Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Add the 12z RGEM to that list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Before ppl cream in their pants lets just wait for a major model to show a hit like the coo coo nam. Should know very shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Before ppl cream in their pants lets just wait for a major model to show a hit like the coo coo nam. Should know very shortly. ^^^^ this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 gfs running, looks good at hr15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When the NAM is nearly an outlier in the SREF ensemble, you know that it's probably not at its best, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The gfs looks like the northern stream is digging more, its also slower. The southern storm looks stronger also compared to 6z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Before ppl cream in their pants lets just wait for a major model to show a hit like the coo coo nam. Should know very shortly. Tom...any hints on the current appearance and structure of the storm as it approaches out of GMex? Looks like a very healthy precip shield. I know radar-casting and wishcasting are frowned upon...but the storm looks seriously juicy as it approaches the Atlantic seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr21, surface looks good thru central bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr21, surface looks good thru central bucks just fyi, you shouldn't be going off surface the mid level and lower level get warm like 925mb and 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 At 12 hr looks a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 What does the Plume Viewer show? These are new me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr30/33 snow around abe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 When the NAM is nearly an outlier in the SREF ensemble, you know that it's probably not at its best, guys I get that, but the SREF mean for ABE is 8" ... WSW worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 good steps, northern stream phasing in a good bit faster like 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 it's not going to be a further west low track that gives philly snow, it's going to be a further west deformation zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Not going to be a NAM solution. Wicked dry slot over ECPA @30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I get that, but the SREF mean for ABE is 8" ... WSW worthy Yeah, I think everyone is sure that the LV, Pocs, and N NJ are in for a good system. People going nuts over the 12z NAM in, e.g. TTN or Bensalem, should use a little more caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr36 snow into central bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 and as you can see the nam was on crack, looks nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 hr39 I95 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Nam is def a western outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 and as you can see the nam was on crack, looks nothing like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Gfs is se of the benchmark. EaStern pa from Philly to poconos are going to have helluva gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 much less precip for all but still some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 and as you can see the nam was on crack, looks nothing like it. I wouldn't say it looks "nothing" like it. The 500mb is nearly identical in setup, just a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 moving out at 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Real ugly gradient running the pa/Nj border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sharp gradients again west of ABE. Too close to comfort. Verbatim 6" on the GFS, but 30 miles west is 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The low level forcing / frontogen associated with the southern wave on the GFS focuses the crazy band about 100-200 miles east of where the NAM placed it (hence the 3-4" QPF bomb on NAM). GFS still wraps in the comma head / northern stream deformation zone for NE PA and N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Sharp gradients again west of ABE. Too close to comfort. Verbatim 6" on the GFS, but 30 miles west is 3". I've been very worried about subsidence on the western flank of that CCB. Could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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