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FORECAST DISCUSSION: "The Storm They Couldn't Punt" 2/7-2/9


HM

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I thought it looked like March 2001 all over again??? 

 

Adam are we still on for a torch this weekend into mid-Feb? Thanks in advance....

Did this SSW even do anything? The MJO is overrated right? Isn't this 2011-12 all over? Please respond asap...ok bye toodles

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If the NAM is correct, this one is going to hurt for a while in PHL-S NJ. Also, small timing issues could result in a later interaction, delaying the pivoting and screwing the southern half of the area. That SW edge will be swinging in fast so that northern s/w has to dig quickly and catch this POS.

NAM steps into the euro camp and says..."what 00z run solution are you talking about"

Does NAM put Philly metro in CCB? Dynamic cooling in the column? Less rain?

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Wow I've never even seen some of those colors of the NAM.  Normally I'd say it overdoes precip on these big events, but we're inside 24 hours now so I'm not sure how much that applies.  And look at those gradients in Jersey and PA.  It's nearly single digits miles between 6/7" and 25"+.  Insane--even during the '09-'10 winter the gradients weren't quite that extreme.

 

Good luck to you folks.

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Does NAM put Philly metro in CCB? Dynamic cooling in the column? Less rain?

 

Yes between 21z-00z the temps are responding to the developing CCB. But there still is enough warm air advected in beforehand that there is rain. If the 850mb 0C holds over PHL, like the euro, the amount of rain will be much reduced.

But it is a give/take situation. Something like the NAM is going to be loaded with warmer, moister air. So, I'm not really sure there is a true solution of all snow and a lot of it in PHL with this setup.

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