MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 How much QPF north and west of KPHL like in the Allentown area? ABE gets 0.9" QPF and looks pretty comfortable temp wise for good snow. Could be one of the best PA spots on the 0z Euro snowwise. Philly (PHL) has about 1.2" and probably has early issues with p-type. Text data is only in 6 hour intervals, but if I were to venture a rough guess.. probably at least half of the QPF would be snow. 2m temps drop and stay right near freezing til very late in the event.. so could be more of a sloppy type snow. ABE by comparison starts into the better part of the event in upper 20s falling into the low-mid 20s. The euro consolidates the precip shield just in time for central and especially eastern Penn with the transfer to the rapidly deepening coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS ensemble is colder than the operational, but further out to sea and therefore shows much less precip. However plenty of time to work back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow parts of Long Island get destroyed on the Euro run. I think that is an old image ..this is tonights 72 and 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 ABE gets 0.9" QPF and looks pretty comfortable temp wise for good snow. Could be one of the best PA spots on the 0z Euro snowwise. Philly (PHL) has about 1.2" and probably has early issues with p-type. Text data is only in 6 hour intervals, but if I were to venture a rough guess.. probably at least half of the QPF would be snow. 2m temps drop and stay right near freezing til very late in the event.. so could be more of a sloppy type snow. ABE by comparison starts into the better part of the event in upper 20s falling into the low-mid 20s. The euro consolidates the precip shield just in time for central and especially eastern Penn with the transfer to the rapidly deepening coastal. Thank you ..so looks like 6 + on the ECM here in ABE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 EC frozen QPF (my interpretation) (because I'm bored and will soon be very jealous if its right): MPO - ~0.93 frozen ABE - ~0.84 frozen RDG - ~0.60 frozen TTN - ~0.92 frozen PHL - ~0.56 frozen ILG - ~0.44 frozen ACY - ~0.46 frozen GED - ~0.20 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This does not sound all that promising from the model discussion from HPC PROGRESSIVE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST PREFERENCE: 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 00Z NAM STARTS OUT WEAKER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE PAIR OF SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THEN BECOMES THE SWIFTEST WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH THE RELATED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK DUE TO HOW IT HANDLES THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, WITH THE 18Z/00Z GFS OUTPACING THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DURING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE REJOINING THE PACK FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE ONLY 11 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (MOSTLY ECMWF MEMBERS) WHICH SUPPORT THE 00Z ECMWF SURFACE SOLUTION...TOO FEW TO BELIEVE AT THIS TIME RANGE. TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL OF THIS, AND THE PREFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHICH THIS SURFACE LOW MERGES INTO, A COMPROMISE OF THE INTERMEDIATE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET IS PREFERRED HERE WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED WHEN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS PHASE, WHICH IS GREATER THAN USUAL. THIS PREFERENCE IS SIMILAR TO A SLOWED VERSION OF THE 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ray how about frozen precip for northern Monmouth county, say the Sandy Hook area? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This looks like a NYC and interior and CT. special. Colder air wraps in by the time the storm is spinning up, good dynamics, and more snow than Philly, but even NYC has changeover problems with the low pressure coming up from the South, and the storm heading for their 40/70 BM . Cold air is missing down here ( ironic given the last week ). Best snow is Eastern L.I., coastal Connecticut as this storm is a classic after hitting the 40/70 BM, and, of course, coastal New England, depending on NE progression or not. If it rides the BM, Boston and interior NE get slammed. At the moment, it doesn't come together fast enough by a hair for PHILLY. But, you never know...... based on 10 years living in NYC, snow, cold rain, snow, with the City on the light side. I'd head for New England for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Ray how about frozen precip for northern Monmouth county, say the Sandy Hook area? Thanks. Well, here's BLM and JFK... BLM - ~0.97" frozen JFK - ~1.44" frozen You get the idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Thanks ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the 850 line never breaks north of Philly on the Euro solution...there appear to be some BL issues on the front end so there would probably be some light rain or mix initially but NW of 295/NJ Turnpike is below 0 at 850 through the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Well, Friday is my birthday, and even though I'm not a "snow hound", it looks like I might possibly get a nice birthday present out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z GFS is slower on the phase than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 FWIW one of the "big" analogs on the CIPS site for the 0z GFS run is 12/25/02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 wow, nice trending change on 0z euro over night. need a 12z run to match it. need more support from gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 no it doesn't sound good This does not sound all that promising from the model discussion from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 no it doesn't sound good When it's a low confidence Canadian/ukmet blend, it rarely does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want to say this. Keep your expectations in check. Its nice seeing the euro continue to trend towards a