The January 2011 storm that hit LI and NE hard and gave the rest of the area 6 to 10" could be close but that was an all snow event and much shorter duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing we're going to have to watch out for is convection in/near the Gulf with our southern stream wave. The more convection and thunderstorms we see, the more likely we are to see a positive feedback response for increased heights out ahead of the wave. The increased heights out ahead of the wave would allow the southern stream wave to amplify a bit more and not race to the northeast as quickly. The northern stream was fine on the Euro, but the southern stream was not. But seeing lots of convection would be a good sign. That helped us out for Boxing Day. Funny, I was just looking at the current radar and the NAM simulated radar and was going to ask an amatuer-ish question regarding that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I assume the NYC area stations are mostly rain... I'd say about half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any mention of blizzard watches for the Island? Nope...they said blizzard conditions "possible" but only mentioned WS watches for now. Also had a slide showing two scenarios: early transfer SW of the area and later transfer east of LI. Said the later transfer is "most likely scenario" at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I assume the NYC area stations are mostly rain... you assume incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this looks like an all or nothing event to me. either this phases early enough or we get a few inches of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'd say about half. that a fairly substantial change from the 0Z EC, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 you assume incorrectly. I'd say about half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nope...they said blizzard conditions "possible" but only mentioned WS watches for now. Also had a slide showing two scenarios: early transfer SW of the area and later transfer east of LI. Said the later transfer is "most likely scenario" at this time. Not a bad call at all. They could always updgrade the WSW to Blizzard Warnings if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that a fairly substantial change from the 0Z EC, no?the 0z run was almost all snow and had much more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that a fairly substantial change from the 0Z EC, no? Yes. The Euro is still a solid event verbatim for us, but it's very close to being nearly nothing, but also very close to being 2 feet. We're going to have to continue to watch the evolution of the northern stream and southern stream waves on the models. I'm encouraged by the fact that the northern stream has gotten progressively more robust with each model package, but the southern stream could easily throw a wrench into things in a progressive regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 that a fairly substantial change from the 0Z EC, no? im a ladder? and im realistic. No, they are going to issue winter storm watches this afternoon. It's nearly a gurantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow. Upton has more than 50% of precip as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Eastern LI still does very well on the 12z Euro because they are able to capitalize on the banding for a long period of time and thus their column is cooled for more of the precipitation. There is a pretty sharp SW to NE gradient, as has been alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Yes. The Euro is still a solid event verbatim for us, but it's very close to being nearly nothing, but also very close to being 2 feet. We're going to have to continue to watch the evolution of the northern stream and southern stream waves on the models. I'm encouraged by the fact that the northern stream has gotten progressively more robust with each model package, but the southern stream could easily throw a wrench into things in a progressive regime. Agreed. It's a fragile system right now, but there is still good concensus right now of a warning criteria snowfall for most of the area, thus watches should be hoisted. They can always downgrade to advisories if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I assume the NYC area stations are mostly rain... JFK might wind up with 3"-6" snow give or take a little on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow. Upton has more than 50% of precip as rain. Keep in mind those were issued before the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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