Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nam warm thru hr45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nam warm thru hr45 Very dry for the area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM is wayyy slower with the Southern stream. Hour 48 its still down by Va capes... 18z GFS had it east of long beach island.... NAm is trying, just not getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nam crushing NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The NAM has the low wobble east due to convection. Only light precipitation Friday for our area, almost like a clear zone between a tropical system and approaching front. Storm still hits southeast NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM is wayyy slower with the Southern stream. Hour 48 its still down by Va capes... 18z GFS had it east of long beach island.... NAm is trying, just not getting there. Any verdict on how the NAM has been doing in this time range recently. Not that we have had any big storms though to compare. It can't be all that bad now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Any verdict on how the NAM has been doing in this time range recently. Not that we have had any big storms though to compare. It can't be all that bad now.... yea, pos. The mets and everyone else say to not even look at it post 24 hrs maybe 12 hrs...but people still get worked up over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 @ this point, ride the euro/GFS and their ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 All of the analogs on CIPS etc. are pretty bad. I don't like the comparisons to 1997 and 2005, even if the conditions will be similar in NE. This one starts completely as a southern stream s/w and then we wait for the northern s/w to "catch" the fkr. We sit in a terrible area for confidence forecasting right now but the NWP consensus today was great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This one starts completely as a southern stream s/w and then we wait for the northern s/w to "catch" the fkr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 well the 0z runs are coming in stellar........ nam-Rgem- GFS looking east with best part of storm from PHL-NYC... Good Luck mods :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gfs bringing cold down at hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 snow into phl at hr54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 850 low further east thus colder. Only problem is surface low further east as well taking most heavy precip off shore for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS a little slower to phase. Colder but drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Still, better for us, NE folks gonna be upset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 less of a crushing for NE, ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sounds like a good trend for us. Is there any chance the watch zones get extended into Berks or lower portions of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd estimate about 0.15" frozen at PHL on the GFS, double that at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS while not the beast of the east in the area. It looks as areas will see some snow. More north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow here is mainly when northern trough swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sounds like a good trend for us. Is there any chance the watch zones get extended into Berks or lower portions of the area? Colder doesn't matter if the precip mainly falls east of you. This looks like maybe 2-4" in RDG on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Colder doesn't matter if the precip mainly falls east of you. This looks like maybe 2-4" in RDG on the GFS. Thanks! That's what I've been seeing most of the day. Seems like advisory type storm here in that case. Hope areas north east cash in good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NOUS42 KWNO 070259ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0256Z THU FEB 07 2013THE 00Z GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. IN ADDITION TO GOOD NORTHAMERICAN RAOB COVERAGE...10 GULF OF MEXICO DROPSONDES AND 13FLIGHT LEVEL REPORTS WERE AVAILABLE FOR MODEL INGEST COURTESY OFA USAF RESERVE WINTER STORM RECONNAISSANCE MISSION.HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEPTranslation: All of tonight's 0z's have had dropsonde data and full sampling... and are well east. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 No talk on the 00z Euro?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks good like 4-7" in Philly.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not quite as snowy as last night but certainly an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not quite as snowy as last night but certainly an improvement What does it look like for ABE region Ray? Thank you in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not quite as snowy as last night but certainly an improvement Pretty good run for Philly folks, probably near 1" qpf in what looks like to be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Pretty good run for Philly folks, probably near 1" qpf in what looks like to be all snow thanks for giving some late night thoughts...not many on here.. had to jump over to NE and NYC for some excitement!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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