snowier solution, but their still is a lot of other models that aren't much of anything. I don't want this thread to turn into a weenie fest, cause if it does things will be delted and you will be 5ppd. I want good discussion in here like our forum has always had. Like HM said this is a very finicky situation, lots can go right or wrong. We are still 2.5 days away. If everything has trended favorable and its 24 hrs away and still looks good, then get the ky jelly out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does anyone have the euro ens, they aren't on raliegh's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want to say this. Keep your expectations in check. Its nice seeing the euro continue to trend towards a snowier solution, but their still is a lot of other models that aren't much of anything. I don't want this thread to turn into a weenie fest, cause if it does things will be delted and you will be 5ppd. I want good discussion in here like our forum has always had. Like HM said this is a very finicky situation, lots can go right or wrong. We are still 2.5 days away. If everything has trended favorable and its 24 hrs away and still looks good, then get the ky jelly out. It's indeed a very delicate situation. That said, most of the models have the same vague idea as the euro, just that the euro has the phase quicker hence colder and wetter. The elements that the euro is keying on to accomplish this are depicted inside of 72hrs, which is the euros deadly zone. The euro has been showing its idea run after run while the other models seem to be playing catch up (though the 6z NAM is a mess). Much reason to think that that the euro gets this closer to right IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does anyone have the euro ens, they aren't on raliegh's site Screenshot from the NYC forum: Posted by weatherX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Bri, that's not bad. Looks like it's not as strong with digging the northern stream s/w as far as the op, which you would prob expect from a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want to say this. Keep your expectations in check. Its nice seeing the euro continue to trend towards a snowier solution, but their still is a lot of other models that aren't much of anything. I don't want this thread to turn into a weenie fest, cause if it does things will be delted and you will be 5ppd. I want good discussion in here like our forum has always had. Like HM said this is a very finicky situation, lots can go right or wrong. We are still 2.5 days away. If everything has trended favorable and its 24 hrs away and still looks good, then get the ky jelly out. Lol. You said KY.............. Might need a bit of ky if you plan on negotiating both morning and afternoon commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 After looking at the euro and comparing it to the 0z run. Everything was about 6 hours slower. The northern stream and southern stream with the storm. Biggest difference to me other then that was the ridge out west much more amplified than 12z, which probably helped the northern stream dig some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this was taken out of the nyc forum. I'm not sure how good the rpm model is, but take with tons of grains of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want to say this. Keep your expectations in check. Its nice seeing the euro continue to trend towards a snowier solution, but their still is a lot of other models that aren't much of anything. I don't want this thread to turn into a weenie fest, cause if it does things will be delted and you will be 5ppd. I want good discussion in here like our forum has always had. Like HM said this is a very finicky situation, lots can go right or wrong. We are still 2.5 days away. If everything has trended favorable and its 24 hrs away and still looks good, then get the ky jelly out. Does the Euro's amplification biases cause concern despite the 6 days of consistency? I suppose it's tendency to over amp phasing could just be carried from run to run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I just want to say this. Keep your expectations in check. Its nice seeing the euro continue to trend towards a snowier solution, but their still is a lot of other models that aren't much of anything. I don't want this thread to turn into a weenie fest, cause if it does things will be delted and you will be 5ppd. I want good discussion in here like our forum has always had. Like HM said this is a very finicky situation, lots can go right or wrong. We are still 2.5 days away. If everything has trended favorable and its 24 hrs away and still looks good, then get the ky jelly out. I'm still not expecting much in the PHL metro area. Everything needs to go perfectly for us to get into it, even in the 4-6" range. LV, Pocs, and NW NJ are all in the game for a significant snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Does the Euro's amplification biases cause concern despite the 6 days of consistency? I suppose it's tendency to over amp phasing could just be carried from run to run? The euro is the number 1 model in the world, but you shouldn't just throw everything else out. My point was, till everything comes to the euro's solution of if the euro trends towards the other models, view with caution. Remember with sandy, the euro was gung ho the whole time while everything else was out in left field. Everything then trended towards it. The gfs track of the low is oretty close to the euro, but the phase is later thus a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I think the RPM model is good with 24-36 hours and was one of the first models to go against that inverted trough fiasco in Boston a few weeks ago if I'm not mistaken. Interesting however it's not far off from the Euro. Even the today show is showing the EURO vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this was taken out of the nyc forum. I'm not sure how good the rpm model is, but take with tons of grains of salt I have to chuckle at Channel 4 using Cherry Hill (my town) on that map... but I would absolutely take that and be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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