famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I keep seeing pressure falls in the northern energy. If that holds, the whole game changes, and this gets more interesting for points south. I'm no model hugger. They are only as good as the information they are fed. My point is, this is such a complicated "Rube Goldberg" type storm with a million convoluted moving pieces, the end result will never reflect what was modeled. We watch the model change every six hours. Doesn't someone realize that is exactly how it is initialized, NOT its prediction? How many model runs to date? Our good friends at NOAA in Mt. Holly, are calling this based on what they are seeing, a nowcast, with current real-time information. Yes, and here's their just updated forecast: (note, my 5-10 for TTN is actually a tad on the high side based on this map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 In any event, the warm front/coastal front appears to be setting up 75-100 off the coast of Jersey. Looking back at the Ohio Valley, the cold front is racing east, while the warm front has been moving slower. Looks like a classic sign of vertical stacking, so by day break the rapid intensification should begin. By then it should be off the NE coast of N.C. I'm sold on those dynamics, just not the eventual boundaries of what the models forecasted. By the way, talk about cyclogenesis and rapid intensification, the thermal profile of the water this storm will traverse is incredible. Time will tell. By the way, look at the thermal profile of the water this storm will traverse. If that verifies, KABOOM. I see your point, but feel this is just the model cha cha in the "end game" Time will tell....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Good night from South Philly. May all those who seek snow, find it. Let those who encounter it's hazards and disasters, avoid them. WE will learn much from this storm before it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Better not look at the 6Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The gradient with this storm is going to be insane....around here there will be some pretty massive weepings and gnashing of teeth. Keep your expectations low and disregard the NAM...and be pleasantly surprised if by chance it ended up being the blind squirrel. I've been dealing with tight gradients for the past few major snowstorms, so this is nothing new to me. Hopes high, but expectations low is the name of the game lately if you live a considerable distance from the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Better not look at the 6Z GFS... I did...non issue for me because the GFS hasn't been very robust IMBY with this storm. for NYC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If i lived in SE PA- Eastern pa, i'd be pretty concerned right now... ( moreso in the southern half of the areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If i lived in SE PA- Eastern pa, i'd be pretty concerned right now... ( moreso in the southern half of the areas) Was there ever a reason to not be concerned at least here in se pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gefs are wetter then op. .75+ back to del river. It's pretty robust on wraparound tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Better not look at the 6Z GFS... oof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 looks like a few changes during sleep time. no big surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 fwiw, this is an hr off, but the nam going off 12z low positioning the nam is much closer compared to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RPM (the model has *some* value within 24 hours) has the 2" line generally from ACY to PHL to RDG and north. 4" in Pinelands from VAY north. 6" north of EWR-MPO (generally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like guidance is backing off. The Mt Holly call looks good down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like guidance is backing off. The Mt Holly call looks good down here. yea what they have now i think is pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Tom - JB made a similar op this AM that the low is actually west of HSE.... fwiw, this is an hr off, but the nam going off 12z low positioning the nam is much closer compared to the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 on the 3z sref plumes if you take out the 3 lowest and 3 highest its 6 inches for the mean on phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 on the 3z sref plumes if you take out the 3 lowest and 3 highest its 6 inches for the mean on phl I SREF has overdone snow on the edge of storms before - 2/5/10 and 12/26/10 come to mind. Hopefully its right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I SREF has overdone snow on the edge of storms before - 2/5/10 and 12/26/10 come to mind. Hopefully its right this time. yea i would favor mt holly's 2-4...you will probably see them tick back some at 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam and gfs where to warm at this time for the NYC metro. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like it will track NNE near the coast for the next few hours along the strengthening coastal front. Thats where the biggest pressure falls are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam and gfs where to warm at this time for the NYC metro. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next few hours yea they both were to warm. Though the real push of warmth isn't forecasted to come til later on, that may get muted since its colder. we shall see. That r/s line is pushing north on the coef corr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam and gfs where to warm at this time for the NYC metro. Should be interesting to see what happens in the next few hours Encouraging that the GFS is already too far east with the low. We're definitely riding on pins and needles here for tonight though to see how fast everything starts to really crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 PRetty impressive jet structure. The RRQ( entrance region) of a 130kt jet streak to out north, and a 110kt jet streak left exit region to our south. IN the middle, BOOM< goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 PRetty impressive jet structure. The RRQ( entrance region) of a 130kt jet streak to out north, and a 110kt jet streak left exit region to our south. IN the middle, BOOM< goes the dynamite. Dude!! You might be ready for the expert desk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 @ sp, thanks for the compliment. No where near ready for that place. Just some things i've learned from reading the boards here and what to look for. These pro forecasters/ skilled ams/ and red taggers ( and maybe even some of those mods) are an invaluable asset to this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 PRetty impressive jet structure. The RRQ( entrance region) of a 130kt jet streak to out north, and a 110kt jet streak left exit region to our south. IN the middle, BOOM< goes the dynamite. Next time you better draw your acceleration vectors and ageostrophic vectors! Yes, this jet structure is very impressive and a major reason why this southern stream s/w is going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ^^ i'll leave that up to you! I know ageostrophic flow is off the land?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Better hope the HRRR in its longer range is incorrect: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know it is nowcasting time, but new SREF's don't look as wet as previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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