HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Before I shower and head to bed, I would say give the HPC a read. Seems to be a warm initialization error with the NAM tonight and they are basically going with the 12z ECMWF overall for the storm's evolution. Obviously, the SREF / ECMWF guidance together will be the best bet and the 00z ECMWF will be the way to hedge in amounts. This will come down to the last minute because subtle details in the waves' partial phasing will make a huge difference for our area. If ECMWF heads east toward the GFS, I would take their compromised amounts and hope they are around the SREF guidance. I forgot to say that if it holds or even increases on the 00z run to just run with the ECMWF/SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The most progressive model is actually west of the 00z GFS at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctm1965 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What time is the next Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1245 for paid sites* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Convection may be the driver in the east shift from the GFS. NAM with that warm error that HM stated. Agree that the SREF/EC may be the best way to go with the GFS and NAM on opposite ends of the spread. Time for bed, got to get my schedule in gear so I'll be up for my shift at 4 am Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEM is mediocre FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GEM is mediocre FWIW. Ukie the same. uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1245 for paid sites* Can i put in a request for central jersey pbp lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Met in NYC forum says Euro's low pressure at 24 hrs is identical to the 12z at 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EC is less snowy... About 6" at TTN where old run had 10" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EC is less snowy... About 6" at TTN where old run had 10" or so less snowy because of warmth or less qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah Doug said it was a tad weaker and a little more to the east compared to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Less QPF no big deal for new york but a big deal for us riding the sw quadrant .68 abe vs the 12z 1.0 dr freaking no .88 philly something like .30 that mix and rain lets say that converts to 5" philly 6" quakertown and 7" allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What is the total QPF on tonights run? (ECM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does anyone know what the EURO initialized at with the LOW down south?? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EC is less snowy... About 6" at TTN where old run had 10" or so here in middlesex county looks about 9 - 10"...... old run 15" looks like about 11 to 12" at sandy hook. based on weather underground maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The gradient with this storm is going to be insane....around here there will be some pretty massive weepings and gnashing of teeth. Keep your expectations low and disregard the NAM...and be pleasantly surprised if by chance it ended up being the blind squirrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here's the QPF breakdown from the EC: MPO: ~0.71" frozen, 0.71" total ABE: ~0.67" frozen, 0.67" total RDG: ~0.34" frozen, 0.46" total TTN: ~0.60" frozen, 1.12" total PHL: ~0.35" frozen, 0.88" total ILG: ~0.19" frozen, 0.66" total ACY: ~0.25" frozen, 1.52" total GED: ~0.03" frozen, 1.32" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no big deal for new york but a big deal for us riding the sw quadrant .68 abe vs the 12z 1.0 dr freaking no .88 philly something like .30 that mix and rain lets say that converts to 5" philly 6" quakertown and 7" allentown Well if the NAM gave NY'ers dreams of 30" then yeah it makes a diff NYC still looks good for 10-12" on the EC. Of course that's a big difference from the 18-20" that the old run had. I'm sure the NYC threads are raging and depressed right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 03 SREF at 4.6" for a mean at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah Doug said it was a tad weaker and a little more to the east compared to the previous run. I'm not sure if its weaker but its definitely east of 12Z. GFS and EC aren't that far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM at 6z shifts low about 20-30 miles east...and thus the western edge of the heavy precip is shifted 20-30 miles east. A bit less snow in the city too...Trenton north/east still do pretty well but the 30-40" BS is out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM at 6z shifts low about 20-30 miles east...and thus the western edge of the heavy precip is shifted 20-30 miles east. A bit less snow in the city too...Trenton north/east still do pretty well but the 30-40" BS is out of the picture. The Nam? I know we are under the Nam's 12 hr. jackpot zone, but consider it's performance all Winter long. The American models have one thing in common, they have been the worst at verifying position and strength, they have been terrible, period. The Euro ensembles have them beat by a mile this Winter. Anyway, this will turn out to be a nowcast with warnings and advisories changing as the storm goes as unpredictably as I believe it will. Here is an irony. I think Philly does better than 6"based on the pressure falls in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Nam? I know we are under the Nam's 12 hr. jackpot zone, but consider it's performance all Winter long. The American models have one thing in common, they have been the worst at verifying position and strength, they have been terrible, period. The Euro ensembles have them beat by a mile this Winter. Anyway, this will turn out to be a nowcast with warnings and advisories changing as the storm goes as unpredictably as I believe it will. Here is an irony. I think Philly does better than 6"based on the pressure falls in the northern stream. I think the main point is that pretty much all guidance has had an eastward shift since the 0Z NAM drunk run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing in Leesburg va in case anyone cared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the main point is that pretty much all guidance has had an eastward shift since the 0Z NAM drunk run. that and the NAM may be getting in line with the Euro and GFS...operative word is *may* given it's one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing in Leesburg va in case anyone cared Seeing as temps are continuing to rise across this region with above freezing temps along and SE of I-95... well, I don't, maybe the NW folks do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I keep seeing pressure falls in the northern energy. If that holds, the whole game changes, and this gets more interesting for points south. I'm no model hugger. They are only as good as the information they are fed. My point is, this is such a complicated "Rube Goldberg" type storm with a million convoluted moving pieces, the end result will never reflect what was modeled. We watch the model change every six hours. Doesn't someone realize that is exactly how it is initialized, NOT its prediction? How many model runs to date? Our good friends at NOAA in Mt. Holly, are calling this based on what they are seeing, a nowcast, with current real-time information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 clown map (not that it matters much at this point but you can tell how much it's backed off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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