chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 A little less generous with back-end snows than 6z in phl area but not big differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Fwiw, SV snow maps have 4-8" from Philly to NE PA. 2-4" from Lanc- back towrds state college Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Handling on convection around storm will be key does it wobble east for a while Friday as modeled on the GFS and with yesterday's solutions? Still a decent period of snow on the backside Friday night but no where near the NAM PHL and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Question for the mods... correct me if I am wrong, but aren't we at the point where we favor short range models over the GFS? Not being a weenie for the NAM... but is there any weight one way or the other? Mesoscale models maybe for deformation banding and CCB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I've been very worried about subsidence on the western flank of that CCB. Could get ugly. Yes I saw this yesterday as well. Common between frontal systems and tropical systems, might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wouldn't say it looks "nothing" like it. The 500mb is nearly identical in setup, just a bit further east. I'm merely going off surface stuff which it looks nothing of the sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How were the temperature profiles for PHL on the GFS run? Does 850 go above 0 at any point? I think the precip will be there but we need to work on lowering the temps through the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 850 goes north of phl hr33-hr36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Question for the mods... correct me if I am wrong, but aren't we at the point where we favor short range models over the GFS? Not being a weenie for the NAM... but is there any weight one way or the other? Mesoscale models maybe for deformation banding and CCB? I'd weight the SREFs a lot higher than the op NAM, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow on western edge depends on enhancement when northern trough swings through. GFS is intermediate between SREF+NAM. Depends on weather moisture is thrown back or robbed by offshore system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'd weight the SREFs a lot higher than the op NAM, imo Absolutely. Thank you for answering. Assuming the Euro is in similar "already served its usefulness" range similar to GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Absolutely. Thank you for answering. Assuming the Euro is in similar "already served its usefulness" range similar to GFS? Euro is a bit better, only because of the finer resolution and better convective parameterization schemes. It's basically almost a mesoscale model already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 It goes without saying that there is going to be a sharp cut-off between those with plowable snow on Saturday and those with essentially nothing. Right now, it is anybody's guess where that cutoff will be, but I guarantee that at least a few of us will be miserable and (hopefully) at least a couple of us (and ideally most of us) are going to be very happy. Sadly, only time is going to tell on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The GFS is pretty cool between 21z-00z as the northern stream influence affects omega. The southern stream's initial forcing gets as far west as NYC / adjacent NE NJ suburbs. But, as the UVM expands and intensifies in response to the incoming deformation zone, an awesome "comma head" blossoms up over the area. Despite the weird 00z 0°C at 850mb, wet bulbs are below / near from PHL north with the lower RH there (around 90%). Looks like good dendrite making on the soundings but not quite as unstable as the NAM of course. Looking forward to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Question for the mods... correct me if I am wrong, but aren't we at the point where we favor short range models over the GFS? Not being a weenie for the NAM... but is there any weight one way or the other? Mesoscale models maybe for deformation banding and CCB? Even though precip will be starting in less than 24 hours, the "big show" (or in this case, the big snow) for anybody in the wider Philly area won't be developing until later tomorrow and more likely overnight for those in the I-95 corridor and to the east, so the good stuff is really 36+ hours out and well beyond the NAM's wheelhouse (if it even has a wheelhouse). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 can anyone give a breakdown of start times and precip types expected in central jersey tomorrow...is it going to mainly be just a sloppy mix until later in the afternoon, debating about presalting tomorrow morning to take care of the early frozen stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 DT posted this 12GFS snow map from WB site: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Just ran the Wxsim model with the NAM 12z and GFS 6z - still think this is running a bit too warm but here is the breakdown for the NW Philly burbs Mix of Snow/Rain beginning by 5am tomorrow morning - the mix continues all day with temps just above freezing (I have my doubts on this aspect) around 0.59" of precip falls before turning quickly to heavy snow tomorrow evening by 6pm - snow continues then till almost daybreak saturday AM with between 4" to 6" of snow before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 NAM has 0.45 as snow at phl. Don't have GFS yet but it will be similar. Once you get SW of ttn and out of the tight NAM gradient not that much difference between NAM+GFS in snow amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I will take this in a hearbeat. NAM WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you live west of the Pocono plateau, down the app trail, through carbon county, the I-81 corridor, Tamaqua, Pottsville down to Allentown to reading on west I would be worried about subsidence and that sharp cut off. Traditionally that seems to be where it sets up. Probably too soon to say, but once those radar echoes halt the northwest progression, it's game over if you're outside of that area once the storm is due east and pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you live west of the Pocono plateau, down the app trail, through carbon county, the I-81 corridor, Tamaqua, Pottsville down to Allentown to reading on west I would be worried about subsidence and that sharp cut off. Traditionally that seems to be where it sets up. Probably too soon to say, but once those radar echoes halt the northwest progression, it's game over if you're outside of that area once the storm is due east and pulling away. 100% agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 If you live west of the Pocono plateau, down the app trail, through carbon county, the I-81 corridor, Tamaqua, Pottsville down to Allentown to reading on west I would be worried about subsidence and that sharp cut off. Traditionally that seems to be where it sets up. Probably too soon to say, but once those radar echoes halt the northwest progression, it's game over if you're outside of that area once the storm is due east and pulling away. Absolutely, and it has been a concern of mine. We've seen it plenty of times during the back to back epic winters a few years back. Many of those storms had tight gradients for one reason or another, and we ended up with 2 or 3 inches in my location, while areas farther south, east, and northeast by no more than 100 miles got pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GEFS 12z means total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Snow on western edge depends on enhancement when northern trough swings through. GFS is intermediate between SREF+NAM. Depends on weather moisture is thrown back or robbed by offshore system. How true. It's a wait and see for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Yea it's going to be painful to see where this drop-off sets up. Fingers and toes are crossed over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Between 00z-06z on the GFS, the soundings grow pretty impressive across eastern PA into PHL and northern/central NJ. There is a pretty large SGZ for our area with strong frontogensis/mid level convergence. Definitely the increasingly cold profiles / convergence (less wind) means that I was wrong about ratios before. While they may be on the order of 5-10:1 before 00z, they would increase above 10:1 with this back edge late evening / overnight. I'll let the Mt. Holly mets take it from here but it looks like a solid chance at 12-18:1 ratios with this part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Between 00z-06z on the GFS, the soundings grow pretty impressive across eastern PA into PHL and northern/central NJ. There is a pretty large SGZ for our area with strong frontogensis/mid level convergence. Definitely the increasingly cold profiles / convergence (less wind) means that I was wrong about ratios before. While they may be on the order of 5-10:1 before 00z, they would increase above 10:1 with this back edge late evening / overnight. I'll let the Mt. Holly mets take it from here but it looks like a solid chance at 12-18:1 ratios with this part of the storm. Is it all of eastern pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Between 00z-06z on the GFS, the soundings grow pretty impressive across eastern PA into PHL and northern/central NJ. There is a pretty large SGZ for our area with strong frontogensis/mid level convergence. Definitely the increasingly cold profiles / convergence (less wind) means that I was wrong about ratios before. While they may be on the order of 5-10:1 before 00z, they would increase above 10:1 with this back edge late evening / overnight. I'll let the Mt. Holly mets take it from here but it looks like a solid chance at 12-18:1 ratios with this part of the storm. 15:1 for a time after 00z is possible. Would not go much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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