Minnesota Feb 9th-11th Potential Significant Winter Storm

[Minnesota Meso]

I think the GFS is too far N too, but it is a viable solution. Canadian still looks odd with the very southern track, but will need to watch northern stream...as that can put a huge kabash on northward advancement real quickly with poorly resolved shortwaves.

 

 

Watching very closely as to how quickly the NE coastal phases, not sure that the 2ft snows in Boston will happen, as the phase seems a bit late with this model run.  Thus I'm thinking the GGEM may be correct after all.  The GFS is still a bit further west than I expected.  Waiting for the FIM to come in as it is initiated by the GFS but has a higher resolution.

 

edit: none of the Fim models moved as far south and east as I expected

[prinsburg_wx]

I think the GFS is too far N too, but it is a viable solution. Canadian still looks odd with the very southern track, but will need to watch northern stream...as that can put a huge kabash on northward advancement real quickly with poorly resolved shortwaves.

 

I haven't been a big fan of the euro since the 09 xmas storm...too many times i've seen the euro cave to the gfs. I am hoping the gfs is too far north though & the euro wins so i can gain some faith back for that model.

[blizznd]

Hi there

 

working mids tonight....  and general consensus is for gfs/euro blend with max snow band watertown up through the sisseton hills to wahpeton nd to fergus falls then toward the mn arrowhead.   

 

However must be noted still the NAM and its like models such as the SREF and various UM-Madison models on the web (such as the CRAS) all maintain a more westward soln with surface low tracking just west and north of MSP and a more broad 500 mb low and thus swings precip way west and north.    So still some uncertainity.        One of our first blizzards of the season here locally....the farther north and west solution did work the best (i.e. NAM)   so will see.....  being the time of year  and stil a bit far out would lead to best confidence in euro/gfs blend

 

mids this weekend so will see.

[prinsburg_wx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

551 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA LATE SATURDAY

NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

.A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN

ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL

SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH

MONDAY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MANKATO TO EAU CLAIRE. A WINTRY MIX

IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN

WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY SUNDAY

NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS AREA COULD RANGE FROM 5 TO

9 INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW. HOWEVER...

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND

WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THERE SHOULD BE

CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...RANGING FROM 9 TO 15 INCHES.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...STRONG WINDS ON THE

BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 MPH. THEREFORE...A BLIZZARD WATCH HAS

REPLACED THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN THESE AREAS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT

AND MONDAY.

THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRACK MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT

CONDITIONS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-082200-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0003.130210T0600Z-130211T0000Z/

/O.CON.KMPX.BZ.A.0001.130211T0000Z-130212T0000Z/

DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-

YELLOW MEDICINE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...

MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...GRANITE FALLS

551 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH

MONDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 9 TO 15 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

  SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOME HEAVY SUNDAY...THEN TAPER OFF TO SNOW

  SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN

  BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST

  WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

* OTHER IMPACTS: THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE

  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...RESULTING IN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS

  IN SOME AREAS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

[prinsburg_wx]

Hi there

 

working mids tonight....  and general consensus is for gfs/euro blend with max snow band watertown up through the sisseton hills to wahpeton nd to fergus falls then toward the mn arrowhead.   

 

However must be noted still the NAM and its like models such as the SREF and various UM-Madison models on the web (such as the CRAS) all maintain a more westward soln with surface low tracking just west and north of MSP and a more broad 500 mb low and thus swings precip way west and north.    So still some uncertainity.        One of our first blizzards of the season here locally....the farther north and west solution did work the best (i.e. NAM)   so will see.....  being the time of year  and stil a bit far out would lead to best confidence in euro/gfs blend

 

mids this weekend so will see.

 

12z NAM basically holding it's track...GFK gets hammered with 1.00 +

[skowee]

12z NAM basically holding it's track...GFK gets hammered with 1.00 +

GFK proper is way overdue for a good dumping of snow. Those who've lived there for the last several years would understand .

