NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Mt. Holly's briefing. Nice job . Gets me all warm inside thinking about how awesome camelback is going to be saturday!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yeah, sounds reasonable, thanks. Usually, and I'm going by memory here, our area sits in the 10-15:1 type of snowfall ratio on the backsides of these things (or during the very beginning when you have a monster Arctic High in place like Feb 03'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Between 00z-06z on the GFS, the soundings grow pretty impressive across eastern PA into PHL and northern/central NJ. There is a pretty large SGZ for our area with strong frontogensis/mid level convergence. Definitely the increasingly cold profiles / convergence (less wind) means that I was wrong about ratios before. While they may be on the order of 5-10:1 before 00z, they would increase above 10:1 with this back edge late evening / overnight. I'll let the Mt. Holly mets take it from here but it looks like a solid chance at 12-18:1 ratios with this part of the storm. Wanted to comment on this before when you posted...the front end stuff, wherever it is actually snowing, is definitely a wet 10:1 pasting, probably even less...but once the CCB gets involved on the backside there, definitely are looking at excellent ratios... I personally think the watches could be extended southward one county in NJ...particularly Ocean county could use one in my honest opinion..What is criteria there 4" right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 anyone thinks the region see's some over running in the am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Mt. Holly's briefing. Nice job . Gets me all warm inside thinking about how awesome camelback is going to be saturday!! not to go off topic, the wind will suck, sunday better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 anyone thinks the region see's some over running in the am? I do perhaps a sloppy mix in south central eastern pa. Nothing substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do we think that advisories will go into Berks/Schuylkill/Lehigh and even back into Lancaster/Lebanon. I know it crosses CWAs but just curious if we will even reach that criteria? I guess lehigh has the best chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Do we think that advisories will go into Berks/Schuylkill/Lehigh and even back into Lancaster/Lebanon. I know it crosses CWAs but just curious if we will even reach that criteria? I guess lehigh has the best chance? Isn't there already a watch in Schuylkill? I would assume they will put Lehigh Cty. in a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wanted to comment on this before when you posted...the front end stuff, wherever it is actually snowing, is definitely a wet 10:1 pasting, probably even less...but once the CCB gets involved on the backside there, definitely are looking at excellent ratios... I personally think the watches could be extended southward one county in NJ...particularly Ocean county could use one in my honest opinion..What is criteria there 4" right? 4 inches in 12 hrs is the criteria or 6 in 24 for south NJ. Not at work today but usually we have extensive internal discussions on what counties in or out for watches or warnings. Products will be updated around 4 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Isn't there already a watch in Schuylkill? I would assume they will put Lehigh Cty. in a watch. I would assume so too. The briefing says north of 78 ( which is the Lehigh valley) all snow, up to 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 watches now out for my area in Northumberland county. also wsw for schuykill http://www.weather.gov/ctp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Wanted to comment on this before when you posted...the front end stuff, wherever it is actually snowing, is definitely a wet 10:1 pasting, probably even less...but once the CCB gets involved on the backside there, definitely are looking at excellent ratios... Yes things do substantially improve between 00z-06z down our way but I'm keeping climo in mind too (moisture associated with nor'easters). Our area tends to see influences that increase faceting/aggregating and limit dendrification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 4 inches in 12 hrs is the criteria or 6 in 24 for south NJ. Not at work today but usually we have extensive internal discussions on what counties in or out for watches or warnings. Products will be updated around 4 pm. Good stuff, and thanks for the explanation. Hope that didnt come off as challenging you guys, didnt intend it to and I know how much thought you guys put into everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yes things do substantially improve between 00z-06z down our way but I'm keeping climo in mind too (moisture associated with nor'easters). Our area tends to see influences that increase faceting/aggregating and limit dendrification. The winds will certainly muddle that...Fair enough. I remember in jan 2005 how the WAA stuff was very dense, likely 10-1 type stuff with easily an inch of liquid equaling 10"...Then the CCB on the back end overnight and early the next morning was pure powder and great snow growth...about 6" more of it couldnt have been more than 0.3 or 0.4 liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The winds will certainly muddle that...Fair enough. I remember in jan 2005 how the WAA stuff was very dense, likely 10-1 type stuff with easily an inch of liquid equaling 10"...Then the CCB on the back end overnight and early the next morning was pure powder and great snow growth...about 6" more of it couldnt have been more than 0.3 or 0.4 liquid. Yeah I think tomorrow night we could max out at 18:1 in far NE PA / NW NJ to 12:1 down in the PHL-S NJ area. The SREF guidance was pretty much this outcome, probabilistically. As for my thoughts, I should warn that I have no BUFKIT at my disposal right now! womp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 so far 12z euro the southern stream storm is deeper and a little further west. Its inland on the outerbanks, sub 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 pretty much similiar so far, its a little slower than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 pretty much similiar so far, its a little slower than 0z. precip a little heavier into NJ. CCB forming earlier? (hr30) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 out to hr 36 stomr placement is a little further west, not as much northern stream phasing but pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 36hr, snow into bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol at the snow throwing back into C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 850s make it to about i295 on the euro then head south. Though, the frz line starts in pocs and is now located in rdg to ukt to ewr corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 nice snow at 42 all of PA. NE will be rocked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 This is brutal when you have to read the PBP by the lucky people with access! (<<< as he toggles his GFS 3-hr plots pouting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 not sure if any snow falls before hr 36 in phl, but from hr 36-42 pretty much phl to western skook co .25-.5 on north and east...south of that .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr 48 has another .25-.5 from center city to abe to dingmans ferry on north and east... south of that .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 LI getting crushed at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Good stuff, and thanks for the explanation. Hope that didnt come off as challenging you guys, didnt intend it to and I know how much thought you guys put into everything! Not at all that may be something being considered today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr 54 its out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gone at 54. still nice snows for many once it changes, correct Tom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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