tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the srefs ticked drier obviously, but they still look like at least .25 on the backend for the region from phl on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the srefs ticked drier obviously, but they still look like at least .25 on the backend for the region from phl on north Hopefully the ratios will be decent on back side. I just hate relying on backlash snows for our area. I would gladly take my 6 inches and run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know it is nowcasting time, but new SREF's don't look as wet as previous run. it makes sense, sense the nam backed off. They were a little to wet to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 @ sp, thanks for the compliment. No where near ready for that place. Just some things i've learned from reading the boards here and what to look for. These pro forecasters/ skilled ams/ and red taggers ( and maybe even some of those mods) are an invaluable asset to this board. While I agree of course....nothing wrong for some props. Believe as one of the original geeks....this whole experience has been incredible in terms of learning. I was actually trying to figure out how many years it has been....must be like 12 or more... I like the MT Holly forum....otherwise known as the PHL region. Great crew both tagged and weenies like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And the NAM shifts east again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah no crazy precip on nam. looks like flip around 12hr for cenrtal bucks, 15hr for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, I'm a little nervous about these changeover times given the mess that NYC's forecast has been this morning. But the NAM is good for 2-3" in Philly, 4-6" at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised if Mt. Holly drops totals throughout the CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 out by 27hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I cant view at work, what would the totals be at ABE? many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, I'm a little nervous about these changeover times given the mess that NYC's forecast has been this morning. But the NAM is good for 2-3" in Philly, 4-6" at TTN. which is exactly on mt hollys snowfall map which is a great call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I cant view at work, what would the totals be at ABE? many thanks.eyeballing it, .26-.50 line straddles you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 big winds later. glad i got gas for generator in-case of power outage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 which is exactly on mt hollys snowfall map which is a great call. Yeah, if the GFS doesn't also shift east then their forecast is great. The last GFS was a bit less snowy than that I think, though, so the GFS will need to trend toward the NAM. If it also trends east then numbers might not work. I'm nervous that the NAM is now at the bottom of my range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM for ABE has 0.49", but that includes everything since 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thank you very much guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 eyeballing it, .26-.50 line straddles you guys from what i can see on the high res.. looks like around .4 for abe... about .3 for phl... around .25-.3 for ptw....4-..45 ukt and dyl...ttn .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAM has finally gotten a clue. Both the NAM and GFS indicate the potential for "banding" starting in the western and northwestern suburbs toward/around 00z and working eastward. The 6z GFS / 12z NAM soundings were even okay into PHL but cloud-top temps weren't as ideal and the SGZ wasn't as favorable. Best omega / moist SGZ gets into NW suburbs - TTN line points north just after 00z through 8-11z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you want a rough estimate of possible snow amounts on NAM region-wide, just take the 12 hr accumulated precip at 12z SAT and that should be in the ballpark (for those of you at work, like me, that want a quick idea). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_024_precip_p12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you want a rough estimate of possible snow amounts on NAM region-wide, just take the 12 hr accumulated precip at 12z SAT and that should be in the ballpark (for those of you at work, like me, that want a quick idea). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/12/nam_namer_024_precip_p12.gif yup thats what i did. Here is a higher res shot, though you may need a magnifying glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hate to start to ratios talk, but for people closer to EPA/poconos region, they should be a little higher as a good percentage of the precip is from when the northern stream phases. Not talking 20:1 or anything. (Wish casting 8-12" for camelback privately) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hate to start to ratios talk, but for people closer to EPA/poconos region, they should be a little higher as a good percentage of the precip is from when the northern stream phases. Not talking 20:1 or anything. (Wish casting 8-12" for camelback privately) you should do at least 15:1 up there i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you should do at least 15:1 up there i would think I'd be happy with 6" up there lol. ( expecting some type of GF joke volleyed back here...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 SREF guidance was basically 10-15:1 area wide 00z-12z SAT. It looks like the Poconos 12-18:1 are doable but the most subtle things can ruin the ability for snowflakes to branch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yup thats what i did. Here is a higher res shot, though you may need a magnifying glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sref plumes are still good, not sure if that is saying much... ilg is around 3.8 ttn is 9.4 ptw 6.7 abe 7.5 pne 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sref plumes are still good, not sure if that is saying much... ilg is around 3.8 ttn is 9.4 ptw 6.7 abe 7.5 pne 7.3 Best cluster around TTN is more like 6-7. I can live with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3.8 in ILG and what about PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Best cluster around TTN is more like 6-7. I can live with that Your parents** can live with that :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Your parents** can live with that :-) Well, I can live with having missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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