Allsnow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 EWR still has BL issues but to me it looks like they get close to 18" on the EC. Thanks ray and tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 briefing will need an update. watches up soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Well my range caught both Adam's forecast and Tom's, guess that's good right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Take a half day. I wouldn't want to risk rush hour tomorrow afternoon if I didn't have to. Yeah well I have a meeting in Bergen County from 100 to 200 PM. May be a doozy getting back to PA. Man does Central LI get pummeled on the latest Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just gonna do a little copy/paste from the blog post since I didn't have much to say: I went with a rough 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, with some personal touches here and there. NAM's still out to lunch with it's QPF and snow totals, so I didn't even bother with it. There's going to be some winners and losers in the low-end/mix areas as the details work themselves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 OT, but the "U" in KU is now the big boss of the NWS. Probably a good sign for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good map, Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 OT, but the "U" in KU is now the big boss of the NWS. Probably a good sign for this storm. http://www.nwseo.org/member_news.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions? tough to say. SV doesn't really have wind maps, and EWALL isn't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfallower Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah I think tomorrow night we could max out at 18:1 in far NE PA / NW NJ to 12:1 down in the PHL-S NJ area. The SREF guidance was pretty much this outcome, probabilistically. As for my thoughts, I should warn that I have no BUFKIT at my disposal right now! womp... Where will the cut off be- more like the Lindsey Storm or farther west like the Blizzard of 78? The storm isn't hugging the coast but I also here its coming west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions? I'm going of wunderground version of euro. And it has 10-20 mph sustained for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DKay1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is it ok to post a link to our local 6abc map with snow totals? I'd really like to know what model they base their totals on and if you think they are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is it ok to post a link to our local 6abc map with snow totals? I'd really like to know what model they base their totals on and if you think they are accurate. Vendor thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions? I think I read in the AFD that they're considering a blizzard warning for Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How do HM and Adam call these storms this far out. You guys are unbelievable mets. Hope you guys can cash in around philly, i think you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 where does everyone think the rain snow sets up for the first part of the storm. I am just north of Princeton, do you think I am mainly an all snow event. By reading the NYC forum they seem to think all snow in NJ all the time so I need a less biased opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 where does everyone think the rain snow sets up for the first part of the storm. I am just north of Princeton, do you think I am mainly an all snow event. By reading the NYC forum they seem to think all snow in NJ all the time so I need a less biased opinion no, you will start as rain. Can't go off of 850. There is a warm push in the lower levels, bl related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 where does everyone think the rain snow sets up for the first part of the storm. I am just north of Princeton, do you think I am mainly an all snow event. By reading the NYC forum they seem to think all snow in NJ all the time so I need a less biased opinion I think you'll see a bit of rain, but probably change over around rush hour. Maybe a little before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 THis storm, as modeled, could be pushing nesis 3-4 potential* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Please do the weather world a favor if you use twitter -- don't use the TWC storm name in hashtags. Storm will find its way to trending status on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 THis storm, as modeled, could be pushing nesis 3-4 potential* What's the asterisk for? And what is NESIS 3-4? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 On the water vapor, the southern storm kooks to be wrapping up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ABE 1.03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is this something where we could see extreme coastal NJ make out better if one of them deformation bands sets up properly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif prettyb sexy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Is this something where we could see extreme coastal NJ make out better if one of them deformation bands sets up properly? Yes, absolutely. Whoever gets under the CCB gets hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif prettyb sexy... Wow that's impressive looks like an earlier change over to snow down into SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif prettyb sexy... cool when the 2 merge, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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