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FORECAST DISCUSSION: "The Storm They Couldn't Punt" 2/7-2/9


HM

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All models agree that between 18z-21z, the northward motion of the southern stream s/w ends and the kick east happens. The initial "repelling" is common before a partial phase. It doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot for Boston but this is why major snowfall will not happen NYC and SW.

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^^^ whew. Thats disheartnening

It was never really something you thought would happen anyway, so don't let it take you down. Things to look forward to are the frontogen bands. There is a very strong signal in the mid levels for positive frontogen 3z-9z from NE PA / NY down into SE PA / C NJ. Also, we have a saturated CSI layer, per 12z NAM, during the first portion of the night when wair air advection and LLJ is present (mainly before 4z). The snow accumulations are going to be funny with north to south based maximums where these bands develop and drift southward.

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HM...does it hit the BM or go E versus NE/ENE?

The whole benchmark for storm tracks thing really broad-brushes what matters, which is: how did it get to the BM, north or south of BM? For DE-NJ-NYC, the low decides to move ENE around 21z and probably passes very close to BM.

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