famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just set foot in there. I think I need to take a long shower after that. I still refuse to. If Tom had given me a link direct to his reaming I'd have looked, but I won't go looking myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 meme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 meme Lol Classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just heard them refer to this storm as winter storm Nemo on 104.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Finding nemo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 i just checked out NY discussion forum, results : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im reallly really not liking the trends on short ranger guidance and current radar obs for SEPA/EPA folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im reallly really not liking the trends on short ranger guidance and current radar obs for SEPA/EPA folks.... Glad I built in the upset guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im reallly really not liking the trends on short ranger guidance and current radar obs for SEPA/EPA folks.... Precip shield is having a hell of a time making it WNW'ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF > HRRR, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 major bust potential when waiting for back end stuff to hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 major bust potential when waiting for back end stuff to hit REPORTED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip shield is having a hell of a time making it WNW'ward. The coastal was never expected to get you. Its when that stom over erie transfers over that energy slides over us. The coastal was philly metro on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I've mentioned this over the last few days, but west of the best banding, subsidence is going to be a $itch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The coastal was never expected to get you. Its when that stom over erie transfers over that energy slides over us. The coastal was philly metro on east. This... Should we do one more name change before showtime tonight or just let the current one ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This... Should we do one more name change before showtime tonight or just let the current one ride? lol yes, make it good to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The coastal was never expected to get you. Its when that stom over erie transfers over that energy slides over us. The coastal was philly metro on east. Thanks for the clarification Tom! I thought intially the coastal was what was going to give us the mix/rain at the onset and once the energy transfers later in the day THEN we'd get the big snow. My apologies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thanks for the clarification Tom! I thought intially the coastal was what was going to give us the mix/rain at the onset and once the energy transfers later in the day THEN we'd get the big snow. My apologies! Well you are getting that, its very lgt. Besides those on crack nam runs, this was mainly immediate phl metro on east and south for the coastal. Wat you want to look for is how fast that northern stream storm hands off to the coastal. The faster the better, slower, worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well you are getting that, its very lgt. Besides those on crack nam runs, this was mainly immediate phl metro on east and south for the coastal. Wat you want to look for is how fast that northern stream storm hands off to the coastal. The faster the better, slower, worse. Gotcha, thank you. It does look like its moving quite rapidly across WPA / western NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good luck to you guys out east, I'm out in MDT holding out hope for 3". Hope the majority of you cash in! I also want to thank you all for your discussions and level-headiness. Much MUCH better than another subforum that I shall not speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The coastal was never expected to get you. Its when that stom over erie transfers over that energy slides over us. The coastal was philly metro on east. Eh, I don't think this is really true. The core was gonna stay SE, but the lighter edge precip was expected by the EC and NAM to make it past AVP. That obviously isn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 also, esp in heavier banding ratios should be north of 10:1 on the backside. Nothing like 20:1 or what not but 15:1 can be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it's basically a wait and see. Don't go screaming bust and what not when things were not suppose to get going till this evening. Could things trend bad yes, but they could also trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eh, I don't think this is really true. The core was gonna stay SE, but the lighter edge precip was expected by the EC and NAM to make it past AVP. That obviously isn't going to happen. well you can toss the nam...The ec runs from yesterday had that. The 0z run seems more realistic with getting it to about the carbon/monroe counties between 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 it's basically a wait and see. Don't go screaming bust and what not when things were not suppose to get going till this evening. Could things trend bad yes, but they could also trend better. storm / winter cancel ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eh, I don't think this is really true. The core was gonna stay SE, but the lighter edge precip was expected by the EC and NAM to make it past AVP. That obviously isn't going to happen. The 00z ECMWF is mainly northern stream / deformation induced precipitation later today for NE PA, not from the southern stream. The little bit it skirts them with comes this afternoon on the 00z ECMWF and the early morning stuff was the insentropic nonsense we had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 00z ECMWF is mainly northern stream / deformation induced precipitation later today for NE PA, not from the southern stream. The little bit it skirts them with comes this afternoon on the 00z ECMWF and the early morning stuff was the insentropic nonsense we had earlier. Maybe... it sure looked more like the outer area of the southern stream low to me. In any case, the NAM continues its shift eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe... it sure looked more like the outer area of the southern stream low to me. In any case, the NAM continues its shift eastward... Yeah the outer edge does get into NE PA, we agree. But anyway, yeah noticeable shift with the new NAM. The southern stream wave refusing the interact with the northern wave is the kind of thing that can send an area straight into "no big deal" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Loving the "models are busting east" talk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Loving the "models are busting east" talk.... this morning, the gfs was to far east...the low went over or just inside hse while the gfs was offshore. From that point on is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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