famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I find it interesting the RPM model snow totals the media is showing. Lots could go wrong that! Anyhow, the 18z GFS is rather impressive with the deformation band/wrap around precipitation for our area. The lift ramps up fairly quickly and becomes increasingly deeper in the snow growth zone as the colder air moves in, especially in portions of eastern PA and northern NJ as it pivots eastward. If this were to verify, 2 inches per hour snowfall rates I think would be doable during the height of the storm. My brother just texted me about the RPM He asked "Hey ray, what's the RPM model and why is it so awesome?" My reply, "Its not awesome, they're using it for ratings". He replied back, "O... that sucks! I was loving it! So that doesn't even have a possibility of happening?" My response, "No chance in hell." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Looks like some good convective activity firing up in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I find it interesting the RPM model snow totals the media is showing. Lots could go wrong that! Anyhow, the 18z GFS is rather impressive with the deformation band/wrap around precipitation for our area. The lift ramps up fairly quickly and becomes increasingly deeper in the snow growth zone as the colder air moves in, especially in portions of eastern PA and northern NJ as it pivots eastward. If this were to verify, 2 inches per hour snowfall rates I think would be doable during the height of the storm. BTW, welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BTW, if you're wondering about accumulation maps....facebook.com/phillywx (I posted the 18z). I won't do it often but I will throw a bone or two on there occasionally. Thanks, just added your page on my account. Nice job on the weather page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gorse! Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Definitely keep aware of some short range changes as far as the two shortwaves interacting earlier or later. By now you don't need me to tell you how huge of an impact the timing of phasing will have on the PHL-NYC corridor. So with these more subtle aspects in mind, there is still definitely wiggle room in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My brother just texted me about the RPM He asked "Hey ray, what's the RPM model and why is it so awesome?" My reply, "Its not awesome, they're using it for ratings". He replied back, "O... that sucks! I was loving it! So that doesn't even have a possibility of happening?" My response, "No chance in hell." LOL. Nice response by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gorse! Welcome back! BTW, welcome back! Thanks! I figured I was away long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks! I figured I was away long enough. Nice to have you back mike. Your thoughts are highly appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks! I figured I was away long enough. too long brother! / and nice comment to come back to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks for posting Mike, you have been missed. Stick around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks everyone! I still have a lot going on, but will try to post when I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My hit-n-run post for the night: This one be loooow confidence until we can get some temp issues better resolved. Not that far off of the 18z GFS idea, though I'm a bit more apprehensive about that back-end stuff heading into eastern PA and central/southern NJ, i.e. this sub-forum Also, welcome back MGorse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Welcome back Mike!! Thanks! I figured I was away long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes - welcome back Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Welcome back Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good to see you back,Mike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Fantastic news to see MGorse is back posting again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is for sure a tough forecast....this is when the professionals earn their money! The latest Wxsim for NW Chesco off 18z data shows a mainly rain event but changing to snow late on Friday evening with around 4" of snow accumulating before ending. My personal prediction is this will be the biggest snowfall of the season ( biggest to date was the 4.5" in November) for the NW Philly burbs....well that is until the big Valentines Day storm (give or take a day) that will have us all shoveling out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 My hit-n-run post for the night: 20130207-08_MAsnowInitial.png This one be loooow confidence until we can get some temp issues better resolved. Not that far off of the 18z GFS idea, though I'm a bit more apprehensive about that back-end stuff heading into eastern PA and central/southern NJ, i.e. this sub-forum Also, welcome back MGorse! Thanks! I think your map looks pretty good given the model guidance to this point. I think the interesting aspect will be the end of the storm, and just how much wrap around occurs especially down to the Philly metro. Some of the guidance is fairly rocking with the idea of a decent shot of snow with that, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Like the 18z RGEM which was mentioned earlier. Slowed down and dug the northern stream wave compared to its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How bout MAR 31 / APR 1 1997 - Rain changed to hvy snow around mid-day, ended up with 10-12" locally, don't recall any snow in the forecast that day - Boston ended up getting annihilated, think the key there was a stall south of L.I. - we cashed in big time on wrap around Yep...we got 8" out of that one. Very narrow band of snow and we were under it. So weird to see so much snow and so much daylight (longer days). And..yes, the memorable 2001 storms (there were a couple like that for us). And....Feb 19, 1972....Not a lot of snow, but a heavy rain, a lull, then about 4" of snow on the backend (in NE Philly at the time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21z srefs are wetter again with the 1.25 qpf about to the river and .75 all the way back to mdt...they also cooled off and suggest at least .25-.3 frozen for philly metro, more to the north and east obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mklojay Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just started reading this site in mid December to get a grasp on winter weather patterns in the northeast. It's great to see the facts and the science behind it. Thanks to you all who contribute, I have learned so much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Great to see mike back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21 SREFS have .30 frozen back to Philly now?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21 SREFS have .30 frozen back to Philly now?? from what i can see yes, though its pretty small map. You will get a better view once they come out on e wall. they flip around hr 54 give or take with about 1 qpf. Then they finish with about 1.25...so its about .2-.3. More to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 21 SREFS have .30 frozen back to Philly now?? One member has 30 inches in philly, removing that member takes the mean down to 2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 One member has 30 inches in philly, removing that member takes the mean down to 2 inches of snow. that has to be an arw one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that has to be an arw one? member arp3. Here is a link that gives a graphical breakdown of the SREF. or just google spc sref and click on plumes, it does not work in internet explorer. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130206&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=PHL&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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