Chinook Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yes, it is the 4km NAM. I discovered this while browsing around the Penn State e-wall web site. It's really hidden in the web site, but potentially quite helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z NAM lowered qpf totals for c s MN, mainly a n MN heavy snow event...either the model is still that bad within the 24hr range or it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z NAM lowered qpf totals for c s MN, mainly a n MN heavy snow event...either the model is still that bad within the 24hr range or it's right. It is bad. In reality the NAM has become better since it first came out in 2006, but the globals have continued to improve much faster. We are a little pampered with guidance such as the ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC, etc. The NAM has its strong points, but it really desperately needs an overhaul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Im ready Baro, looks like the best one we have had in a while. Freezing drizzle has developed in the arrowhead this evening. Light glazing on all surfaces. I think it is looking good for you guys. You may some some 1-2" rates tomorrow with an outside shot at 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is bad. In reality the NAM has become better since it first came out in 2006, but the globals have continued to improve much faster. We are a little pampered with guidance such as the ECMWF/GFS/UKMET/CMC, etc. The NAM has its strong points, but it really desperately needs an overhaul. This is what I posted a few minutes ago on the Minnesota Forecaster site.... "I haven't looked to see what the surface observations are at this time vs what the models were showing, and that may be a critical error on my part. But based on the 09/12z Euro, the higher 15k resolution of the FIM model suite as of 09/12z and the 09/18z GEM REG model (which by the way was given major upgrade just before the winter season), I am sticking with my 6" at MSP, and in NW Hennepin county more like 8-10" The caveat that I have seen, is that the GEMREG model keeps most of the winter mix south of the metro. AS a matter of fact it stalls this system for about 6 hrs, as the center of the low gets between the metro and Eau Claire. IMO the gem regular was a big winner in the last storm that impacted the ARX county warned area around Madison, and was spot on showing no snow in NW IL, until late. If the 18z run of the GEM is correct we could see a surprise. So my forecast of 6" at MSP and 8 to 10 in NW Hennipen county is above average but not high. I agree the NAM is junk for cold season forecasting, at these latitudes it does much better with warm season storms. I believe dynamic cooling could be a huge issue with this storm when it comes to the Twin Cities metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Uhh. Supercell? Or more like a zone with a strong melting layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Uhh. Supercell? Or more like a zone with a strong melting layer. 20130210_033041_black.png I didn't check surface temps....is that cell in the warm sector??? I would assume so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I believe that is convection, which could result in 2" per hour snowfall rates at FSD if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is what I posted a few minutes ago on the Minnesota Forecaster site.... "I haven't looked to see what the surface observations are at this time vs what the models were showing, and that may be a critical error on my part. But based on the 09/12z Euro, the higher 15k resolution of the FIM model suite as of 09/12z and the 09/18z GEM REG model (which by the way was given major upgrade just before the winter season), I am sticking with my 6" at MSP, and in NW Hennepin county more like 8-10" The caveat that I have seen, is that the GEMREG model keeps most of the winter mix south of the metro. AS a matter of fact it stalls this system for about 6 hrs, as the center of the low gets between the metro and Eau Claire. IMO the gem regular was a big winner in the last storm that impacted the ARX county warned area around Madison, and was spot on showing no snow in NW IL, until late. If the 18z run of the GEM is correct we could see a surprise. So my forecast of 6" at MSP and 8 to 10 in NW Hennipen county is above average but not high. I agree the NAM is junk for cold season forecasting, at these latitudes it does much better with warm season storms. I believe dynamic cooling could be a huge issue with this storm when it comes to the Twin Cities metro. 0z RGEM continues to develope a narrow band of precip sw of the L as it nears MSP which could add to the higher totals MPX is forecasting for that area....the 0z run is a little nw with this compared to the 12z run. GFS has something similar but further se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0z RGEM continues to develope a narrow band of precip sw of the L as it nears MSP which could add to the higher totals MPX is forecasting for that area....the 0z run is a little nw with this compared to the 12z run. GFS has something similar but further se. I know this time frame is not the same as you showed, but you could back up your site with this one, showing the precip type. at the same hours. I would love to see your map with this one, for each 3hr period. Here is the link I'm using.... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 I know this time frame is not the same as you showed, but you could back up your site with this one, showing the precip type. at the same hours. I would love to see your map with this one, for each 3hr period. Here is the link I'm using.... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemreg&map=na&run=00〈=en I'm using the low resolution rgem for my maps...that link you have is the high resolution but here is my model link page, the rgem i have is for every 3hr period. http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm using the low resolution rgem for my maps...that link you have is the high resolution but here is my model link page, the rgem i have is for every 3hr period. http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model Wonderful...moved it into my top ten model pages....will have to play around with it love that it shows the north central Reg Gem, E-Wall no longer has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Prinsburg....what is your closest airport code???? If I'm up late enough I can tell you what the QPF is showing of the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Prinsburg....what is your closest airport code???? If I'm up late enough I can tell you what the QPF is showing of the Euro... KBDH or KOVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 KBDH or KOVL ok got it, they should be coming in during the next 40minutes, I just don't trust the American models with this system, it's a sad comment to be sure, but the foreign models seem to be preforming better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Just uploaded my first TrendCast (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) run