[ZackH]

I understand that the GFS/Euro has the more realistic solution now... and you typically see the NAM struggle until the energy gets on our side of the Rockies... but the NAM has performed consistently better than most of the other models with the past few bigger systems.  That being said, I am pessimistic, but I think there is still a chance the NAM could verify even if its a small chance.  It seems to have struggled more with the Clippers, but its done pretty well with the Colorado lows.  I'm interested to see how this evolves one way or the other.  There is not a ton of deep cold air on the back side of this storm and that could be one reason for the NW trend in the regional models.  Maybe I'm a bit biased because I want to see a big snow and I'm actually here in GFK... but I at least see some potential.

[baroclinic_instability]

I understand that the GFS/Euro has the more realistic solution now... and you typically see the NAM struggle until the energy gets on our side of the Rockies... but the NAM has performed consistently better than most of the other models with the past few bigger systems.  That being said, I am pessimistic, but I think there is still a chance the NAM could verify even if its a small chance.  It seems to have struggled more with the Clippers, but its done pretty well with the Colorado lows.  I'm interested to see how this evolves one way or the other.  There is not a ton of deep cold air on the back side of this storm and that could be one reason for the NW trend in the regional models.  Maybe I'm a bit biased because I want to see a big snow and I'm actually here in GFK... but I at least see some potential.

I totally understand, but you are going to learn with time after living in GFK that it takes a lot of right things to make an event. If something can go wrong, it will. That is my weather pessimism talking. That said, my professional side says the NAM is junk, and there is quite a bit of research out there(including someone from our own office here) that point towards the importance of vertical resolution in numerical models w.r.t. terrain....which fits what I have seen from seemingly hundreds of leeside ejections). Personally living in GFK and being from MN...I have seen so many possible threats turn into junk fast as the ejecting low either stalls or dives south owing to either PV conservation and/or poorly modeled leeside trough enhancement of the moisture field/advective processes, etc. which in turn effect synoptic scale development. Won't even delve into the effects of moist convection in this setup...which will both influence synoptic development as well as moisture fields. Personally...in this setup, if a southern solution exists, it is likely correct, especially if it has more vertical levels like the ECMWF/RGEM/GFS ( see the storm mentioned by Skowee...Feb 28th-29th...in some ways quite similar). GFK truly is a weatherhole...but at the same time a lot of "odd" occurrences will surprise you. I think the GFK NWS Blizzard Watch is more than warranted even if the southern tracks verify. That said, I am rooting for you folks up there. Perhaps my own pessimism for GFK storms is biasing me as well. 

[baroclinic_instability]

For the fun of it...some random images from Feb 28th-29th, 2012. Best plains event all winter.

 

[prinsburg_wx]

For the fun of it...some random images from Feb 28th-29th, 2012. Best plains event all winter.

 

Yep, recieved 6" from that storm...winter sucked before & after that event.

[ZackH]

I totally understand, but you are going to learn with time after living in GFK that it takes a lot of right things to make an event. If something can go wrong, it will. That is my weather pessimism talking. That said, my professional side says the NAM is junk, and there is quite a bit of research out there(including someone from our own office here) that point towards the importance of vertical resolution in numerical models w.r.t. terrain....which fits what I have seen from seemingly hundreds of leeside ejections). Personally living in GFK and being from MN...I have seen so many possible threats turn into junk fast as the ejecting low either stalls or dives south owing to either PV conservation and/or poorly modeled leeside trough enhancement of the moisture field/advective processes, etc. which in turn effect synoptic scale development. Won't even delve into the effects of moist convection in this setup...which will both influence synoptic development as well as moisture fields. Personally...in this setup, if a southern solution exists, it is likely correct, especially if it has more vertical levels like the ECMWF/RGEM/GFS ( see the storm mentioned by Skowee...Feb 28th-29th...in some ways quite similar). GFK truly is a weatherhole...but at the same time a lot of "odd" occurrences will surprise you. I think the GFK NWS Blizzard Watch is more than warranted even if the southern tracks verify. That said, I am rooting for you folks up there. Perhaps my own pessimism for GFK storms is biasing me as well. 

