HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 its called using the sref's 21z SREF mean probs for snow are 50% at 00z for TTN. LOL But it looked like a nice 8-14" type of range for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 its called using the sref's thanks. NAM seemed a bit ridiculous. and thanks to all you guys for your discussions. learning much by just reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the sref plume popped philly up to 7.4 inch avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The profiles are ridiculous between 00z-09z across the area with unstable layer in SGZ. There are easy 2"/hr rates and thundersnow in this band tomorrow night on the NAM. check please! BTW I am still waiting for your traditional gravity wave post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z SREF mean probs for snow are 50% at 00z for TTN. LOL But it looked like a nice 8-14" type of range for them. the 21z sref plume was 10.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is there a factor when dealing with the NAM's overblown number? like 50% 60%? It's purely situationally dependent. There's no real magic slashing percentage. It's tough to tell, but I would say the NAM is certainly overdone in the higher amounts. Maybe closer to reality further away from that CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 21z sref plume was 10.4 you wouldn't throw out MBN1 because it's such an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's purely situationally dependent. There's no real magic slashing percentage. It's tough to tell, but I would say the NAM is certainly overdone in the higher amounts. Maybe closer to reality further away from that CCB Thanks. Going to be real interesting how this all plays out. I'm in eastern PA between Easton and Stroudsburg and the numbers keep flipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 the 21z sref plume was 10.4 I saw the plumes and the one thing to note is the steady increase for the last 4 runs. It is going to be a very nice scene around here this time tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you wouldn't throw out MBN1 because it's such an outlier? well yea i would...obv that will knock it down, but you would also throw out the low end one to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hear the RGEM is very close to the NAM. Very strong UVV'S on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is lot tamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what a world of difference between the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hear the RGEM is very close to the NAM. Very strong UVV'S on our side. RGEM warmer Similar to GFS being further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS never had any solution even near what the EURO and nam showed the last 2 days. Why all of a sudden now are we shocked it's so different at 18 hours ?? The NAM has been pretty rock solid today with minor shifts ever so slightly bringing snow to the western fringe. Look at the radar, that thing is juiced. I do however think the NAM is overdone, but by how much... time is just about out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where the NAM had 13" snow (and 3+" QPF) the GFS has 3" snow (and less than 1" QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 phl qpf roughly 0.6 - only an inch or two of snow. Drier regionwide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS never had any solution even near what the EURO and nam showed the last 2 days. Why all of a sudden now are we shocked it's so different at 18 hours ?? The NAM has been pretty rock solid today with minor shifts ever so slightly bringing snow to the western fringe. Look at the radar, that thing is juiced. I do however think the NAM is overdone, but by how much... time is just about out. Doesn't matter how juiced it is if the storm ends up further east as the GFS depicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FWIW, the 12Z EC was just about right in between the 0Z GFS and 0Z NAM with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where the NAM had 13" snow (and 3+" QPF) the GFS has 3" snow (and less than 1" QPF). yea...what to do? last night I recall people informing the NAM is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is further east from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Accepting, wryly, with all the past experience of surprises still to come, what can I expect Tom or Ray IMBY here, five minutes from the Walt Whitman Bridge, a 5 minute walk to Chickie and Petes. You can expect it to rain, then change to snow late in the day or early in the evening, then snow will taper off at some point after midnight. As far as amounts... I guess 3-6 still looks OK for PHL. Though if for some reason the EC suddenly diverged east towards the GFS, I'd be very worried about that forecast being too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 everybody is throwing the GFS out in the NYC forum...and you know they would be rejoicing and praising it if it caved to the other models. So realistically can it be right, they say over there it does not handle convection blah blah blah but as a main model that is used, can a model like this simply be tossed at this time. All along it has had a lesser storm...and you know people in NYC can still get a nice snowstorm out of that anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is there another section/thread of the forum where the accuracy of the major models are revisited after a major weather event?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 everybody is throwing the GFS out in the NYC forum...and you know they would be rejoicing and praising it if it caved to the other models. So realistically can it be right, they say over there it does not handle convection blah blah blah but as a main model that is used, can a model like this simply be tossed at this time. All along it has had a lesser storm...and you know people in NYC can still get a nice snowstorm out of that anyhow Right now a GFS/NAM/EC blend agrees with my forecast best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Why are we leaving out the EURO here - it was the first model to pick up the storm I remember reading in an AFD. And unless I'm wrong, it has been pretty consistent for a while now on still bringing decent snows into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 everybody is throwing the GFS out in the NYC forum...and you know they would be rejoicing and praising it if it caved to the other models. So realistically can it be right, they say over there it does not handle convection blah blah blah but as a main model that is used, can a model like this simply be tossed at this time. All along it has had a lesser storm...and you know people in NYC can still get a nice snowstorm out of that anyhow I have witnessed the NAM bust.It is not fun:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Right now a GFS/NAM/EC blend agrees with my forecast best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd go with a Euro/SREF blend. The GFS and NAM pretty much cancel out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Before I shower and head to bed, I would say give the HPC a read. Seems to be a warm initialization error with the NAM tonight and they are basically going with the 12z ECMWF overall for the storm's evolution. Obviously, the SREF / ECMWF guidance together will be the best bet and the 00z ECMWF will be the way to hedge in amounts. This will come down to the last minute because subtle details in the waves' partial phasing will make a huge difference for our area. If ECMWF heads east toward the GFS, I would take their compromised amounts and hope they are around the SREF guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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