Voyager Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So what kind of start times are we looking at in the region. I hit the roads in the big truck at 7:00AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dynamic enough for thundersnow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Dynamic enough for thundersnow? I noticed the advisory mentioned the possibility of this. * TIMING...RAIN FRIDAY WILL CHANGE TO WET SNOW LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF ONE TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST 30 MPH CAUSING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nice Map. Let's hope there is no bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is there time for this to trend even better for the area? Or have we basically seen all the trending we will with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just curious why the WSW in Ches Co is like that. Would have thought they would split county north\south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is there time for this to trend even better for the area? Or have we basically seen all the trending we will with this one? 0z is huge......In all seriousness though i think the general idea of the storm is set.....but there could always be last minute adjustment for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just curious why the WSW in Ches Co is like that. Would have thought they would split county north\south. western half is more in tune with Berks & Upper Mont. Chester County isn't the cleanest county to cut for a zone unlike Bucks & Mont (IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 That is a sharp cutoff on the NAM. Come on, lets give PHL itself something. You guys are selfish lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mt. Holly increased totals on maps. bring warning level snows into eastern chesco, N&W half of delco, and western philly county: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 mt. Holly increased totals on maps. bring warning level snows into eastern chesco, N&W half of delco, and western philly county: I'm guessing WSW will be extended south later as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm guessing WSW will be extended south later as well. SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ **IMPOSING WINTER STORM TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF OUR AREA** WE'VE HAD AN EASTERN REGION CONFERENCE CALL WITH NCEP AT NOON AND THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES HEAVY FOR OUR AREA. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT BANDING OF SNOW WILL CAUSE VARYING AMOUNTS WITHIN THE PREDICTED VALUES AND THAT ITS POSSIBLE WE'LL NEED TO ADJUST THE AMOUNTS LOWER IN LATER FORECASTS....ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THATS ONE REASON WHY NO WARNING PHL AND NO ADVY IN E MD AND CENTRAL DE. JUST UNSURE HOW MUCH COMMA HEAD BACKWASH CAN OCCUR FROM ALLENTOWN TO ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...THIS SHOULD BALL PARK. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS FIERCE AS DEC 26 2010... ITS STILL GOING BE A MAJOR EVENT FOR THE REGION ALONG AND N OF I78...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NNJ AND NE PA. IF THIS DETERMINISTIC FORECAST PANS OUT...SOME ROADS MAY BE BRIEFLY IMPASSABLE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR INTENSE SNOW FALL RATES. FALL 12Z MODELS EXCEPT...THE LIGHTER UKMET...ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. THIS INCLUDES THE 18Z NAM. THIS STORM DEPENDS ON PHASING OF THE GTLKS SHORT WAVE WITH THE FEEDER WARMER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. ALL DELICATE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT LEANING...COLDER AND SNOWIER. WARNINGS AND ADVISORY AMOUNTS MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN FUTURE FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I think it will be interesting how many get caught "unaware"or "off guard" as so many media forecasts were for a mainly rain event here in se pa. IF the bad stuff holds off till 3 pm then probaly no big deal, but if we wake up to issues - which i think is possible - then lots of comments about "i didn,t expect this." I have spoken to several this pm expecting all or almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is East of the NAM at 24-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z GFS seems about half of QPF of Nam. Also, looks more like 12-15 at Boston instead of 18-30. Maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS is East of the NAM at 24-30 hours. its west of its 12z run, and slightly east of 18z NAM. and as suspected, more realistic with QPF values.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 its west of its 12z run, and slightly east of 18z NAM. and as suspected, more realistic with QPF values.. Yep....it's catching up it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yep....it's catching up it appears. The really heavy stuff is just offshore on the GFS. A little westerly jog and who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just noticed that when checking the WWA for Chester County, PA (work). They mention Cherry Hill, NJ in the WWA 2-5", and Moorsetown and Mt Laurel, NJ in the WSW 6-8". Meh, I'm sure it'll get tweaked once or twice before tomorrow... Yeah. I probably should be under a warning, yet I'm not... yet. Whatever, it isn't a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lot of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I just noticed that when checking the WWA for Chester County, PA (work). They mention Cherry Hill, NJ in the WWA 2-5", and Moorsetown and Mt Laurel, NJ in the WSW 6-8". Meh, I'm sure it'll get tweaked once or twice before tomorrow... They have to put the boundary between the WWAs and the WSWs somewhere. In South Jersey, PHI made their best guess as the border between Camden and Burlington County. Cherry Hill and Mount Laurel share a long border, but Cherry Hill happens to be in Camden County and Mt. Laurel happens to be in Burlington County, hence the difference. Unless the guys at Mt. Holly are truly psychic (and they ARE darn good, but, to the best of my knowledge, not psychic), presumably there won't be that huge a difference between the two once the snow starts flying. Ideally (because I live there), Cherry Hill will get into the heavier stuff, but it is just as likely that Mt. Laurel gets a bit less than the WSW is calling for. As you say, look for plenty of tweaks as the system develops... hopefully positive tweaks for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Anyone have an idea of how the timing is right now compared to what the models are showing? Slower, faster, same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So will we have precip in eastern pa during the day tomorrow? I notice the warning starts at 3:00 at least in my area. Will it be dry during the morning on Friday or will it be snowing and raining? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So will we have precip in eastern pa during the day tomorrow? I notice the warning starts at 3:00 at least in my area. Will it be dry during the morning on Friday or will it be snowing and raining? Thanks It won't be dry just lgt snow or mix/rain garbage. The brunt is after 3 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Latest Wxsim on timing etc. is light snow/rain mix by 6am with heavy snow kicking in around 3pm - looks to be heaviest thru midnight and then light snow through about 5am Saturday. I am a little concerned that about 0.50" of liquid falls before the 3pm switch to S+ - I am not convinced that temps rise thru the night with DPs so low. So could be some snow and ice accumulation in that 1/2 inch of liquid. Thereafter from 3pm on the Wxsim program kicks out between 8" to 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here's my first call map I made for the Central PA thread. I make these maps with a focus on all of PA (and a bit of surrounding) so figured I'd share since you Philly/LV/central&northern NJ folks look to do alot better than us back in central and western PA haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here's my first call map I made for the Central PA thread. I make these maps with a focus on all of PA (and a bit of surrounding) so figured I'd share since you Philly/LV/central&northern NJ folks look to do alot better than us back in central and western PA haha. Slide1.gif I think this is a pretty good call. Although, I think that 2-5, 5-8, 8-12 gradient should be a little tighter and pushed a little farther east. Going to be one heck of an accumulation gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think this is a pretty good call. Although, I think that 2-5, 5-8, 8-12 gradient should be a little tighter and pushed a little farther east. Going to be one heck of an accumulation gradient. If you don't mind me asking, who are you from WGAL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you don't mind me asking, who are you from WGAL? No problem. It's Matt Moore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low dewpoints may get us all a period of snow to start, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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