phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 We need to stop with this garbage RPM model Can we say the same for the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just looked at the EPS means as well... and earthlight is 100% correct with that statement.Regardless of the west shift a tick and stronger/colder, it still doesn't support latest RPM model craziness of 2 feet of snow Lehigh Valley and points NE... but close to a foot, sure. There is a sharp gradient on the ensembles to the west pretty dramatically. Usually the RPM follows other mesoscale models at this range and not sure what it is doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can we say the same for the NAM? Do you know why most local TV stations use the RPM model when it is so bad?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 LOL - not even a tenth of an inch precip for philly this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm with Adam...people really need to take the RPM out of their vocabulary...Janice Huff or whatever clown decided to put that on tv should be ashamed of themselves..a pure ratings grabber attempt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm with Adam...people really need to take the RPM out of their vocabulary...Janice Huff or whatever clown decided to put that on tv should be ashamed of themselves..a pure ratings grabber attempt The biggest TV station in Baltimore uses it with every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 whatever clown decided to put that on tv should be ashamed of themselves +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Do you know why most local TV stations use the RPM model when it is so bad?. Because it is pretty accurate within 48 hours, and it goes bonkers in the mid-range which gets the s all excited and boosts ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I am now under a Winter Storm Watch for 5-10" of snow possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST LATE THURSDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR EAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-062-071000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.130208T1800Z-130209T1200Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE- NORTHAMPTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK... TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON 350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE POCONOS. * TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING, THEN IT SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SLEET AND RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'm with Adam...people really need to take the RPM out of their vocabulary...Janice Huff or whatever clown decided to put that on tv should be ashamed of themselves..a pure ratings grabber attempt It's February...s w e e p s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 4 pm briefing update - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Very similar to earlier package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That is correct. We are in the middle of ratings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Can we say the same for the NAM? At this time frame yes. Tomorrow maybe we can kinda look at it and say "maybe". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 High res NAM does not agree with the op regarding QPF. A good bit more moisture with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 any reason why Mt Holly is so bullish with the 5-10 call with the Euro cutting back over Central Jersey today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Still 2-4" for the city? Wow I'll definitely take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Because it is pretty accurate within 48 hours, and it goes bonkers in the mid-range which gets the s all excited and boosts ratings.I'd say 24 hours, but yeah basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Good first forecast from Mt Holly. I'd be really worried if I liked snow and lived south of the 4" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 There is still potential we go from crappy mixing / rain to a full-fledged comma head-induced snowfall with near blizzard conditions, even into PHL. The most likely areas of course have been highlighted perfectly by Mt Holly. I have to run now but I'm looking forward to the 00z suite. Let the convection roar across the Gulf / Southeast States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RGEM looks good (from NYC thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Good luck to you guys. As my home base I'll live vicariously through Philly obs. Unfortunately this isn't anything for us to look at (we'll get some rain as the northern stream wave moves basically overhead). I'll hope next week we can get a Miller A setup for those to the south who haven't been targeted yet this year. I still think there's a chance this organizes a bit earlier and Philly gets in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Precarious spot for BOS to be in the bullseye right now...a lot can still go wrong for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 45 on the GFS My guessis later panels COULD show quite a bit of snow as the transfer has already tjken place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 UGH wasted heavy precip as 850s too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Precarious spot for BOS to be in the bullseye right now...a lot can still go wrong for them.What on earth are you talking about? I'd rather be in Boston than anywhere else right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the 18z gfs is a nice improvement. Transfer occurs a good bit sooner, thus more snow on the back end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 probably a few inches of snow into the city before the end of the event per the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 UGH wasted heavy precip as 850s too warm There a chance for dynamic cooling that the models aren't showing? :graspingatstraws: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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