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FORECAST DISCUSSION: "The Storm They Couldn't Punt" 2/7-2/9


HM

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How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions?

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Just gonna do a little copy/paste from the blog post since I didn't have much to say:

post-96-0-89762000-1360262647_thumb.png

I went with a rough 50/50 blend of the GFS and Euro, with some personal touches here and there. NAM's still out to lunch with it's QPF and snow totals, so I didn't even bother with it. There's going to be some winners and losers in the low-end/mix areas as the details work themselves out.

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How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions?

tough to say. SV doesn't really have wind maps, and EWALL isn't out yet.

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Yeah I think tomorrow night we could max out at 18:1 in far NE PA / NW NJ to 12:1 down in the PHL-S NJ area. The SREF guidance was pretty much this outcome, probabilistically. As for my thoughts, I should warn that I have no BUFKIT at my disposal right now! womp...

Where will the cut off  be- more like the Lindsey Storm or  farther west like the Blizzard of 78? The storm isn't hugging the coast but I also here its coming west a bit.

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How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions?

I'm going of wunderground version of euro. And it has 10-20 mph sustained for interior

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How does the wind look on the ECMWF this run? Mt Holly is indicating 30 knot gusts possible for the interior. I suppose near-blizzard conditions tomorrow evening is a good bet but can anyone in our region see true conditions?

 

I think I read in the AFD that they're considering a blizzard warning for Monmouth County.

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where does everyone think the rain snow sets up for the first part of the storm. I am just north of Princeton, do you think I am mainly an all snow event. By reading the NYC forum they seem to think all snow in NJ all the time so I need a less biased opinion

no, you will start as rain. Can't go off of 850. There is a warm push in the lower levels, bl related.

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where does everyone think the rain snow sets up for the first part of the storm. I am just north of Princeton, do you think I am mainly an all snow event. By reading the NYC forum they seem to think all snow in NJ all the time so I need a less biased opinion

I think you'll see a bit of rain, but probably change over around rush hour.  Maybe a little before.

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