for the upper plains area. A few highlighted locations were Watertown, Valentine, Chandler Field Watertown Weather Progression: Continued light snow through 10/17Z, then increasing to heavier snows from 17Z to 01Z, with snowfall rates of .5"/hr during that time. Looking at around 9" of snow possible for this region. Chandler Weather Progression: Steady light snow will begin around 11Z and increase in intensity around 18Z to 01Z, with snowfall rates of .5 to .7"/hr possible. Looking at around 8" of snow possible Huron Weather Progression: Looking at snow to begin around 09Z and increasing in intensity around 10/14Z to 11/00Z. Seeing snowfall rates of .5 to .6"/hr during this time and winds NW at 22G30 to 35Kts. Snow accumulations of 7-10" possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 ok got it, they should be coming in during the next 40minutes, I just don't trust the American models with this system, it's a sad comment to be sure, but the foreign models seem to be preforming better I have the stormvista euro maps but doesn't give me the raw qpf numbers so it'll be interesting to see what the euro shows for KOVL. Here are some numbers from the other 0z models tonight for KOVL. CMC 0.77 GFS 0.87 NAM 0.64 RGEM 0.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD1119 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..1100 PM SNOW ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W02/09/2013 M2.7 INCH BROWN SD NWS OFFICE STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. 2.5 INCHES IN ONE HOUR FROM 10PM TO 11PM CST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 .60 for the Euro at olv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 .60 for the Euro at olv Thank you much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looking on the various outputs for here in the twin cities, i have to admit, i do not know what p-type i'll be getting in the morning. the 04z rap says snow, the nam i think says snow with a risk of a sleet mix, the gfs is saying more like a sleet/frz rain mix, the canadian i think has us right on the line between liquid and snow. i hate sitting that close to changeover lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL MN...ERN SD AND FAR SE ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101246Z - 101845Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY. RATES MAY APPROACH 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW DUE TO BREEZY ELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...THE SFC LOW OVER SW NEB HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD NW IA/SRN MN...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS EWD. SNOWFALL RATES WILL FIRST INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO SW MN THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...HIGHER RATES/HEAVIER SNOW BAND SHOULD PIVOT NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. AT LEAST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL IA CONFIRM THIS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BANDS MAY RESULT IN RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY ELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/2 MILE...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looking on the various outputs for here in the twin cities, i have to admit, i do not know what p-type i'll be getting in the morning. the 04z rap says snow, the nam i think says snow with a risk of a sleet mix, the gfs is saying more like a sleet/frz rain mix, the canadian i think has us right on the line between liquid and snow. i hate sitting that close to changeover lines. 12z sounding shows a very small warm layer...depicted by the NAM yesterday. The RAP depicts that for another couple hrs before all snow across the Cities as the upper low tracks NE and heights tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 alot of sleet at first but now it's all snow here...around 3" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL MN...ERN SD AND FAR SE ND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 101246Z - 101845Z SUMMARY...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MIDDAY. RATES MAY APPROACH 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW DUE TO BREEZY ELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. DISCUSSION...THE SFC LOW OVER SW NEB HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD NW IA/SRN MN...BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS EWD. SNOWFALL RATES WILL FIRST INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO SW MN THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER...HIGHER RATES/HEAVIER SNOW BAND SHOULD PIVOT NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MN...INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. AT LEAST SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY THROUGH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS FAR N-CNTRL IA CONFIRM THIS. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SNOW BANDS MAY RESULT IN RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY ELY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1/2 MILE...CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WCB pretty easy to see on both WV/Vis this morning. Strong height falls/mid level cooling as the upper low tanks heights resulting in convective elements feeding the deformation band. Farther W across the eastern Dakotas...smooth cloud band is the inverted trof/mid level warm front which will produce most of the snow for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Deformation pivot point definitely looks to be around Fargo and S...someone in that area will jackpot with with 15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looking on the various outputs for here in the twin cities, i have to admit, i do not know what p-type i'll be getting in the morning. the 04z rap says snow, the nam i think says snow with a risk of a sleet mix, the gfs is saying more like a sleet/frz rain mix, the canadian i think has us right on the line between liquid and snow. i hate sitting that close to changeover lines. Surface obs, twitter pics, news report all show things quickly turning to snow now. Going to rip for a few hours, hope you enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 reports of 7 -8" around ABR & ne SD. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD938 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0935 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S CHELSEA 45.15N 98.74W02/10/2013 M11.0 INCH FAULK SD PUBLIC COOP REPORTS 11 INCHES OF NEW SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 couple pics i just took...whiteout out here in open country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD1031 AM CST SUN FEB 10 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..1028 AM BLIZZARD WATERTOWN 44.91N 97.17W02/10/2013 CODINGTON SD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS I-29 SHUT DOWN FROM NORTH DAKOTA BORDER TO WATERTOWN DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND ONSET OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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