 

I completely understand what you're saying and it does make sense.  I'm not arguing with you as much as I'm trying to be the devil's advocate.  I agree, a model with more vertical layers would seemingly have to be better.  I'm surprised they have not implemented more vertical levels with the regional models (computing power/time issues?).  I trust your experience here for sure... but this is the best thing we've had to follow in some time.  I agree that the Blizzard Watch is warranted... even an inch of fresh snow here will be a visibility nightmare with the forecast winds.

[prinsburg_wx]

LBF mentions possible thunder snow...

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
356 PM CST FRI FEB 8 2013

IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEADING TO DECENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO NWRN KS SATURDAY EVENING...LEAD SHOWERS AND
EVEN AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER...I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF SOME GRAUPEL OR PEA SIZED HAIL OCCURS...GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING
LEVELS. ALSO...SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY EXTENDS NORTH INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY FACILITATE POSSIBLE
THUNDER SNOW.

[baroclinic_instability]

This is going to be a fun one to watch develop. In fact, this is the best leeside CO Low since last years event. As expected, LBF may get crushed and I am gone.

[blizznd]

Working mids ....    leaving watches up  as dont like to issue warnings 24 hours before the main event.... esp in this case as stil some model differences in how far west main snow band will get.    Bet our dayshift may upgrade midday or so after 12z runs are in.      Thing about GF is we have had about 4 inches of fluff lately which is just waiting to blow....so if we can get a good northerly wind to 30-35 mph it will blow.     Right snow in general agreement with HPC and blended model data in showing 4-5 inch line Roseau to Grand Forks to near Jamestown       Fargo in for it  and that region from Sisseton to Fergus Falls-Detroit Lakes look to be in the heaviest snow.   

 

Talking about Grand Forks snow  who can forget the Christmas storm (I think in 2009)  with 2 ft and drifts so high couldnt go out in our backyard til late March.     And then the 13 inches in mid October 2001.    

[prinsburg_wx]

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...

.A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE LOST TO RAIN AT THIS TIME ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL
FALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL
BE NORTHWEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO LITTLE FALLS LINE. SOUTH AND
EAST OF THIS LINE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN BACK TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...ALONG WITH A TENTH TO 2
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE.

SUNDAY EVENING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE
WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...
MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...GRANITE FALLS
402 AM CST SAT FEB 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...
...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 8 TO 12 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOME HEAVY ON
  SUNDAY...THEN TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
  THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30
  MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH.

* MAIN IMPACTS: HEAVY WET SNOW WILL CAUSE POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS
  ON SUNDAY...AND THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
  BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...RESULTING IN WHITE OUT CONDITIONS IN
  SOME AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

 

[baroclinic_instability]

A couple thoughts this morning. Models are continuing to make southward shifts with the ejecting CO low, and the northern stream there are a couple of waves which may prove annoying for those on the northern border. RAP and GFS dprog/dt depict that wave coming down a bit faster...which will enhance stretching deformation but also the sharpness of the precip shield along the northern edge. I do truly believe, like most GFK events, there is going to be an incredibly tight northern edge to the precip shield.

 

Convective enhancement is a legit consideration here...similar to Feb 28-29th where the low level cyclone tightens up much faster than progged due to moist latent heat release near the center of the low level PV anomaly. Moisture return is impressive for early Feb, so latent energy processes will be key. 

 

 

[prinsburg_wx]

A couple thoughts this morning. Models are continuing to make southward shifts with the ejecting CO low, and the northern stream there are a couple of waves which may prove annoying for those on the northern border. RAP and GFS dprog/dt depict that wave coming down a bit faster...which will enhance stretching deformation but also the sharpness of the precip shield along the northern edge. I do truly believe, like most GFK events, there is going to be an incredibly tight northern edge to the precip shield.

 

Convective enhancement is a legit consideration here...similar to Feb 28-29th where the low level cyclone tightens up much faster than progged due to moist latent heat release near the center of the low level PV anomaly. Moisture return is impressive for early Feb, so latent energy processes will be key. 

