NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low dewpoints may get us all a period of snow to start, we shall see. Catching up...did the 18z NAM show the potential for that? Haven't seen soundings. Thanks for chiming in on the dp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low dewpoints may get us all a period of snow to start, we shall see. Mitchell, low enough to keep precip all frozen up in northern portion of Lehigh Valley? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS and NAM are pretty consistent with a low level warm push making it rain by 12Z Friday morning at TTN. They could be wrong I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z srefs the wettest so far... gets 1.75-2 to ttn... 1.5 close to phl... 1.25 back to ukt and ptw and paul locale 1 inch from lns to pocs and .75 back to mdt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ray, Have you seen sleet in any of the data? Haven't heard much about the possibility. Any would be brief, I would assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS and NAM are pretty consistent with a low level warm push making it rain by 12Z Friday morning at TTN. They could be wrong I suppose... Seems a bit strange. Synoptically speaking, one would think we begin as snow with a 1032mb sfc high in almost ideal position, nice CAD, good dew point depression, 850's sub freezing, and moderate precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z srefs the wettest so far... gets 1.75-2 to ttn... 1.5 close to phl... 1.25 back to ukt and ptw and paul locale 1 inch from lns to pocs and .75 back to mdt... Temps Tombo? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Temps Tombo? Thanks you still start as rain, but a better thump on backside. The low level warmth is causing it cause the 850s never get to you on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 you still start as rain, but a better thump on backside. The low level warmth is causing it cause the 850s get to just to your south. Thanks tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 21z srefs the wettest so far... gets 1.75-2 to ttn... 1.5 close to phl... 1.25 back to ukt and ptw and paul locale 1 inch from lns to pocs and .75 back to mdt... Colder also. Maybe some front end snow and more back-end as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Seems a bit strange. Synoptically speaking, one would think we begin as snow with a 1032mb sfc high in almost ideal position, nice CAD, good dew point depression, 850's sub freezing, and moderate precip. The northern branch system screws it up. The high is actually displaced a bit east from ideal. Notice due east winds on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ray, Have you seen sleet in any of the data? Haven't heard much about the possibility. Any would be brief, I would assume? Could be a bit later in the day tomorrow as the warm BL gets beaten back. More likely toward the coast than inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The northern branch system screws it up. The high is actually displaced a bit east from ideal. Notice due east winds on the NJ coast. True, without the northern stream wave our sfc flow would be oriented more NELY rather than ELY, which makes a significant difference. Usually when winds are east, the warmer solution at the low levels tends to be correct. Skew-ts seem to indicate PHL's NW suburbs could start as snow, but we'll see what the 00z NAM does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Could be a bit later in the day tomorrow as the warm BL gets beaten back. More likely toward the coast than inland. the models are pretty close with the temps right now. comparing the 18z nam to right now to the current 925mb temps its like .5 off. The 0z init correctly at -5 925mb temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 True, without the northern stream wave our sfc flow would be oriented more NELY rather than ELY, which makes a significant difference. Usually when winds are east, the warmer solution at the low levels tends to be correct. Skew-ts seem to indicate PHL's NW suburbs could start as snow, but we'll see what the 00z NAM does.. The timing of the precip start will matter too. If it does start at 9Z-10Z then it certainly could be snow, but would look to transition to rain by 12Z. At least along I-95. NW of I-95 is more up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM looks weaker with the southern vort through hr 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM is also a bit warmer with the BL thru 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The timing of the precip start will matter too. If it does start at 9Z-10Z then it certainly could be snow, but would look to transition to rain by 12Z. At least along I-95. NW of I-95 is more up in the air. Looks like the precip could get here early. Making steady progress on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM noticeably warmer. 0.03" falls before this point but if this verifies its certainly rain by 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well one thing I can say is that through 21, its definitely warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well one thing I can say is that through 21, its definitely warmer. yea it deff is, the flip is between hr 21-24 over to snow...the northern stream to me though looks like it phases in a hair faster this run, thoughts? The actual flip over actually occurs faster this run with a further west bump in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not much change in location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yea it deff is, the flip is between hr 21-24 over to snow...the northern stream to me though looks like it phases in a hair faster this run, thoughts? At TTN its even later... still rain at 24. That may cut into totals... I don't have maps in front of me yet so I'll "punt" your question for a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Back-side snow looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this nam run might be the snowiest yet. At TTN its even later... still rain at 24. That may cut into totals... I don't have maps in front of me yet so I'll "punt" your question for a little bit thats odd, the sounding shows the 925mb temp abv freezing. the sv map below has it below at hr 24. I should of looked at soundings before saying that lol. I didn't see that sneaky warm layer between 925 and 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 At TTN its even later... still rain at 24. That may cut into totals... I don't have maps in front of me yet so I'll "punt" your question for a little bit Ray, Does Does Eastern PA, Stay frozen from ABE on Northward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A true QPF bomb this run. Never saw so much in one frame I dont think as 27 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol regardless ray, ttn is over 3 inches of qpf right now lol. Its still going to be a dump on this run at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snow to the coast by hour 27. Everyone has changed over, by probably hour 25-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ray, Does Does Eastern PA, Stay frozen from ABE on Northward? Theres some weak warm tongues that move in, temps maybe a half degree above freezing, from 15-21. 12 is cold and 24 is cold. So that would say you may mix with sleet/rain which would cut totals between 12 and 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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