tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 sv snow map has 4-8 down to phl 8-12 abe to pocs. ne new jersey foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 There a chance for dynamic cooling that the models aren't showing? :graspingatstraws: Good question. Tom, anyone....should we really be looking at temp profiles at this point when a ccb like the GFS is showing this time of year usually means heavy snow? seem like the transfer happens early enough for us, but 850s look warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 sv snow map has 4-8 down to phl 8-12 abe to pocs. ne new jersey foot plus In the NYC forum they are saying that under the CCB band, it may be snowing sooner than the GFS shows. What are your thoughts, Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Good question. Tom, anyone....should we really be looking at temp profiles at this point when a ccb like the GFS is showing this time of year usually means heavy snow? seem like the transfer happens early enough for us, but 850s look warm. The sooner that ccb gets going the faster we would switch. What you saw on the euro the storm was later in the phase and a little further east which caused us to miss that and we stayed warm. You need the dynamics for the storm to cool the column. If you don't get the dynamics you will waste precip and will have to rely on the backend of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wishcasting imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 In the NYC forum they are saying that under the CCB band, it may be snowing sooner than the GFS shows. What are your thoughts, Tom? they get on the ccb, we don't, If we did then, yes that is very possible. Remember though, that primary holds on for long so its going to warm up. Need a faster phase, to drag the cold air down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wishcasting imo don't make me whip out the rpm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I mean, it's not like the model temp profiles aren't responding to the massive frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 they get on the ccb, we don't If we did, then, yes that is very possible. Yes, looks like just Jersey gets the brunt this run. Hoping for more CCB action because you never know with back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I mean, it's not like the model temp profiles aren't responding to the massive frontogenesis NYC is tough, they have over an inch QPF 18Z-0Z which slowly drills the temp profile down to one of snow, but man that's a lot of wasted water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I mean, it's not like the model temp profiles aren't responding to the massive frontogenesis I know you aren't a huge analog past storm guy. But this storm comes to mind for me. Philly started as rain as was predicted to be mainly rain with possibly a switch over at the end. We got into the ccb and the dynamics took over and pasted the region with heavy wet slop (your favorite)... Not saying that happens, but when that frontogenesis and what not goes to town places that get into that ccb are gonna rip... end result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know you aren't a huge analog past storm guy. But this storm comes to mind for me. Philly started as rain as was predicted to be mainly rain with possibly a switch over at the end. We got into the ccb and the dynamics took over and pasted the region with heavy wet slop (your favorite)... Not saying that happens, but when that frontogenesis and what not goes to town places that get into that ccb are gonna rip... end result Any chance back my way, or is this strictly Delaware River east and north of there deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know you aren't a huge analog past storm guy. But this storm comes to mind for me. Philly started as rain as was predicted to be mainly rain with possibly a switch over at the end. We got into the ccb and the dynamics took over and pasted the region with heavy wet slop (your favorite)... Not saying that happens, but when that frontogenesis and what not goes to town places that get into that ccb are gonna rip... end result Loving that 9-12" dot right over our hood Tombo haha. Can easily see this being where the city gets a couple inches and just NW gets slammed while cold air holds on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 sv snow map has 4-8 down to phl 8-12 abe to pocs. ne new jersey foot plus can you please post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Any chance back my way, or is this strictly Delaware River east and north of there? youshould see some snow, but the higher amounts will be eat obviously. You should do better than philly imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 can you please post? I can't post those images because its from a paid source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Loving that 9-12" dot right over our hood Tombo haha. Can easily see this being where the city gets a couple inches and just NW gets slammed while cold air holds on. well everyone will flip to rain from abe south, maybe even them. The question is how fast to do we flip back. That's where you would do good with the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Those worrying about the thermal profiles, the GFS "catches" the transition at 850 pretty accurately in the heavier CCB at hour 54. May not have it perfect but it could be a heavy snow, rain, snow type of drive from east to west across NJ as the heaviest band changes over while colder air pushes in from the west, leaving a screw zone in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z RGEM is amped, 991 mb off VA, which is what we need down in this area to pull the cold in quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I know you aren't a huge analog past storm guy. But this storm comes to mind for me. Philly started as rain as was predicted to be mainly rain with possibly a switch over at the end. We got into the ccb and the dynamics took over and pasted the region with heavy wet slop (your favorite)... Not saying that happens, but when that frontogenesis and what not goes to town places that get into that ccb are gonna rip... end result How bout MAR 31 / APR 1 1997 - Rain changed to hvy snow around mid-day, ended up with 10-12" locally, don't recall any snow in the forecast that day - Boston ended up getting annihilated, think the key there was a stall south of L.I. - we cashed in big time on wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 BTW, if you're wondering about accumulation maps....facebook.com/phillywx (I posted the 18z). I won't do it often but I will throw a bone or two on there occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How bout MAR 31 / APR 1 1997 - Rain changed to hvy snow around mid-day, ended up with 10-12" locally, don't recall any snow in the forecast that day - Boston ended up getting annihilated, think the key there was a stall south of L.I. - we cashed in big time on wrap around Yeah that storm came to mind. I don't have a PHI-area wide map but an NJ map is on my site... http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1997/31-Mar-97.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I hear you Tom, I'm just saying the model is handling it accurately. Models in 2013 >> models in 2001. Those type of errors just don't happen anymore since the 2010 radiation upgrade. Now, the only things you really have to worry about are too much/not enough convective feedback affecting the deformation band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I hear you Tom, I'm just saying the model is handling it accurately. Models in 2013 >> models in 2001 OOoo i agree, i wasn't debating that. I was just saying whoever gets under that ccb, it will get wild and the snow will pile up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 OOoo i agree, i wasn't debating that. I was just saying whoever gets under that ccb, it will get wild and the snow will pile up fast. Definitely agree. I just don't think that the timing is "wrong" on the gfs. When the def band sets up, the thermal profile will respond appropriately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Definitely agree. I just don't think that the timing is "wrong" on the gfs. When the def band sets up, the thermal profile will respond appropriately what did the euro ens look like? It's hard to tell off the 24hr increments. Did they match the op or were they better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Same. Won't be much difference any more at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Same. Won't be much difference any more at this range Forky still hopes for a fluke last minute ramp up, but it seems like all the pieces are onshore right now and the globals are fairly close now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Same. Won't be much difference any more at this range Looked like last night's 00z OP run, perhaps a tad west and cold/stronger like that, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I find it interesting the RPM model snow totals the media is showing. Lots could go wrong that! Anyhow, the 18z GFS is rather impressive with the deformation band/wrap around precipitation for our area. The lift ramps up fairly quickly and becomes increasingly deeper in the snow growth zone as the colder air moves in, especially in portions of eastern PA and northern NJ as it pivots eastward. If this were to verify, 2 inches per hour snowfall rates I think would be doable during the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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