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FORECAST DISCUSSION: "The Storm They Couldn't Punt" 2/7-2/9


HM

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Well Wxsim with all 12z data now has moderate snow getting underway just before dawn with 2 or 3" accumulating before a mix of snow/rain during the afternoon hours and then back to heavy snow by evening rush hour with another 6" or 7" falling. Total snowfall now in the 8" to 11" range for NW Chester County PA

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Well Wxsim with all 12z data now has moderate snow getting underway just before dawn with 2 or 3" accumulating before a mix of snow/rain during the afternoon hours and then back to heavy snow by evening rush hour with another 6" or 7" falling. Total snowfall now in the 8" to 11" range for NW Chester County PA

 

Interesting.  I think your Wxsim has a pretty good idea about tomorrow night, but I'm very suspicious of anything more than a coating from any front-end snow (south of the Lehigh Valley, of course).

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SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
**IMPOSING WINTER STORM TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF OUR AREA...

ALL LEGACY AND POINT-CLICK FORECASTS UPDATED WITH MORE SNOW AND I
LIKE THE WORDING.

WE`VE HAD AN EASTERN REGION CONFERENCE CALL WITH NCEP AT NOON AND
UNLESS THE ECMWF BACKS OFF CONSIDERABLY TO THE SE IN THE 12Z
RUN...WE WILL WARN AND ADVISE. DETAILS TO BE FORTHCOMING AROUND
230 PM.

THE SNOW TOTAL MAPS WILL UPDATE BY 1255 PM. THEY ARE HIGHER.
 

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Now kind of stupid question. If it comes down heavy enough through-out could this stay all snow as it keeps the column cold enough to be a snow pasting?

the issue one the euro would be the bl temps to start off. The northern stream position is hurting areas further south. Unless that storm really nukes a lot earlier which isn't likely you will lose qpf on rain.

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the issue one the euro would be the bl temps to start off. The northern stream position is hurting areas further south. Unless that storm really nukes a lot earlier which isn't likely you will lose qpf on rain.

The question is where does that set up.  Trying to figure out when roads will get bad in PA/NJ tomorrow.

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