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February 8th Potential Bomb Part II


earthlight

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  On 2/6/2013 at 7:51 PM, earthlight said:

The SREFs are warm to start for sure...through about 54 hours. Would like to see a cooling trend there especially on a mean. But they look good as the ccb develops.

Aren't those always too warm?  I've not really payed much attention since they have been bad this winter

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  On 2/6/2013 at 7:52 PM, Saturn510 said:

IF what you say is correct about the rpm and that verifies. .I propose every nyc forum member donate 10.00 to the board

Lets make it $100, ten times more likely to verify!

 

(Hey, the darn thing has to verify eventually, maybe now is it's time)(:) :) :))

-skisheep

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  On 2/6/2013 at 7:51 PM, skisheep said:

A foot, not bad, I'll take it! What's timing look like for the changeover to rain and back to snow?

 

-skisheep

 

 

I actually should say 9-12". Sorry for the confusion. There was a 9" contour that I missed. I'll look at the timing in a bit -- going to edit my original post. 

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  On 2/6/2013 at 7:53 PM, skisheep said:

Lets make it $100, ten times more likely to verify!

 

(Hey, the darn thing has to verify eventually, maybe now is it's time)( :) :) :))

-skisheep

I already donated a few weeks back! I would donate again if it directly correlates to an RPM verification, lol.

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The nam is basically the only model not showing at least 3-4 for NYC metro, which I fully expect to change in about 20 minutes. The part about this that is troubling is that I agree with many posters and mets with the sentiment that its an either or type of situation. There is really very little chance for a middle ground (even if the models will have you believe this this aftn). That doesn't mean we should be expecting 2 feet or nothing. But something on the order of 6-10+ or little to nothing. Lets see the trends over the next couple model runs though.

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  On 2/6/2013 at 7:56 PM, Rtd208 said:

Euro ensembles?

 

I believe the enembles and the newly popular EPS control run come out 3:30.

 

Model recap

 

GFS: 10:30AM, 4:30PM, 10:30PM, 4:30AM

GEFS: hour after the OP

NAM: 9:00 AM, 3:PM, 9:pm, 3:AM

ECM:  12:45AM, 12:45 PM

EC ensembles: 3:00 AM/PM

UKMET/GGEM:  11:AM / 11:30 PM

RGEM:   10PM, 4PM, 10:AM, 4AM

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