 

MPX mentions possible thunder snow near the mn river with up to 2" per hour rates...that scenario still possible after looking at the 12z runs?

[baroclinic_instability]

MPX mentions possible thunder snow near the mn river with up to 2" per hour rates...that scenario still possible after looking at the 12z runs?

I think it is going to be a mess, with the shot for thundersleet and thundersnow as the PV core punches through. Mid level moisture return is impressive. 12z RGEM also took a nosedive S.

[mnweather]

Some of the 12Z RGEM precip rates are pretty extreme.

[baroclinic_instability]

Working mids ....    leaving watches up  as dont like to issue warnings 24 hours before the main event.... esp in this case as stil some model differences in how far west main snow band will get.    Bet our dayshift may upgrade midday or so after 12z runs are in.      Thing about GF is we have had about 4 inches of fluff lately which is just waiting to blow....so if we can get a good northerly wind to 30-35 mph it will blow.     Right snow in general agreement with HPC and blended model data in showing 4-5 inch line Roseau to Grand Forks to near Jamestown       Fargo in for it  and that region from Sisseton to Fergus Falls-Detroit Lakes look to be in the heaviest snow.   

 

Talking about Grand Forks snow  who can forget the Christmas storm (I think in 2009)  with 2 ft and drifts so high couldnt go out in our backyard til late March.     And then the 13 inches in mid October 2001.    

Looks like a classic ND winter event. A couple inches of nice light fluff with persistent northerly winds down the RRV, looks good for some good blowing and drifting.

[prinsburg_wx]

precip starting to break out in s nebraska & moving north...

[prinsburg_wx]

Minneapolis area has been upgraded to a warning...4-8" possible.

[ZackH]

Even the NAM migrating south now, although it still has what seems to be pretty unrealistic snowfall totals in the GFK area.  This will be a close one with a very tight gradient.  50 miles here or there track wise will tell the tale for GFK... I'm thinking 2-4 inches with a lot of blowing snow.  Of course depending on the track, it could also be a dusting or 6-8... Therefore, I feel pretty safe with a 2-4 call.

[baroclinic_instability]

Even the NAM migrating south now, although it still has what seems to be pretty unrealistic snowfall totals in the GFK area.  This will be a close one with a very tight gradient.  50 miles here or there track wise will tell the tale for GFK... I'm thinking 2-4 inches with a lot of blowing snow.  Of course depending on the track, it could also be a dusting or 6-8... Therefore, I feel pretty safe with a 2-4 call.

I do think 1-3" of light snow is probably a good bet. I truly see no way the NAM has any shot at verifying, but I have seen weirder things happen. I did notice the latest RAP is also trying to aggressively send precip north along the mid level front/inverted trof axis as the lead wave pushing through KS now tracks N. It is all going to be heavily dependent on when the secondary deformation band forms farther S and shuts off the precip banding over northern ND. ECMWF is much more aggressive with the secondary. NAM is definitely sticking to its guns. I think it is wrong obviously, but it is definitely something worth watching.

[baroclinic_instability]

Minneapolis area has been upgraded to a warning...4-8" possible.

I am skeptical. A lot of the initial precip will be a mess of rain/sleet then a late switch to wet snow. Farther W will do better, but not sure 4-8". We will see, it does look messy.

[baroclinic_instability]

Minneapolis area has been upgraded to a warning...4-8" possible.

You are in a good spot. 6 to 9 inches is a possibility. When that upper PV punches through...may get a rumble of thunder. 

[Chinook]

This is a fun image if you live in the Dakotas

 

 

 

 

[mnweather]

^What model is that?   4km NAM?

[baroclinic_instability]

^What model is that?   4km NAM?

Looks like it. Either way, you guys up there near Duluth are primed for a big dump tomorrow. 

[mnweather]

Im ready Baro, looks like the best one we have had in a while.  Freezing drizzle has developed in the arrowhead this evening.  Light glazing on all surfaces.